As 2011 draws to a close, let us take stock of where we are as a guide on the way forward.
Uganda’s story begins with the colonial rule whose mission was “to bring peace, prosperity and justice to the less fortunate peoples [of Uganda]”.
Peace is understood to mean absence of conflict, torture and wars; prosperity to mean absence of poverty and its offshoots of hunger, disease and ignorance; and justice to mean fairness and equal opportunity for all.
All independence governments committed themselves to do the same.
While conducting a guerrilla war (1981-5) NRM was most critical of the failures of colonial and independence governments to fulfill promises in peace, prosperity and justice. NRM presented a blue print known as the ten-point program as an alternative to past failed policies and practices.
It’s now twenty six years since NRM came to power through barrel of the gun, having failed to gain power through the ballot box in 1980. Instead of enjoying the promised peace, prosperity and justice, the people of Uganda have experienced too much suffering and are hurting badly.
The methodology used to present performance has hidden the suffering and the factors responsible for it. But the situation is changing thanks to the boldness and openness in the media and slowly in parliament. Let us review briefly what has gone wrong in the areas of peace, prosperity and justice since 1986.
In politics and peace, the government and much of the outside world has interpreted elections as a measure of political progress regardless of the costs incurred. The northern and eastern war was seen by the outside world largely as an internal affair until very late when too much suffering had occurred.
The absence of fierce and regular demonstrations in the streets was also interpreted as a measure of peace and stability in the country, not the result of an authoritarian regime that has violated civil and political rights. Consequently, the impact of intimidation, arrest, imprisonment and torture has been grossly underestimated. Reports coming out from various sources are beginning to paint the real picture of absence of peace in Uganda and demanding corrective action.
While early elections were imposed by external forces in countries where regimes had come to power illegally, in Uganda it took ten years to organize an election in 1996. While multiparty politics was imposed on African governments, Uganda was exempted until very recently. Multiparty elections have produced very poor results which should have been condemned and declared null and void because of lack of a level playing field.
In the economic sector, the authority has used inappropriate methodology to measure development.
1. It has measured economic growth and per capita income as a national success;
2. It has focused on inflation control to five percent per annum to stabilize the economy;
3. It has presented modern residential construction on the hilltops of Kampala as good business;
4. It has presented the number of airlines, banks, hotels and other service enterprises as important to Uganda’s economy;
5. It has measured gross enrolment of students and construction of clinics as a good measure of human capital formation;
6. It has presented export diversification of raw agricultural materials as a good policy to earn foreign currency;
7. It has presented the large size of parliament and cabinet as well as the number of districts as a response to the wishes of the people;
8. It has treated rapid rural-urban migration as a sign of economic transformation from agrarian to a non-agricultural economy and society.
But NRM has ignored:
1. Unemployment, underemployment, skewed income distribution and the high level of absolute poverty of over 50 percent of Uganda’s total population;
2. High interest rates as detrimental to borrowing and investing in enterprises that create jobs;
3. The slums that are sprawling at the bottom of Kampala hills and elsewhere which have become breeding grounds for all sorts of ills;
4. Airlines, banks and hotels are largely capital-intensive and fill many of the few skilled jobs with non-Ugandans;
5. Education quality and high dropout rates which have resulted in functional illiteracy in an economy to be driven by knowledge and not muscles or raw material exports;
6. Export of agricultural raw materials has occurred at the expense of environment through de-vegetation of large swathes of land, deforestation, overfishing, export of foodstuffs traditionally produced for domestic consumption resulting in endemic hunger, underweight, and premature death;
7. Large size parliament and cabinet and many districts mean that disproportionate amount of scarce resources are spent on administrative functions and not on productive activities that create jobs and transform the economy;
8. Excessive rural-urban migration has deprived rural areas of economically active labor-force that cannot find jobs in urban areas thus causing the economy to suffer a double loss – production in the countryside and income in towns.
Provision of justice has been critically undermined by rampant corruption largely by public officials in high places that are virtually above the law, and sectarianism. Ugandans have been denied popular participation in designing, implementing, monitoring and evaluating policies, strategies and programs that affect their lives.
Thus lack of peace, prosperity and justice is responsible for too much hurting that Ugandans are experiencing.
