I began thinking seriously about the potential and challenges of Uganda’s development early in my life. I decided then that whatever I did for a living, I would make room for research and writing on Uganda’s political economy. I have so far written ten books and created a blog www.kashambuzi.com. I also decided very early against a single sector education because knowledge cannot be compartmentalized. I therefore adopted a horizontal approach and studied geography, economics, demography, international law and international relations/diplomacy, sustainable development and history with a focus on how they interconnect with one another. Not least, I have developed a dialectical approach in research, writing and commenting on other writers’ work, meaning that I focus on those dimensions that are omitted to give a balanced picture and enable readers to make informed decisions. For example, when I read an article about a glass half full, I comment on missing dimensions. Put differently, I go for the glass that is half empty and vice versa.
With this background, I have followed Museveni and his NRM, reading statements made since 1981 and monitoring program implementation since 1986. Museveni’s statements were carefully crafted, multi-sector in approach and delivered with passion. Museveni’s grasp of Uganda’s potential and challenges was captured in the ten-point program which was subsequently expanded to fifteen to accommodate crucial areas that had been left out. His study of economics and political science presumably helped Museveni to develop a balanced political economy analytical approach. Besides a balanced approach, Museveni put Ugandans at the center of development which comes out clearly in the ten-point program. The design of programs such as the modernization of agriculture and poverty reduction action plan was well done multi-sectorally and putting Ugandans first. This work restored Uganda’s image and respect. Then troubles began to emerge in part because program implementation shifted from multi-sector to a sector approach and Ugandans came last as outlined below.
First, Museveni and his advisors measured development in economic growth and per capita income terms which from a very low base of Uganda’s economy gave impressive figures. The distributional aspects by region and class which would have put Ugandans first were forgotten. Consequently, income distribution favored a few people already rich at the expense of the vast majority of Ugandans whom Museveni had put at the center of his administration in his speeches. His advisors, foreign and national, focused on the glass half full as reflected in annual budget speeches. Views about the glass half empty were dismissed out of hand as sabotage that would not be tolerated.
Second, the implementation of programs designed as multi-sector became sector specific in part because of lack of inter-ministerial coordination which would have ensured interconnectedness. For instance, agricultural expansion through clearing more vegetation and draining wetlands did not pay attention to environmental and health outcomes. Consequently, environmental degradation and the associated adverse changes in hydrological and thermal regimes have occurred as manifested in frequent and prolonged droughts and floods and food shortages. Warming of local climate has attracted mosquitoes in places that were previously too cold and spread malaria with devastating consequences especially on children. Export-oriented economic growth focused on export diversification without paying attention to national food security. Consequently, hunger and malnutrition have increased resulting in deaths of children and adults and constraining full physical and mental development of children. Many infants are born underweight because their mothers are under-nourished as food exports triumphed over food security for Ugandans. Urban-based development particularly in Kampala city has attracted rural migrants that cannot be employed and accommodated adequately resulting in unhealthy slums harboring criminals that have necessitated increasing police services to maintain law and order thereby draining funds from development.
Third, and most damaging, Museveni has treated Uganda as his household, appointing to senior and strategic positions family members, relatives, in-laws and friends who are largely unqualified, much less experienced in public governance and private sector. Information and accompanying photographs have revealed the extent to which Uganda is being governed by those connected with the first family. State house is run like a private home. It is a public house for all Ugandans!
If Museveni had left power earlier, he would not be blamed for the intractable problems he is saddled with. Whatever reputation he built, it is fading very fast at home and abroad no matter what his defenders say. The diseases of poverty particularly the national scandal of jiggers which Museveni had blamed previous leaders for, deaths caused by hunger and rising insanity etc have defeated arguments and statistics that poverty has declined. The truth of the matter is that poverty is spreading and deepening. Jiggers are an external manifestation of absolute poverty. Since jiggers are found all over the country with Busoga as the epicenter, absolute poverty is a national problem. HIV and AIDS pandemic which had been declining has increased in part due to a policy switch from condom use to abstinence. Universal primary education which was lauded as a breakthrough has turned out to be a disaster. Pictures of trees and grass thatched and unsafe structures serving as classrooms in many districts, records of dropout and shameful quality education have shattered Museveni’s image. Add on the crumbling health care system manifested in women delivering on hospital floors unattended, stolen drugs etc and you have a better picture of health conditions in Uganda. Information and Communication technology (ICT) that has reduced Uganda to a tiny village has made it possible to see what had been hidden from public view. Museveni, his supporters and advisers never thought these ugly scenes would ever come to light.
These sad pictures and miserable stories have made it difficult for foreign friends of Museveni and his government to continue embellishing Uganda’s record. The situation has been made worse by Uganda’s record in DR Congo: mineral exploitation and alleged genocide of Hutu. These deficits have washed away Museveni’s record as champion of peace, stability, human rights and development. It is believed that these developments made Museveni skip the MDGs Summit in September 2010 which was the main event of the 65th session of the United Nations General Assembly.
These economic, social, ecological, human rights and political deficits accumulated over the last 25 years are too complex and intertwined for Museveni to reverse. Ipso facto, consensus is emerging that for the sake of the country and her people, someone else should occupy state house. The verdict is in the hands of Uganda voters.