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If M7 hears peoples’ grievances and acts, a revolution will be averted

Revolutions that overthrow long established regimes happen swiftly. But conditions leading up to them take longer to crystallize. Revolutions thus occur in countries where regimes are incapable of adjusting to the demands of the people. Revolutions such as those in France, Mexico and Russia occur in stages. They are preceded by enlightenment or reform movements whose suggestions are ignored, then the regime collapses followed by a full scale civil war. Countries where revolutions occur exhibit similar characteristics. In France, Mexico and Russia the respective previous decade was marked by famine and economic crisis. The three countries were also predominantly agrarian in which the peasants who formed the majority of the population were exploited and starving. The three elements of hunger, economic crisis and agrarian society define today’s Uganda.

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“It is better to reform than to have a political revolution” – lessons for Uganda

During the debate leading up to the Reform Act of 1832, Thomas B. Macaulay a Whig member of British Parliament made a memorable observation: “It is better to reform than to have a political revolution”. The successful 1830 revolution in France sounded a warning about what could happen in England if the middle class and industrial leaders’ demands for participation in the political process were not addressed. The Whigs who won the 1830 general elections “realized that concessions to reform were superior to revolution”. An election reform bill was introduced and became the Reform Act in 1832. The law gave explicit recognition to the changes that accompanied the Industrial Revolution including creation of the working class. The Reform Act of 1832 together with repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846 saved Britain from the 1848 revolutions that swept across Europe. The working class demands that were not accommodated in the Reform Act were taken care of in the second half of the 19th century.

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The causes and outcomes of the French Revolution

The article has been written upon request to provide an easy-to-read account of what caused the French Revolution and its consequences focusing on those areas of relevance to today’s Uganda. Because of this narrow scope, the coverage will be selective. The revolution was a manifestation of what had been going on for many years dating back to the death of Louis XIV in 1715. He left the country saddled with financial difficulties because of expensive wars and extravagant lifestyle at his royal court. Louis XV and Louis XVI made the situation worse, undermining and ultimately causing the Old Regime to be abolished during the French Revolution of 1789-99. The enlightenment thinkers’ ideas and American Revolution influenced and enhanced the course of events.

In Europe the 18th century was characterized in large part by radical intellectual thinkers known as philosophers who challenged the way people thought about government and society dominated by tyranny, injustice, superstition and intolerance. They wanted a world based on reason, tolerance and equality and in which people knew their rights and freedoms. They railed against moral decadence and inequality. They pointed out that man had been born free but was in chains everywhere. The philosophers examined the shortcomings of royal absolutism and called for limited monarchy, separation of powers between the executive, the legislature and the judiciary as well as representative government. They underscored that if the contract between the people and the government had been breached the people had the right to remove that government from power. These ideas contributed to the American Revolution which, in turn, had a direct influence on the French Revolution.

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When people demand change, they can’t be stopped

I have followed and participated in Uganda politics since before independence. Those at Butobere, Ntare, Rukungiri, Nairobi, Berkeley (USA), Arusha, Brussels (Belgium), Addis Ababa, Lusaka and Mbabane (Swaziland) where I was born, studied or worked and now New York where I reside will recall the political discussions we had and are now having about the desire for Ugandans and Africans to take charge of their own destiny. The lesson I have learned is that when people are determined for change, they will get it regardless of the hurdles on the way. We used to hear that Africans were not ready for independence. They needed more time and guidance. They were like children beginning to walk or to ride a bicycle. Some even argued that people in Southern Africa would never be liberated in our lifetime. Ready or not, the people of Uganda and Africa pushed on and got independent.

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NRM has become a liability for its sponsors and supporters

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) came to power with domestic and external sponsors (those who fund and champion its cause) and gained supporters (those who are won over). The original sponsors and supporters of NRM inside Uganda had suffered political losses under Obote’s government – Catholics had lost elections twice to UPC and Buganda had lost the kingdom and ‘Lost counties’ referendum. Those who sponsored and supported NRM outside Uganda did not trust Obote despite his pledge to introduce capitalism under structural adjustment. They believed he was still a socialist and could not be trusted. The common characteristic is that those against Obote and UPC were in a hurry and could not wait for the next elections in 1985 or 1986 to defeat UPC that won the 1980 elections. They chose a military option for quicker results. Various guerrilla groups were formed, some of them merged into the NRM. NRM captured power in 1986 exactly five years when elections were due. So the results were not quicker but were clearly very destructive of lives, property and infrastructure and many deficits still remain unresolved.

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Uganda: Let us mean what we say about national unity

We have heard calls for national unity for a very long time. Yet national unity has not been realized. If anything national division has become the norm witness the division of Uganda from 18 districts at one time to over 100 districts today operating virtually as independent entities. One day you hear some commentators on radio or in private conversation claiming they belong to their tribe or region first and the next day they preach Uganda first.

