Because the United Nations Commission on Population and Development has just concluded its 43rd session in New York (April 12-16, 2010) with Uganda delegation in attendance, this is the time to revisit Uganda’s demographic dynamics. According to the United Nations (2009) population estimates, Uganda’s population – using the median variant – grew from 5, 158,000 in 1950 to 33,797,000 in 2010. It is projected to reach 83,847, 000 in 2045 if no major changes take place.
At the national level, population growth is a function of births over deaths, and in-migrants over out-migrants. Therefore to understand Uganda’s population dynamics we need to disaggregate the contribution made by natural increase (births over deaths) and net migration (in-migrants over out-migrants). This disaggregation will help to understand better the causes of each component – why some social classes produce more than others, and why and where migrants come from. This disaggregated information will help authorities and their development partners to make informed and appropriate population policy decisions for each component.
As a geographer, demographer, economist and historian with a focus on the Great Lakes region, I have studied the region’s population dynamics in an integrated and historical manner taking into consideration political, economic, ecological and social factors. My findings show that Uganda is a country that has since the 1920s received more people from its neighboring countries especially those in the southwest corner than it has sent out.
Uganda’s economic attraction with a better governance system than the Belgian administered region acted as a magnet pulling in workers in cultivating and grazing parts of the country. Because Buganda was the growth pole with a focus on cotton and coffee production, it attracted more migrants from outside and within Uganda than any other region. Migrants skilled in cultivation were attracted to Buganda whereas those skilled in livestock herding scattered in all parts of Uganda where cattle were to be found – in northern, eastern, western and parts of Buganda. On balance more workers came from Rwanda and Burundi and were dominated by males. At one time the sex ration in Buganda showed more males than females whereas other provinces showed the reverse – a normal situation since by and large there are more females than males. Many of these workers stayed, married Uganda women or those who came in from their countries of origin, had children and contributed to Uganda’s population growth.
Since the late 1950s, Uganda has again received more migrants from the southwest corner because of political upheavals in the lead up to independence in 1962 especially in Rwanda and later in DRC. This time male refugees came in with their spouses, children and livestock and entered regions in southwest that were already experiencing rapid population growth and high densities like former Kigezi district. Because of political considerations and kith and kin bonds these refugees were welcomed into Uganda and advised to quietly spread in small numbers to other parts of the country with their cattle and to never reveal their origin. They were advised to learn local languages quickly.
The British colonial administration concurred with refugee integration into local communities because it did not want to be saddled with problems associated with refugee camps just before Uganda became independent in 1962. Thus, at the time of independence, some forty percent of the population of Buganda came from Rwanda.
Since independence many more refugees have entered Uganda and stayed.
Ugandans therefore need to know the contribution of migrants to Uganda’s population growth. This suggestion has been discussed many times with relevant Ugandans – demographers, statisticians, sociologists and historians, civil servants and ministers – and Uganda foreign advisers but the idea has fallen on deaf ears while many commentators – Ugandans and non-Ugandans alike – continue to raise alarm about Uganda’s population time bomb like Peter Mulira and Sam Akaki, to name just a few who have been most vocal on Uganda’s so-called population explosion.
Regarding the excess of births over deaths, Uganda authorities need to disaggregate the contribution according to economic classes. There is ample evidence that poor couples produce more children than wealthy ones. Their rationale is based on high mortality rate, dependence on more hands in a subsistence economy and on children in old age.
Let us add that lack of energy and alternative sources of entertainment induce a high propensity for sexual activity. I am sure some of the readers of this article have heard about what happened in one night in New York City when there was a power failure that forced couples to go to bed early. That night was full of bedroom activity and the outcome was the birth of many wonderful children nine months later!
If Uganda is keen on stabilizing population growth at an optimal level it has no choice but to address the poverty challenge. Contraception can help but it will not solve the problem. The education of girls and empowerment of women cannot be stressed enough as a more reliable and less controversial method of addressing the excess of births over deaths than any other alternative.