Uganda’s ‘explosive’ population growth has become the single most important development challenge to date. It has been reported in major newspapers in Uganda and at international conferences. Seminars have been conducted on the subject and more are planned. The population topic has attracted people from many disciplines, many of them with insufficient knowledge, experience or data to handle the subject professionally.
The causes of Uganda’s problems – poverty, unemployment, environmental degradation, crime, violence, food insecurity, urban congestion and slums, poor quality education and health care, lack of adequate savings and investments etc – are being blamed largely on Uganda’s high fertility rate. Development partners and experts are increasingly concerned about the future of Uganda if the fertility rate is not checked. One reporter in Observer magazine (Uganda) of August 8, 2010 suggested that “Uganda must start aggressively [using force] promoting and funding family planning services” reminiscent of what happened in India and China. Some readers have supported the suggestion without indicating how it should be done and on what groups.
Uganda’s population concerns first appeared in the second development plan (1967-71). When Amin came to power in 1971 he suppressed birth control activities initially but reintroduced them when the economy turned sour and he had to blame Uganda women for producing too many children that undermined economic growth prospects. Since the NRM came to power in 1986 it’s view has been that Uganda has not yet attained an optimal level of population essential for sustained economic growth and development. The unofficial resurgence of population concerns has coincided with the failure of structural adjustment – abandoned in 2009 – for failing to meet expectations including poverty reduction and sustained economic growth. As an aside, an attempt to introduce birth control with limiting the number of children per couple in one of Uganda’s neighbors has created all sorts of interpretations including a deliberate effort to reduce the numbers of one ethnic group, undermining the entire exercise.
To address population growth challenges adequately, Uganda needs to clearly understand the causes of population growth and their respective contributions, areas where population is growing very fast, fast or not at all. A general approach or one-size-fits-all analysis is not sufficient given Uganda’s recent history of wars, epidemics and immigration.
In any country, population growth is the result of births exceeding deaths and/or in-migrants exceeding out-migrants. Since the focus on Uganda’s population growth has been on fertility, this article will focus on immigration. When a person immigrates, he/she moves from one country into another. The article will examine immigrants into Uganda since the 1920s with a focus on Buganda to understand how such immigrants have contributed to population growth and sex ratios.
The introduction of cotton in Buganda in the early years of Uganda’s colonization and later coffee, created a shortage of labor. A combination of pull and push factors in Uganda and neighboring countries respectively attracted workers into Buganda. Most economic immigrants came from Rwanda and Burundi. Hutus moved into areas where cotton and later coffee were produced. Tutsi settled in areas of pastoral activities in Ankole, Buganda, Teso and Lango. During the interwar period the flow increased, with thousands walking across colonial borders from western Tanganyika, western Kenya and eastern DRC and in particular Rwanda and Burundi. In the late 1920s an estimated 46,000 immigrants per annum were entering Uganda from south west Uganda. The majority came from Rwanda and particularly from Gatsibu, Kigali and Ruhengeri and Belgian Congo near Rutshuru. Many were employed in Bulemezi, Kyagwe, Busiro, Mawokota and Butambala. By 1946, the estimated annual flow had reached 140,000 from Rwanda and Burundi alone. Many of these migrants stayed and learned Luganda (P. Curtin et al 1978, A. I. Richards undated) and adopted Kiganda names and dress. Europeans and Asians were also drawn into Buganda to participate in the cotton industry as ginners and middlemen.
Because of large male immigrants into Buganda, the 1959 census recorded 3,236,902 males against 3,212,656 females with a sex ratio of 1,008 per 1,000 females whereas in other provinces women exceeded men (Kashambuzi 2008).
Because of the political crisis in Rwanda since 1959, Uganda has received many Tutsi refugees and their cattle. The liberal British policy allowed refugees to settle among Uganda communities especially in Ankole, Kigezi and Buganda. Others were initially confined to refugee camps but later left and filtered into Uganda population raising population growth and densities. They moved to many places including Ntungamo, Mbarara, Bushenyi, Rakai, Masaka, Luwwero, Apac, Lira, Kitgum and Kumi. Their presence in the countryside and in urban areas raised questions in political circles. During the Amin regime many Banyarwanda joined the coercive organs like the notorious spy network, state research bureau and the army (G. Kamukama 1997).
At the time of independence in 1962, 40 percent of Buganda population was made up of Banyarwanda, raising ethnic tensions we are observing in Buganda. “[By 1963] one-third of these [35,000 refugees with 15,000 head of cattle] refugees appear to have settled with relatives in Uganda and never became a serious charge on the government of Uganda” (B. L. Jacobs 1965).
With the entry of Rwanda and Burundi into the East African Community and a liberal immigration and labor mobility policy Uganda has become a center of immigration particularly from densely populated Rwanda and Burundi with more Tutsi entering Uganda in large numbers. The fleet of daily buses from Kigali and Bujumbura to Kampala gives an idea about how many foreigners are entering Uganda with perhaps fewer exiting. The warm relations between the governments of Rwanda and Uganda have restricted immigrants of Hutus into Uganda since 1994 for fear of being forced back to Rwanda. Therefore Uganda is receiving a disproportionate number of Tutsi and most of whom end up in Buganda, adopting the local language and names but retaining their Nilotic Tutsi identity since they do not marry non-Tutsi women.
Southwest Uganda that shares borders with Rwanda and DRC has also attracted many Banyarwanda from Rwanda and eastern DRC’s North Kivu province. The population growth in south Kigezi bordering on Rwanda has been affected in large part by Rwanda immigrants pushing indigenous populations outwards to Ankole, Rukungiri, Bunyoro and Toro districts, etc. While addressing Masindi District administration in July 2010, General David Tinyefuza stated clearly that Bakiga had been pushed out of Kabale district by an influx of Banyarwanda immigrants forcing Bakiga to move to other parts raising tribal tensions including land conflicts.
Ntungamo district which shares a border with north east Rwanda has been receiving Rwanda migrants who in some locations have exceeded indigenous populations causing demographic distortions, occupying indigenous peoples’ land with all economic, social, ecological and political challenges. The late O. O. Amaza provided a map showing the location of Banyarwanda in Uganda. Most of them are found in Buganda, Lango, Teso and Ankole (SAPEM July 1994). The map has been posted on my blog in an article titled “Ancestry and origins of Bahima and their cousins”.
To conclude, a full understanding of the causes of Uganda’s population growth and design of an appropriate population policy will need to include information about immigrants into Uganda since the beginning of colonial rule. Migrations started initially for economic reasons and continued later on due to political instability and wars in neighboring countries – Rwanda, Burundi, DRC, Sudan and Kenya. Other immigrants are coming in from Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia.