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2012 must be a year of real reforms in Uganda

Message for Members of Parliament

Hon. Members

United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) wishes you, your families and constituents a Happy and Successful New Year.

2011 was a year of elections and extraordinary economic and social hardship, calling for reflection and consultation on the way forward. The time for promises is over. Now in 2012 is the time for real reforms to bring about real and positive change in the quality of life of all Ugandans.

Addressing Uganda’s challenges will require contribution from everyone including development partners under your leadership because you represent the people. You have a duty to promote, protect and defend their interests.

As part of its contribution to the debate on reforms UDU prepared a National Recovery Plan (NRP) and circulated it widely for comments. The draft was amended accordingly and presented at the UDU conference held in Boston (USA) on October 8, 2011 for debate after which it was adopted. The final version is posted at www.udugandans.org

UDU believes in resolution of conflicts by peaceful means in the first instance and in inclusiveness and full participation. It also believes in real reforms with win-win outcomes. For a start, in 2012 parliament should consider and adopt reforms in the following areas.

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Banyankole are not responsible for the suffering in Uganda

Accusations have increased in frequency and intensity that Banyankole have sole responsibility for the suffering being experienced in Uganda, implying punitive measures when the time comes. There were reports that after the brutal manner in which the demonstrators were handled in Kampala in 2009 by security forces, some people vowed that Banyankole would pay a commensurate price including innocent ones that had nothing to do with the disproportionate use of force. Anybody coming from southwest Uganda has been defined as a Munyankole and some of them have been assaulted. Banyankole are therefore wondering on which side to stand: with a tiny group of rulers from Ankole who are causing the chaos and suffering in Uganda or those who are opposed but have vowed to punish any Munyankole when the time comes.

Warnings have gone out that those who accuse Banyankole either in their individual capacity or as representative of groups should check their facts first to avoid harming innocent people. Southwest Uganda has a complex history of indigenous and migrant people and of rulers and ruled. Since the late 1950s many immigrants have crossed into southwest Uganda and pose as Banyankole or Bakiga. Some have joined the rulers from Ankole and are contributing to the suffering of the majority of Ugandans. We therefore need to know who is who from southwest Uganda and who is doing what. Without this disaggregated information innocent Banyankole and Bakiga or even immigrants and their properties may come under attack for nothing.

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NRM must be unseated by peaceful means

Ugandans and the international community need to get together quickly to stop NRM and its leadership from driving Uganda into permanent darkness – it is already in darkness economically, socially, politically, morally and environmentally. The NRM and its military wing NRA applied brutal military force with core support of mercenaries to unseat UPC government through Okello in 1986. Ipso facto, one would be tempted to suggest use of force to unseat NRM government. However, the lesson we learned is that force is very costly in human and non-human terms. Force should therefore be avoided – unless in self defense – in removing NRM from power.

It is now recognized that NRM leadership is bent on staying in power indefinitely by force including through the ballot box witness the overwhelming use of the military during the 2011 elections. Waiting for 2016 to unseat NRM through elections is therefore a bad investment bound to yield heavy losses once again. In these circumstances removing NRM government from power can be achieved in three other ways – first, through the emergence of a de Clerk in the NRM, a Mandela in the opposition camp and a Macleod (British colonial secretary) in the international community to lead their constituencies in negotiating a genuine, lasting and mutually acceptable deal. De Clerk and Mandela worked against all odds to effect constitutional changes that facilitated black majority rule to prevail in South Africa. Similarly Iain Macleod worked against all odds to speed up decolonization in East Africa, averting potential violence. If this option does not work, the second one is to make Uganda ungovernable through civil or non-violent resistance. The third option which is preferable is to pursue both options simultaneously.

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Further reflections on East African integration and federation project

Following publication of my article titled “It’s time to rethink the East African integration and federation project” some commentators have advised privately that there is need to look more closely at the ‘real’ motive(s) behind the federation or closer union project in East Africa. The instruction by the Burundi East African Summit for fresh guidelines has rekindled interest in the need to reexamine the entire project going as far back in history as available information allows. Questions of nationalism, immigration and citizenship, land ownership and jobs, nation-state and a supranational authority etc have been raised.

The idea was first made public by Harry Johnston when in 1899 he called for closer union between Kenya and Uganda. With Tanganyika falling under British influence after WWI, the idea gathered momentum. Many aspirations were expressed by individuals and officials for creation of a ‘New Dominion’ to include Kenya, Nyasaland, Northern Rhodesia, Tanganyika, Uganda and Zanzibar. The geographic area would run from the Limpopo to the Nile. The hidden agenda was to create a (white) settler-dominated, self-governing federation. Lord Delamare and Cecil Rhodes among others expressed this interest. To present it openly would have created a problem in Africa and possibly in Britain and elsewhere. So the economic and administrative justification for a closer union was substituted.

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Why & how nonviolence worked in the Iranian revolution – lessons for Uganda

The political, economic, social and moral developments in Uganda that have been accumulating since the 1990s made worse by the stolen elections in 2011 and economic hard times might trigger a regime change or increase instability and violation of human rights and fundamental freedoms. Those in favor of regime change are either campaigning to use force because according to them that it is the only language NRM military dictatorship understands or civil resistance. Besides working, nonviolence is less destructive than war. The example of a successful nonviolent resistance that toppled the Marcos regime in the Philippines has already been presented. Marcos went into exile. The Iranian civil resistance that toppled the Shah of Iran in 1979 is another. These two examples should convince those Ugandans still bent on the use force. Targeted assassinations and guerrilla tactics were tried in Iran and did not work.

