Freedom and prosperity will be earned by Ugandans

We have a saying in my culture that a child who does not cry, never gets fed. Those who have taught know that attention of teachers goes disproportionately to students who raise their hands in class or follow the teacher after class with questions. In a world with so many problems, attention is being directed to hot spots. Those who remain silent regardless of the extent of suffering will be sidelined. Going to church to seek God’s help is necessary but not sufficient. Calling for outside help is fine but you have to demonstrate what you have done. From time immemorial, freedom and prosperity have been earned by individuals, communities and nations through sweat and sacrifice. By and large those who succeed work the hardest and longest and sacrifice a lot. They reject what they don’t like and go for what they want. The poll tax was dropped in England in the 14th century because the peasants opposed it and revolted. The poll tax was again rejected in the 20th century because the British opposed it and removed from office the champion who wanted to reintroduce it. The English civil war was waged against the excessive demands and behavior of the king. So was the French Revolution. Americans rejected taxation without representation. So the descendants of these people know the value of fighting for rights and freedoms. History is full of examples in all places on earth that unless you raise your voice and show your presence, you will not get heard and noticed. So the message for Ugandans is clear: organize, raise your hand and your voice, show your presence in the streets and wherever you are sit in front of targeted embassies or capitals peacefully and if necessary silently with placards conveying the message to get international attention! Ugandans in London have been doing an excellent job of demonstrating and we congratulate them. But don’t relax. Others should emulate this noble show of determination to make change happen at home. Museveni (the name will be used in official capacity with no personal criticism) is sensitive about Uganda’s image abroad which is already damaged. That is why he is skipping important conferences. He is afraid of demonstrations and reporters’ questions about rigged elections and when he will step down. In our struggle we should aim at involving everyone willing to cooperate including NRM members because the changes we are seeking will benefit everyone.

The scramble for Africa is being repeated in DRC

Just as Ethiopia participated in the scramble for and colonization of Africa with European nations, Rwanda is participating in the scramble for and re-colonization of DRC with Western nations. During the scramble for Africa European nations were particularly interested in raw materials. Ethiopia which was originally a small territory (Abyssinia) wanted in particular to expand its territory. Western nations are interested in DRC for its raw materials. Rwanda which is a small country is interested in DRC in particular to expand its territory like Ethiopia did during the first scramble of the 19th century.

Western arguments for breaking up DRC and steps being taken

During a mission to DRC in January/February 2010, meetings were held with representatives of some European embassies, United Nations and International NGO organizations and Congolese from all walks of life. All foreigners contacted complained that DRC is ungovernable because it is too big. If one goes by that criterion alone, then the order of breaking up large African states should start with Sudan, the largest (2,505, 813 sq. km) followed by Algeria, the second largest (2,381,741 sq. km) and then DRC the third (2,344,885 sq. km). Right now there are some voices in favor of keeping Sudan together. I have not heard talk about breaking up Algeria.

Donors have no basis to continue praising Uganda as a success story

Since the 1990s, Uganda under the leadership of President Museveni has been described by donors, foreign media and the United Nations as a ‘success story’ and a Washington Consensus ‘star performer’. When the National Resistance Movement (NRM) government came to power in 1986, Uganda had suffered fifteen years of political instability and economic collapse. There was excess capacity of idle labor, land and industries. The latter were performing at twenty percent of installed capacity. What Uganda needed was political stability and some foreign currency with which to import spare parts and inputs like hoes to rehabilitate the economy.

The government restored security in the southern half of the country and development partners provided funds after an agreement was signed with the International Monetary Fund in May 1987 making Uganda a ‘shock therapist’. With the blessing of good weather, excess capacity, resilient and hardworking people, the economy recorded rapid growth reaching 10 percent in mid-1990s albeit from a low base, inflation was tamed by reducing money in circulation, raising interest rates, balancing the budget largely by dismissing civil servants, introducing fees, eliminating some schools or classes and reducing teachers, charging fees for health services and reducing or eliminating subsidies. Because of these reforms, Uganda became a star performer and a successful ‘adjusting’ country.

The impact of poverty and migration on Uganda’s population growth

Because the United Nations Commission on Population and Development has just concluded its 43rd session in New York (April 12-16, 2010) with Uganda delegation in attendance, this is the time to revisit Uganda’s demographic dynamics. According to the United Nations (2009) population estimates, Uganda’s population – using the median variant – grew from 5, 158,000 in 1950 to 33,797,000 in 2010. It is projected to reach 83,847, 000 in 2045 if no major changes take place.

At the national level, population growth is a function of births over deaths, and in-migrants over out-migrants. Therefore to understand Uganda’s population dynamics we need to disaggregate the contribution made by natural increase (births over deaths) and net migration (in-migrants over out-migrants). This disaggregation will help to understand better the causes of each component – why some social classes produce more than others, and why and where migrants come from. This disaggregated information will help authorities and their development partners to make informed and appropriate population policy decisions for each component.

In Africa colonialism is still alive – and well

I have heard many times including at the United Nations commentators warning Africans to stop blaming colonialism for Africa’s ills. They argue that colonialism ended many decades ago and Africans must begin to take responsibility for their commissions and omissions. Before we decide – definitively – whether or not colonialism has actually ended, we need to examine what colonialism was all about and how colonies were administered.

Western countries colonized Africa in order to obtain cheap raw materials for their expanding industries, cheap foodstuffs for their growing populations, markets for their increasing surplus manufactured products and – to a certain extent – a home for their exploding population. Because European powers wanted to run colonies cheaply, they hired local agents through the indirect rule model. The agents had to be loyal and follow instructions from the few European colonial officers like the governor and district commissioners.

Uganda silently becoming two nations in one

After the release of Nelson Mandela I travelled to South Africa and visited many parts in towns and the countryside. I came to the conclusion that the deliberate apartheid policy of separate development between black and white people had created two nations in one. There was a first world nation of white people and a third world nation of black people. This dichotomy was evident through differences in education, healthcare, agriculture, housing, etc and overall standard of living between white and black people. I therefore rejected the generalization that South Africa was a middle income country based on GDP and per capita income figures. My subsequent research and observations about Uganda’s development trajectory since the 1990s indicate that there may be a potential for creating – unintentionally – two nations in one.

At the start of his administration in 1986, President Museveni correctly noted and repeated that Uganda was a one class society – of peasants. The tiny middle class which had emerged during the 1960s virtually disappeared during the chaotic period between 1971 and 1986. Drawing from the ten-point program, President Museveni stressed his government’s determination to transform Uganda from a class of subsistence peasants to a middle class society. It was underscored that the transformative policies, strategies and programs would leave no one behind. The modernization of agriculture blueprint underscored government’s determination to effect real transformation. Similar steps were taken in education, healthcare, food and nutrition security. These efforts were well received and earned the NRM government some support. Ugandans saw an opportunity for real transformation from subsistence to modern life.