Tag Archives: and

NRM is in disarray and won’t recover

The Roman Empire was severely weakened by luxuries, corruption and strife. The empire would have collapsed even without barbarian invasions. The invasions merely speeded up what was inevitable. NRM is in the same situation. It has been weakened by too much luxury, too much corruption and the emerging internal strife. If you want to understand the level of luxury, you keep your eyes wide open during the end of year season festivities – from Christmas Day to the New Year – in the countryside. I say countryside because that is where the differences between the rich and the poor are very striking. The NRM big shots and their families are driven in four wheel vehicles. They organize parties the moment they arrive in the villages. They organize extraordinary wedding parties, christening parties, thanksgiving parties; parties for relatives; parties for supporters, parties, parties, parties to show how rich they are until they return to Kampala. And on Christmas Day they come to church dressed expensively and immaculately from the head of the family down to the youngest member. And while these festivities and displays are going on the poor, in second hand clothes and without shoes gather around and watch in disbelief, their hands covering their mouths. And they begin to wonder how these people most of whom lived in poverty like them a few years ago managed to amass so much wealth.

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Museveni needs to reshuffle his administration and bring in new blood

News about Uganda is very depressing and has damaged our national pride, reminiscent of Amin’s days when Uganda was defined as a failed state with a dictatorial regime as now. Wrongdoing cannot be hidden any more thanks to advanced technology. Images of sleeping government leaders and advisers when the president was presenting the State of the Nation address (and it happened last year) have raised questions as to whether that is the best team he can find among 34 million Ugandans. Many Ugandans are convinced beyond any shadow of doubt that Uganda is in a political, economic, social, moral and environmental crisis, no matter what NRM government officials and friends abroad may say. That is not the team that will pull Uganda out of its endemic difficulties including unemployment, poverty and environmental decay. This is the moment when we ought to collectively put our heads together and find a lasting solution. Leaders who ignore the views of others and insist on governing by divine right cause harm to themselves and their nations as history has taught us.

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When you’re afraid of failure you will never make progress

Many Ugandans are very unhappy about the deteriorating situation in our country. However, they are unable to react because they are afraid that if they don’t succeed in regime change or make fundamental changes within NRM the consequences might be severe. They are therefore prepared to wait until time solves the problem or someone else does it for them. That is why some Ugandans are praying virtually daily for donors to come to our rescue. In life there are few, if any, improvements that occur without human involvement and sometimes sacrifices. Intervention by others is more often than not to promote or fulfill parochial agendas that could lead to more hardship for the non-participants in the process. Therefore in order to solve a problem those affected need to participate. Second, success or failure depends upon the goal one sets. For example, those who had planned to unseat NRM regime in 2011 elections and didn’t obviously failed. Those who criticized NRM economic policy succeeded because the government dropped the devastating structural adjustment program in 2009 based on the invisible hand of market forces and replaced it with National Development Plan designed to introduce a public-private partnership model. Third, there are goals that are achieved in stages. You start with producing and disseminating information in the news papers, radios and the internet as Ugandans are doing now. The information is then debated and synthesized into policy and strategy in the second phase. In the third phase the strategy is implemented. Implementation may not achieve all the goals or none at all. The momentum may be slowed or the movement even destroyed completely. History provides lessons we can draw from so that when we do not succeed or do so partially the first time we should not despair and throw in the towel. In some of my publications, I have deliberately drawn on history lessons to show that those that persist and are optimistic win in the end. Below are some lessons that discourage pessimism and defeatism.

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Ugandans are hurting and demonstrating against the government

The sketchy sad news reaching us through the New Vision report of a police officer killed in the nation’s capital Kampala, use of tear gas to disperse demonstrators and arrest of opposition leaders including the president of FDC and the Mayor of Kampala. Since 2009 demonstrations are increasingly becoming common especially since the fraudulent presidential and parliamentary elections of 2011. It is important to realize that demonstrations take place to register that something is wrong and needs to be corrected by the authorities elected to represent the interests of the people who are sovereign.

In Uganda many things have gone wrong led by corruption and the situation is getting worse. The public’s outcry and advice from other sources have been ignored by the government. The economic crisis and the attendant unemployment of youth, hunger, disease and poverty have reached intolerable levels. The emergence of rare diseases affecting children including the nodding disease and the one deforming children limbs is a cause of deep concern. Market forces and the private sector are not equipped to address all these mushrooming problems. The state has to step in and ease the suffering of the people of Uganda.

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Soldiers and protection of the public – lessons for Uganda soldiers

From time immemorial when people as individuals or groups complain or demonstrate, it means that something has been wrong for a while and needs correcting by the authorities. Responsible governments would engage in a dialogue and find a solution. But more often than not this is never done. Instead brutal force is used to silence dissent.