Before presenting the nonviolent methods that were applied, let us review the conditions that triggered resistance to the Shah and his regime. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi came to power in 1941. He lost power to the elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq between 1951 and 1953. With help of western powers the Shah regained control of the country and ruled with an iron fist thereafter, jailing political activists, intellectuals, members of the religious establishment etc. He shut down independent newspapers and employed extensive security instruments including the dreaded secret police (SAVAK) and the military to eliminate dissent.

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In Uganda minority has dominated majority through the barrel of the gun

Ugandans and development partners searching for a lasting solution to endemic problems in Uganda need to revisit the country’s history for some clues. Under normal circumstances it is the majority that dominates the minority. In Uganda it is the reverse. And that is why democracy and elections which express the will of the majority have not worked because the privileged minority has sabotaged the democratic process.

In pre-colonial times the movement and interaction of people – the so-called agriculturalists and pastoralists – produced two communities. The agriculturalists known as Bantu people entered Uganda from the west. Their economic activities were dominated by crops and livestock (goats, sheep and short horn cattle) and poultry and manufactured products using abundant resources including iron ore and timber. Because they settled in large areas with fertile land, good weather and plenty of wild game and fruits and vegetables they multiplied quickly. Because there was plenty of everything including foodstuffs that increased resistance against diseases, there was no cause for conflict and wars. Absence of war minimized mortality and also contributed to rapid population growth. When conflicts arose, some communities simply moved away or the disputes were solved by diplomatic means through negotiations. Accordingly Bantu people did not have standing armies for offensive or defensive purposes.

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Ugandans are hurting as 2011 draws to a close

As 2011 draws to a close, let us take stock of where we are as a guide on the way forward.

Uganda’s story begins with the colonial rule whose mission was “to bring peace, prosperity and justice to the less fortunate peoples [of Uganda]”.

Peace is understood to mean absence of conflict, torture and wars; prosperity to mean absence of poverty and its offshoots of hunger, disease and ignorance; and justice to mean fairness and equal opportunity for all.

All independence governments committed themselves to do the same.

While conducting a guerrilla war (1981-5) NRM was most critical of the failures of colonial and independence governments to fulfill promises in peace, prosperity and justice. NRM presented a blue print known as the ten-point program as an alternative to past failed policies and practices.

It’s now twenty six years since NRM came to power through barrel of the gun, having failed to gain power through the ballot box in 1980. Instead of enjoying the promised peace, prosperity and justice, the people of Uganda have experienced too much suffering and are hurting badly.

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Christmas sermons have called for new leadership in Uganda

The tradition of religious sermons in Uganda involved a prayer wishing the president and his government wisdom to govern justly, peacefully and lift everyone out of poverty and vulnerability. These messages were particularly forceful during the Christmas and New Year celebrations.

Of late, however, this tradition has changed as human condition has degenerated to sub-human level witness human sacrifice and trafficking and biting poverty in a country that is overwhelmingly religious and potentially rich where citizens are taught to care for one another, respect and protect human life.

Initially religious leaders expressed their discomfort with failing NRM policies indirectly, hoping that the government would take a hint and make appropriate changes. However, as time passed, the situation got worse – liberty, justice and dignity came under attack by government policies and military action. Those who demanded improvements in their rights and freedoms including the right to work and freedom to walk to work through peaceful demonstrations were attacked by the government using disproportionate force which resulted in deaths, wounded and detained innocent people some of them charged with treason punishable by death.

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Uganda’s challenge for 2012

There is understandable frustration among Ugandans who are agitating for a quick regime change. They are complaining that opposition parties are not doing enough in large part for selfish reasons that prevent them to come together and fight as one.

Some are arguing that opposition parties are ineffective in large part because the leadership is from NRM or opposition parties have been infiltrated by NRM agents.

There are those who are getting impatient with a non-violent and diplomatic strategy of effecting political change and are calling for outright war because fire must be met with fire.

There are those who are tired of the elite that have done nothing under the NRM to break the chains that have kept Ugandans trapped in poverty. Instead they have lined their pockets with looted public money.

There are those who are complaining that many in the leadership – NRM and opposition parties – are not patriotic enough because they are not Ugandans.

There are those who are praying for emergence of de Clerk and Mandela in Uganda to hammer out an agreement for a new Uganda.

These voices of frustration are getting louder.

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In Uganda eradicating poverty and implementing the 50 year master plan are mutually exclusive

Let me end 2011 with this short message in part as a response to Museveni’s end of year message.

First, Ugandans must understand the simple truth: Museveni is committed to implementing Bahororo 50 year Master Plan which was adopted at his Rwakitura residence under his chairmanship on March 15, 1992.

To realize the Master Plan, non-Bahororo Ugandans must be kept poor economically, socially and politically by denying them what would empower them such as quantity and quality education, jobs, nutrition and access to resources. It is a zero-sum game. Because of this game, poverty has remained very high – over fifty percent – and some 20 percent in the lowest income bracket have got worse.

To explain high levels of poverty, youth unemployment, hunger, disease etc, Museveni has always blamed external forces and “Acts of God” beyond NRM’s control or the opposition. And he gets away with it! It is mainly NRM’s commissions and omissions that are overwhelmingly responsible for too much suffering in Uganda – a country so well endowed to make everyone happy with a surplus. In true democratic countries Museveni and NRM would have been voted out of power a long time ago.

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