The Roman Empire was severely weakened by luxuries, corruption and strife. The empire would have collapsed even without barbarian invasions. The invasions merely speeded up what was inevitable. NRM is in the same situation. It has been weakened by too much luxury, too much corruption and the emerging internal strife. If you want to understand the level of luxury, you keep your eyes wide open during the end of year season festivities – from Christmas Day to the New Year – in the countryside. I say countryside because that is where the differences between the rich and the poor are very striking. The NRM big shots and their families are driven in four wheel vehicles. They organize parties the moment they arrive in the villages. They organize extraordinary wedding parties, christening parties, thanksgiving parties; parties for relatives; parties for supporters, parties, parties, parties to show how rich they are until they return to Kampala. And on Christmas Day they come to church dressed expensively and immaculately from the head of the family down to the youngest member. And while these festivities and displays are going on the poor, in second hand clothes and without shoes gather around and watch in disbelief, their hands covering their mouths. And they begin to wonder how these people most of whom lived in poverty like them a few years ago managed to amass so much wealth.
They soon learn that it is rampant corruption that has made them rich. And they learn more: that the rich accumulated wealth by robbing the poor. The funds for educating the poor were stolen; the money that would have been used to provide school lunch was diverted into private pockets; the money for the valley dams that would have provided water including for irrigation purposes was stolen and the regressive tax system has impoverished them. Anger builds up against the regime. That may explain why NRM is losing bye-elections. There are stories that the poor collaborated with barbarians to defeat the Roman rulers that had exploited and impoverished them.
The emerging internal strife is even more serious. First, there must be a disagreement between the president and the prime minister over land tenure and land use. The prime minister has been saying that land ownership must be transferred from subsistence farmers to large scale farmers (Ugandans and non-Ugandans) in order to modernize farming because the subsistence farmers are incapable. The president in his State of the Nation address stated that subsistence farmers with great potential have not yet been mobilized. He directed that all leaders including religious should support the 68 percent of peasant farmers to modernize and commercialize agriculture.
Second, contradictions in the president’s State of the Nation address and his budget speech read on his behalf by the minister of finance give the impression that the drafters have different priorities. Those who drafted the State of the Nation address are in favor of developing agriculture and manufacturing industries to create badly needed jobs and add value to products. This implies that affordable credit and loans would be made available by lowering interest rates together with smart subsidies, extension service and state intervention in partnership with the private sector. On the other hand, the drafters of the budget speech are monetarists of the Washington Consensus School with a focus on inflation control through high interest rates and regardless of the levels of unemployment and disguised employment (underemployment). They are also concerned about economic growth without paying attention to equity which presumably is left to the trickle down mechanism which has not worked in the last 25 years. Finally the monetarists are concerned about improving balance of payments by excessive devaluation of the Uganda shilling to make exports cheap in international markets and earn more hard currency but at the same time making imports expensive so industries cannot afford intermediate inputs in their manufacturing enterprises. This is a repeat of the failed structural adjustment program that was officially abandoned in 2009. These contradictions are worsening NRM position already weakened by excessive consumption and rampant corruption.
When this happens the opposition steps forward with an alternative policy and a team of new leaders. United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) has developed a National Recovery Plan (NRP). It is a comprehensive document with clear and action-oriented recommendations, easy to implement, monitor and evaluate. It has received wide support at home and abroad. UDU has departments and capable staff covering:
1. Democracy and governance;
2. Gender;
3. Youth;
4. Economic development;
5. External relations.
UDU will avoid NRM mistakes in the following areas:
1. We shall avoid winner-take-all arrangements. Nobody will lose their jobs simply because they worked under NRM government. Public servants serve any government in power;
2. All Ugandans in the diaspora will be welcomed home unlike NRM that suggested they stay there because new people were being trained;
3. Regions, districts and communities will be empowered to design and implement their development programs in accordance with their endowments, history and culture, thereby reducing the power of the central government;
4. Separation of powers at the central government among the legislative, executive and judicial branches will be restored to ensure that checks and balances are in place. The power of the presidency will be reduced significantly;
5. Economic and political integration into East Africa while acceptable in principle will be handled with great care unlike NRM’s approach of fast tracking political federation ahead of economic integration, taking into consideration how much national sovereignty will be surrendered, in what areas and to whom. We shall also ensure that Uganda makes net gains because Uganda has suffered endemic trade deficits under previous and current arrangements. We shall also decide which areas of national security should be declared non-negotiable borrowing from the European Union experience;
6. Political, civil, economic, social and cultural rights and freedoms will be respected.