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NRM has nowhere else to go but negotiate reforms

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) thought that it had created a favorable permanent situation and developed immunity against challenge after 1987 when it signed a stabilization and structural adjustment program (SAP) with the IMF, started to enjoy rapid economic growth (in large part because of excess capacity inherited in 1986 now almost exhausted) and established macroeconomic stability by keeping inflation in single digits through raising interest rates, balanced the budget by removing subsidies and dismissing public servants, accumulated foreign currency reserves in the central bank to guarantee continued imports for the rich and received massive external support.

NRM speeches were full of confidence and vibrancy stressing that market forces, laissez faire and trickledown would solve all problems. All NRM needed to do was to make sure that opposition was not allowed to say anything negative. The military, police, intelligence and prisons were expanded to deal with dissent. Lack of demonstrations was interpreted by the outside world as a sign of stability. Invitations to make speeches about Uganda’s success story at UN and G8 summits blinded NRM government to creeping signs of exhaustion and possible failure. Museveni even declared that there was no problem he could not solve.

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NRM must be unseated by peaceful means

Ugandans and the international community need to get together quickly to stop NRM and its leadership from driving Uganda into permanent darkness – it is already in darkness economically, socially, politically, morally and environmentally. The NRM and its military wing NRA applied brutal military force with core support of mercenaries to unseat UPC government through Okello in 1986. Ipso facto, one would be tempted to suggest use of force to unseat NRM government. However, the lesson we learned is that force is very costly in human and non-human terms. Force should therefore be avoided – unless in self defense – in removing NRM from power.

It is now recognized that NRM leadership is bent on staying in power indefinitely by force including through the ballot box witness the overwhelming use of the military during the 2011 elections. Waiting for 2016 to unseat NRM through elections is therefore a bad investment bound to yield heavy losses once again. In these circumstances removing NRM government from power can be achieved in three other ways – first, through the emergence of a de Clerk in the NRM, a Mandela in the opposition camp and a Macleod (British colonial secretary) in the international community to lead their constituencies in negotiating a genuine, lasting and mutually acceptable deal. De Clerk and Mandela worked against all odds to effect constitutional changes that facilitated black majority rule to prevail in South Africa. Similarly Iain Macleod worked against all odds to speed up decolonization in East Africa, averting potential violence. If this option does not work, the second one is to make Uganda ungovernable through civil or non-violent resistance. The third option which is preferable is to pursue both options simultaneously.

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Further reflections on East African integration and federation project

Following publication of my article titled “It’s time to rethink the East African integration and federation project” some commentators have advised privately that there is need to look more closely at the ‘real’ motive(s) behind the federation or closer union project in East Africa. The instruction by the Burundi East African Summit for fresh guidelines has rekindled interest in the need to reexamine the entire project going as far back in history as available information allows. Questions of nationalism, immigration and citizenship, land ownership and jobs, nation-state and a supranational authority etc have been raised.

The idea was first made public by Harry Johnston when in 1899 he called for closer union between Kenya and Uganda. With Tanganyika falling under British influence after WWI, the idea gathered momentum. Many aspirations were expressed by individuals and officials for creation of a ‘New Dominion’ to include Kenya, Nyasaland, Northern Rhodesia, Tanganyika, Uganda and Zanzibar. The geographic area would run from the Limpopo to the Nile. The hidden agenda was to create a (white) settler-dominated, self-governing federation. Lord Delamare and Cecil Rhodes among others expressed this interest. To present it openly would have created a problem in Africa and possibly in Britain and elsewhere. So the economic and administrative justification for a closer union was substituted.

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In Uganda minority has dominated majority through the barrel of the gun

Ugandans and development partners searching for a lasting solution to endemic problems in Uganda need to revisit the country’s history for some clues. Under normal circumstances it is the majority that dominates the minority. In Uganda it is the reverse. And that is why democracy and elections which express the will of the majority have not worked because the privileged minority has sabotaged the democratic process.

In pre-colonial times the movement and interaction of people – the so-called agriculturalists and pastoralists – produced two communities. The agriculturalists known as Bantu people entered Uganda from the west. Their economic activities were dominated by crops and livestock (goats, sheep and short horn cattle) and poultry and manufactured products using abundant resources including iron ore and timber. Because they settled in large areas with fertile land, good weather and plenty of wild game and fruits and vegetables they multiplied quickly. Because there was plenty of everything including foodstuffs that increased resistance against diseases, there was no cause for conflict and wars. Absence of war minimized mortality and also contributed to rapid population growth. When conflicts arose, some communities simply moved away or the disputes were solved by diplomatic means through negotiations. Accordingly Bantu people did not have standing armies for offensive or defensive purposes.

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Ugandans are hurting as 2011 draws to a close

As 2011 draws to a close, let us take stock of where we are as a guide on the way forward.

Uganda’s story begins with the colonial rule whose mission was “to bring peace, prosperity and justice to the less fortunate peoples [of Uganda]”.

Peace is understood to mean absence of conflict, torture and wars; prosperity to mean absence of poverty and its offshoots of hunger, disease and ignorance; and justice to mean fairness and equal opportunity for all.

All independence governments committed themselves to do the same.