Look out for those many Ugandans who will not be able to celebrate Christmas because they cannot afford it alongside those few families who will have too much on their dining tables.
Diverting attention from domestic problems to East African economic integration and political federation is likely to make suffering worse because so far Uganda has incurred deficits which won’t go away by creating an East African federation.
In fact chances are the situation will likely get worse through human and animal free mobility across national borders, competition for goods and services including jobs and land ownership.
Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi are likely to benefit at Uganda expense. Integration is expected to make everyone better off, not worse off.
Ugandans must take ongoing negotiations seriously by combining theory and experience and drawing lessons from EU and NAFTA. Uganda negotiators must do so on behalf of the people in present and future generations, not for the interest of the few.
Thankfully, Ugandans are getting enlightened witness debates in parliament and the media. They have developed a questioning mind and no longer take things at face value.
For example, Ugandans no longer accept external factors and ‘Acts of God’, laziness and drunkenness as the main problem. They see corruption, sectarianism and disinterest in the welfare of Ugandans as well as poor leadership in general as the root cause of hurting.
So the first hurdle namely identification of the problem on the way to finding a solution has been cleared.
There is recognition that NRM has deteriorated so much that it cannot correct the mistakes it has made, leaving one option namely removing it from power.
Doing so through the ballot box won’t work. NRM has accumulated skills at stealing that it simply cannot lose an election. So that option is closed. Those who want to waste time and resources may continue to entertain the false idea of defeating NRM in 2016.
This leaves two strategies: removing the NRM system by non-violent or violent means. The debate is on regarding the two strategies.
Ugandans that are leading debates for regime change must think very carefully and emotionlessly about the military strategy, looking at the history since slave trade and the impact wars has had on Uganda’s peace, prosperity and justice.
The success of Museveni’s guerrilla war must be assessed in a larger context of massive external support and the internal dynamics at the time as well as the damage it caused in the Luwero Triangle. The experience of war in northern and eastern Uganda since 1986 must also be taken into full consideration. Survivors of wars in Luwero Triangle and Northern and Eastern regions and outside observers should help us assess the wisdom of engaging in another war and whether they would support it.
On the other hand those who advocate peaceful means can point to examples where they have succeeded without much damage. The Ethiopian change of regime in 1974 was carried out through non-violence and removed a powerful imperial regime. The armed forces involvement towards the end was unnecessary. It only nipped people’s revolution in the bud and then unleashed unnecessary suffering to stay in power.
The Ethiopian rebellion was triggered by factors that are present in Uganda today. It began with the sharp rise in the price of gasoline and basic necessities including food while the ruling class continued to enjoy luxuries including feeding pets with large chunks of beef. This paradox brought social tensions to a boiling point.
At the start of 1974, students, teachers and taxi drivers decided enough was enough and demonstrated against a failed regime.
Taxi drivers were protesting the rise in gasoline prices, teachers freezing their salaries amidst galloping inflation and students regressive educational reforms which would separate children of the rich from those of the poor. The latter would be condemned to an inferior education system. The rebellion spread from the Addis Ababa cradle to broad masses and other areas.
University teachers and trade unions joined in and presented their demands as well. They demanded a minimum wage and pension benefits and the right to organize trade unions in public enterprises as well as free public education for all. Unequal land distribution was singled out as the root cause of poverty.
Some army divisions joined in as well. They mutinied, arrested their commanders and demanded urgent redress of their grievances including better pay and higher fringe benefits.
The impact of famine which had been hidden from public view suddenly became public knowledge throughout the world through photographs of starving and dying poor Ethiopians side by side with the emperor feeding the choicest cuts to his pet dogs.
The moral authority of the imperial regime crumbled. The emperor was deserted. The cosmetic reforms he made were rejected. Ethiopian demanded regime change.
The emperor was arrested while imperial guards and army generals looked on and helped into a beetle Volkswagen vehicle and driven away. The imperial regime was over in a very short time. Ethiopians demonstrated courage, determination and fearlessness to liberate themselves.
Changes of regimes in Ethiopia, Philippines, Iran and Eastern Europe took place by non-violent means. Ugandans should study these non-violent struggles and draw lessons that can be applied to Uganda with or without adaptation. Ugandans, however, must reserve the right to use other means should that become necessary.