Museveni is unlikely to step down voluntarily or through the ballot box

Yesterday, July 2, 2012, I wrote an article appealing to Ugandans to come together quickly and save Uganda from Museveni’s notion of metamorphosis or complete overhaul. Museveni prepared step by step what he wanted to achieve including sending messages or making observations in the form of questions after he has stated his view for those who cared to know where he was headed. For example, in his interview with John Nagenda shortly before he became president Museveni through a question posed by Nagenda (perhaps with Museveni’s encouragement) made a statement to the effect that there are two races in western Uganda – Ugandans of the white race (Museveni’s race) and Ugandans of the black race although both races speak Lunyankole language. He sent a convoluted message about white superiority and black inferiority. But his supporters including those in Ntungamo district have made it clear who is who and who deserves what in Uganda.

Let us not start war against NRM government

We know that when a government fails to take responsibility for the welfare of the people, it should be removed from power. In the last 26 years NRM government has failed to deliver basic services. Ugandans have tried to remove it from power through the ballot box without success. And it is not likely to happen in the foreseeable future without term limits and an independent electoral commission. Logically, some Ugandans are reasoning that since the ballot box has failed, we must resort to war. But some Ugandans have said no. This does not mean that those who do not want war are cowards. It means that they are pragmatic. Starting a war against a recognized government regardless of how it came into power will be condemned by the international community and come to the government’s rescue. In fact, NRM would welcome such attack to give it a golden opportunity to arrest real and imagined enemies of the state in the name of national security against terrorists and put them away for good. It would also help NRM divert development resources to war efforts and impoverish Ugandans further without being blamed. So Ugandans eager to fight need to understand fully the environment at home and abroad in which they are operating before definitive actions are taken.

Let us not start war against NRM government

We know that when a government fails to take responsibility for the welfare of the people, it should be removed from power. In the last 26 years NRM government has failed to deliver basic services. Ugandans have tried to remove it from power through the ballot box without success. And it is not likely to happen in the foreseeable future without term limits and an independent electoral commission. Logically, some Ugandans are reasoning that since the ballot box has failed, we must resort to war. But some Ugandans have said no. This does not mean that those who do not want war are cowards. It means that they are pragmatic. Starting a war against a recognized government regardless of how it came into power will be condemned by the international community and come to the government’s rescue. In fact, NRM would welcome such attack to give it a golden opportunity to arrest real and imagined enemies of the state in the name of national security against terrorists and put them away for good. It would also help NRM divert development resources to war efforts and impoverish Ugandans further without being blamed. So Ugandans eager to fight need to understand fully the environment at home and abroad in which they are operating before definitive actions are taken.

The ballot box has not worked in Uganda

The history of elections in Uganda has been a sad one.

1. The ballot box did not work in 1961;

2. The ballot box did not work in 1962;

3. The ballot box did not work in 1980;

4. The ballot box did not work in 1996;

5. The ballot box did not work in 2001;

6. The ballot box did not work in 2006;

7. The ballot box did not work in 2011

Consequently, the ballot box is rapidly losing meaning in Uganda and has come to be seen as a formality to meet donor requirements for continued foreign aid and technical assistance. The conditions that make the ballot box work such as independent electoral commission, independent judiciary and term limits do not exist in Uganda. Museveni who has become NRM and the Uganda government by concentrating power in the presidency has defied everyone. In the absence of a level playing field, regime change won’t happen in Uganda through the ballot box. Make no mistake about that. All the 2011 election observer missions reported lack of a level playing field throughout the entire electoral process – from voter registration to the announcement of results. Museveni who is bent on staying in power for life and converting Uganda into a dynasty is not going to allow:

Ugandans are hurting as 2011 draws to a close

As 2011 draws to a close, let us take stock of where we are as a guide on the way forward.

Uganda’s story begins with the colonial rule whose mission was “to bring peace, prosperity and justice to the less fortunate peoples [of Uganda]”.

Peace is understood to mean absence of conflict, torture and wars; prosperity to mean absence of poverty and its offshoots of hunger, disease and ignorance; and justice to mean fairness and equal opportunity for all.

All independence governments committed themselves to do the same.

While conducting a guerrilla war (1981-5) NRM was most critical of the failures of colonial and independence governments to fulfill promises in peace, prosperity and justice. NRM presented a blue print known as the ten-point program as an alternative to past failed policies and practices.

It’s now twenty six years since NRM came to power through barrel of the gun, having failed to gain power through the ballot box in 1980. Instead of enjoying the promised peace, prosperity and justice, the people of Uganda have experienced too much suffering and are hurting badly.

Ugandans need patience, honesty, optimism and constructive engagement

The massive rigging of 2011 elections has forced many Ugandans to conclude that NRM won’t be unseated through the ballot box. They have decided to put elections on hold until the playing field has been leveled after NRM is gone. To unseat NRM other means have to be applied. Consequently, Ugandans in the opposition are trying to find a common ground on the purpose and how to implement it.

Given Uganda’s history of divide and rule, north-south divide, master-servant relations, differences in religion, economic and political injustice, different cultures and personal ambitions, it is taking longer to establish a common platform and methods of engagement.

Thus we still have people in our midst who believe that without them in the lead nothing will get done. When they do not lead, they do what it takes to frustrate the efforts of others.

We still have in our midst some who believe that they were born to rule and others to labor for them. When those believed to be servants rise to leadership positions they are frustrated by those who think that God ordained them divine leaders, only answerable to Him.