While conducting a guerrilla war (1981-5) NRM was most critical of the failures of colonial and independence governments to fulfill promises in peace, prosperity and justice. NRM presented a blue print known as the ten-point program as an alternative to past failed policies and practices.

It’s now twenty six years since NRM came to power through barrel of the gun, having failed to gain power through the ballot box in 1980. Instead of enjoying the promised peace, prosperity and justice, the people of Uganda have experienced too much suffering and are hurting badly.

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Christmas sermons have called for new leadership in Uganda

The tradition of religious sermons in Uganda involved a prayer wishing the president and his government wisdom to govern justly, peacefully and lift everyone out of poverty and vulnerability. These messages were particularly forceful during the Christmas and New Year celebrations.

Of late, however, this tradition has changed as human condition has degenerated to sub-human level witness human sacrifice and trafficking and biting poverty in a country that is overwhelmingly religious and potentially rich where citizens are taught to care for one another, respect and protect human life.

Initially religious leaders expressed their discomfort with failing NRM policies indirectly, hoping that the government would take a hint and make appropriate changes. However, as time passed, the situation got worse – liberty, justice and dignity came under attack by government policies and military action. Those who demanded improvements in their rights and freedoms including the right to work and freedom to walk to work through peaceful demonstrations were attacked by the government using disproportionate force which resulted in deaths, wounded and detained innocent people some of them charged with treason punishable by death.

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All Ugandans will live happily ever after

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) engaged in a destructive guerrilla war (1981-85) with the overall objective of ending the long suffering of all Ugandans. This message runs through the articles compiled in “Mission to Freedom: Uganda Resistance News 1981 – 1985”. It is also the main theme in the ten-point program. Ending suffering by NRM would guarantee living happily ever after.

This goal was to be realized largely through forging national unity and good neighborly relations as well as ending corruption and sectarianism, promoting equitable and sustainable economic growth and social services using a mixed economy model.

The outcomes would have included stimulation of effective domestic demand for goods and services which in turn would have stimulated investment, employment and higher incomes and further stimulated effective demand (or raising individual purchasing power) so that everyone has the means to meet the basic needs and end the suffering that Ugandans have experienced for so long.

The goal and means of ending the long suffering of Ugandans contained in the ten point program was abandoned in 1987 and replaced with structural adjustment program (SAP) that focused on the invisible hand of the market forces, laissez faire capitalism and trickledown economics.

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What makes resistance succeed and lessons for Uganda

For resistance to succeed there has to be a national mission or rallying cry supported by the opposition. Here are a few examples.

1. The mission of the Cuban revolution was to free Cubans from exploitation, poverty and repression. The mission had popular support because most Cubans were exploited through poor pay and appalling living conditions including those who worked on tobacco and sugar cane farms. The mission resonated with peasants who joined the war or provided support in other ways. Many more were inspired to join the struggle after they witnessed the savage reprisal meted out by the Batista regime. Charismatic leadership and strict discipline of guerrillas were also crucial.

2. The mission of the Vietnam War guerrillas was to give land, rice and clothes to the people in South Vietnam who were very poor. The peasants rallied behind the Viet Cong guerrillas in large numbers because they supported the mission. Many more joined later because they resented forced resettlement in “strategic hamlets” which they felt denied them their liberty. Whole communities were involved in supporting the guerrillas.

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Ugandans need patience, honesty, optimism and constructive engagement

The massive rigging of 2011 elections has forced many Ugandans to conclude that NRM won’t be unseated through the ballot box. They have decided to put elections on hold until the playing field has been leveled after NRM is gone. To unseat NRM other means have to be applied. Consequently, Ugandans in the opposition are trying to find a common ground on the purpose and how to implement it.

Given Uganda’s history of divide and rule, north-south divide, master-servant relations, differences in religion, economic and political injustice, different cultures and personal ambitions, it is taking longer to establish a common platform and methods of engagement.

Thus we still have people in our midst who believe that without them in the lead nothing will get done. When they do not lead, they do what it takes to frustrate the efforts of others.

We still have in our midst some who believe that they were born to rule and others to labor for them. When those believed to be servants rise to leadership positions they are frustrated by those who think that God ordained them divine leaders, only answerable to Him.

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Converting part of great lakes region into Tutsi Empire

On November 12, 2011 political parties and organizations met in London to discuss Uganda under the theme: “Uganda at Cross-Roads: Which Way Forward?”

I had planned to attend the conference but was not able to get a visa because of a time constraint. I prepared a statement on the National Recovery Plan (NRP) as an alternative to the failed policies of NRM government. I submitted it to the organizers for their necessary action. The full statement is available at www.udugandans.org.

I had also planned to make an oral presentation on the impact of the silent pursuit of Tutsi Empire on Uganda’s future. Museveni has championed the idea for a long time disguised as East African federation, going as far back as his Ntare School days in the early 1960s. Museveni has worked on this project silently, methodically and incrementally, starting with capture of power in Uganda and using it to extend his imperial tentacles.

We are in the age of enlightenment and can no longer take things at face value regardless of the source – reason has become order of the day. Thus, to understand Museveni’s mind one needs to reason dialectically, by looking at and exposing that which is not said but done.

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