National unity should be preached out of conviction, not out of convenience. There is enough evidence that “unity of convenience” to solve immediate problems has caused medium and long term troubles, some of them very serious. We should constantly remind ourselves of these experiences in order to do better. Elections for whatever office, assignments and promotions should be based on merit, on what individuals have accomplished and what they can offer to Uganda not on empty promises or who they are or where they come from or what faith they follow or their age or their gender.

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Banyankole are not responsible for the suffering in Uganda

Accusations have increased in frequency and intensity that Banyankole have sole responsibility for the suffering being experienced in Uganda, implying punitive measures when the time comes. There were reports that after the brutal manner in which the demonstrators were handled in Kampala in 2009 by security forces, some people vowed that Banyankole would pay a commensurate price including innocent ones that had nothing to do with the disproportionate use of force. Anybody coming from southwest Uganda has been defined as a Munyankole and some of them have been assaulted. Banyankole are therefore wondering on which side to stand: with a tiny group of rulers from Ankole who are causing the chaos and suffering in Uganda or those who are opposed but have vowed to punish any Munyankole when the time comes.

Warnings have gone out that those who accuse Banyankole either in their individual capacity or as representative of groups should check their facts first to avoid harming innocent people. Southwest Uganda has a complex history of indigenous and migrant people and of rulers and ruled. Since the late 1950s many immigrants have crossed into southwest Uganda and pose as Banyankole or Bakiga. Some have joined the rulers from Ankole and are contributing to the suffering of the majority of Ugandans. We therefore need to know who is who from southwest Uganda and who is doing what. Without this disaggregated information innocent Banyankole and Bakiga or even immigrants and their properties may come under attack for nothing.

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Why & how nonviolence worked in the Iranian revolution – lessons for Uganda

The political, economic, social and moral developments in Uganda that have been accumulating since the 1990s made worse by the stolen elections in 2011 and economic hard times might trigger a regime change or increase instability and violation of human rights and fundamental freedoms. Those in favor of regime change are either campaigning to use force because according to them that it is the only language NRM military dictatorship understands or civil resistance. Besides working, nonviolence is less destructive than war. The example of a successful nonviolent resistance that toppled the Marcos regime in the Philippines has already been presented. Marcos went into exile. The Iranian civil resistance that toppled the Shah of Iran in 1979 is another. These two examples should convince those Ugandans still bent on the use force. Targeted assassinations and guerrilla tactics were tried in Iran and did not work.

Before presenting the nonviolent methods that were applied, let us review the conditions that triggered resistance to the Shah and his regime. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi came to power in 1941. He lost power to the elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq between 1951 and 1953. With help of western powers the Shah regained control of the country and ruled with an iron fist thereafter, jailing political activists, intellectuals, members of the religious establishment etc. He shut down independent newspapers and employed extensive security instruments including the dreaded secret police (SAVAK) and the military to eliminate dissent.

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Christmas sermons have called for new leadership in Uganda

The tradition of religious sermons in Uganda involved a prayer wishing the president and his government wisdom to govern justly, peacefully and lift everyone out of poverty and vulnerability. These messages were particularly forceful during the Christmas and New Year celebrations.

Of late, however, this tradition has changed as human condition has degenerated to sub-human level witness human sacrifice and trafficking and biting poverty in a country that is overwhelmingly religious and potentially rich where citizens are taught to care for one another, respect and protect human life.

Initially religious leaders expressed their discomfort with failing NRM policies indirectly, hoping that the government would take a hint and make appropriate changes. However, as time passed, the situation got worse – liberty, justice and dignity came under attack by government policies and military action. Those who demanded improvements in their rights and freedoms including the right to work and freedom to walk to work through peaceful demonstrations were attacked by the government using disproportionate force which resulted in deaths, wounded and detained innocent people some of them charged with treason punishable by death.

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2011 was a troubling year for Uganda

Twenty eleven was a year in which, inter alia:

1. “The Pearl of Africa” fell and faded again at home and abroad;

2. The costs of elections exceeded benefits;

3. Graduates from Dar es Salaam eclipsed those from other universities in strategic areas;

4. Corruption became so rampant that cabinet ministers and senior officials pointed a figure at the source;

5. NRM government demonstrated insensitivity and non-caring for Ugandans in the midst of unprecedented high prices, youth unemployment, poverty and collapse of institutions that made Ugandans proud like Mulago national referral and teaching hospital;

6. NRM dangerously drove the East African economic integration and political federation bus with a potential for permanently changing the demographic map of Uganda;

7. The economy of Uganda became unhinged reflecting NRM’s failure to adjust to a shift from pure neo-liberalism to public-private partnership;

8. Bahororo ruling clique in the NRM tightened its hold on power and is preparing the young generation to take over and continue to implement the 50 year master plan to be realized by denying other Ugandans access to good education, good and strategic jobs and resources resulting in mass poverty, vulnerability, powerlessness and voicelessness in the political, economic and social arena. Lack of opposition in Uganda, collaboration with Rwanda and possibly Kenya will pave the way for realizing the Tutsi Empire dream in the Great Lakes region disguised as East African political federation with Museveni as the first head;

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