Peasant revolts that engulfed France, Germany, Britain and Russia among others during and after the Middle Ages represented efforts to end their suffering. Instead of dialogue, they were killed in large numbers. Those who survived were told to endure suffering on earth in order to enter the kingdom of heaven. Their children watched and listened and did not like what they saw and heard. They vowed their parents would not die in vain. They continued the struggle with better organization and leadership until feudalism was over. In Africa and Europe individuals like Machal, Mondlane, Tambo, Mandela, Neto, Pankhurst, Lenin and many others watched what was happening to their people or gender. They did not like it and dropped everything including their good careers and wonderful families and began the struggle to change the status quo and make life better for all.

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Has achievement of sound economic fundamentals benefited Uganda?

Although I have written a lot about Uganda’s economy, I continue to get requests from readers to write more and elaborate on issues that remain unclear to some. In doing so there is a risk of repetition. As I have observed before, I am not writing for professional economists but the general public that wish to understand some economic concepts and how they impact on their quality of life. This brings me to the notion of economic growth. In any economy economic growth is necessary but it can have meaning only if it contributes to tackling poverty and improving the standard of living of the population. Thus, economic growth in Uganda or elsewhere is not an end in itself although NRM has treated it as such. As a minimum, growth must meet the basic needs of education, healthcare, food, clothing and housing. So are sound economic fundamentals.

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Russian women got tired and rebelled

I know that change is coming to Uganda. But what kind of change: peaceful or bloody change; change from below or from above? Although some readers have distorted my message for whatever reason, I have consistently pleaded orally and in writing for peaceful change – to the discomfort of those who want war – so that every Ugandan lives in peace, security, equality, prosperity and happiness. I have encouraged mixing at all levels – political, economic, social and cultural – to minimize conflicts. But to make appropriate changes we need to know what is happening in our society first. It is reporting the findings of what is happening that has caused discomfort in some quarters. And from these quarters we are getting name calling, intimidation and distorted messages. But the impartial analyst has to report research findings. And that is what we have been doing in the great lakes region. Hopefully we shall all end up on the same page.

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Launch of National Alliance for Change

UDU statement

I thank the organizers of this important and timely conference for inviting United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) to the launch of the National Alliance for Change. The conference is taking place so soon after another important conference organized by FDC took place here in the City of London. This is a welcome recognition that when people unite they perform more effectively and efficiently than when they are divided.

Uganda is in a political, economic, social, moral and environmental crisis. It has been described as a failed state under dictatorial leadership. For the last twenty six years Uganda has been driven by wrong drivers, in a wrong bus, on a wrong road. The collapse in 2009 of the economic model pursued by NRM since 1987, the massively rigged elections in 2011 and the current severe economic crisis characterized inter alia by crippling high interest rates, unaffordable and rising prices especially of food and fuel, unprecedented level of youth unemployment, spreading and deepening poverty and the associated moral decay confirm that something is endemically wrong in Uganda’s political economy, calling for change of leadership and launch of a different political and economic development agenda. This is a task that Ugandans themselves have to shoulder with a helping hand from friends and well wishers.

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Post-NRM government will give greater weight to social protection

Sooner or later the NRM government will fall under the heavy weight of its incompetence, corruption, sectarianism and marginalization of capable citizens. NRM has no capacity for adjustment to the unfolding challenges.

NRM started off well with a mixed economy model combining aspects of neo-liberalism (laissez-faire capitalism) and neo-Keynesianism (demand management). This was a popular and pragmatic program that had been crafted by many Uganda stakeholders with different perspectives and ideologies.

Then in mid-1987 – suddenly and without public warning – came the Washington Consensus (WC) or structural adjustment program (SAP) that was imposed by the Bank and the Fund on a bankrupt government. WC stressed small state, private ownership of public enterprises, deregulation and liberalization, export diversification, balanced budget and primacy of the invisible hand of market forces – all to be implemented simultaneously. Sequencing was ruled out and NRM absorbed WC lock, stock and barrel. It was hoped that market forces would distribute equitably the benefits of rapid economic growth – itself a function of foreign direct investments – to all classes and regions and everyone would live happily thereafter.

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In Uganda religious leaders can make a difference

Our doctrine is that Ugandans will liberate themselves from Museveni’s military dictatorship and the NRM failed system via a wide range of instruments including mass media and collaboration with religious leaders. The international community is called upon to level the playing field as Ugandans embark on a journey to freedom through peaceful demonstrations which are an integral part of our human rights including the right to self-determination and crafting a governance system that accommodates specific interests. That the European Union and Commonwealth observer teams concluded that the February 18, 2011 presidential and parliamentary elections were ‘not free and fair’ is a commendable beginning.

From time immemorial religious leaders have played a vital role (and some of them paid a heavy price) in easing the suffering of people meted out by their leaders. For example, John Ball a follower of John Wycliffe contributed tremendously through speeches and writing (e.g. “All men by Nature Were Created Alike”) in support of English peasants that had suffered exploitation. The peasants revolted in 1381 resulted in the abolition of the poll tax imposed in 1380 which sparked the great revolt.

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