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2012 must be a year of real reforms in Uganda

Message for Members of Parliament

Hon. Members

United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) wishes you, your families and constituents a Happy and Successful New Year.

2011 was a year of elections and extraordinary economic and social hardship, calling for reflection and consultation on the way forward. The time for promises is over. Now in 2012 is the time for real reforms to bring about real and positive change in the quality of life of all Ugandans.

Addressing Uganda’s challenges will require contribution from everyone including development partners under your leadership because you represent the people. You have a duty to promote, protect and defend their interests.

As part of its contribution to the debate on reforms UDU prepared a National Recovery Plan (NRP) and circulated it widely for comments. The draft was amended accordingly and presented at the UDU conference held in Boston (USA) on October 8, 2011 for debate after which it was adopted. The final version is posted at www.udugandans.org

UDU believes in resolution of conflicts by peaceful means in the first instance and in inclusiveness and full participation. It also believes in real reforms with win-win outcomes. For a start, in 2012 parliament should consider and adopt reforms in the following areas.

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Banyankole are not responsible for the suffering in Uganda

Accusations have increased in frequency and intensity that Banyankole have sole responsibility for the suffering being experienced in Uganda, implying punitive measures when the time comes. There were reports that after the brutal manner in which the demonstrators were handled in Kampala in 2009 by security forces, some people vowed that Banyankole would pay a commensurate price including innocent ones that had nothing to do with the disproportionate use of force. Anybody coming from southwest Uganda has been defined as a Munyankole and some of them have been assaulted. Banyankole are therefore wondering on which side to stand: with a tiny group of rulers from Ankole who are causing the chaos and suffering in Uganda or those who are opposed but have vowed to punish any Munyankole when the time comes.

Warnings have gone out that those who accuse Banyankole either in their individual capacity or as representative of groups should check their facts first to avoid harming innocent people. Southwest Uganda has a complex history of indigenous and migrant people and of rulers and ruled. Since the late 1950s many immigrants have crossed into southwest Uganda and pose as Banyankole or Bakiga. Some have joined the rulers from Ankole and are contributing to the suffering of the majority of Ugandans. We therefore need to know who is who from southwest Uganda and who is doing what. Without this disaggregated information innocent Banyankole and Bakiga or even immigrants and their properties may come under attack for nothing.

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Uganda’s challenge for 2012

There is understandable frustration among Ugandans who are agitating for a quick regime change. They are complaining that opposition parties are not doing enough in large part for selfish reasons that prevent them to come together and fight as one.

Some are arguing that opposition parties are ineffective in large part because the leadership is from NRM or opposition parties have been infiltrated by NRM agents.

There are those who are getting impatient with a non-violent and diplomatic strategy of effecting political change and are calling for outright war because fire must be met with fire.

There are those who are tired of the elite that have done nothing under the NRM to break the chains that have kept Ugandans trapped in poverty. Instead they have lined their pockets with looted public money.

There are those who are complaining that many in the leadership – NRM and opposition parties – are not patriotic enough because they are not Ugandans.

There are those who are praying for emergence of de Clerk and Mandela in Uganda to hammer out an agreement for a new Uganda.

These voices of frustration are getting louder.

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2011 was a troubling year for Uganda

Twenty eleven was a year in which, inter alia:

1. “The Pearl of Africa” fell and faded again at home and abroad;

2. The costs of elections exceeded benefits;

3. Graduates from Dar es Salaam eclipsed those from other universities in strategic areas;

4. Corruption became so rampant that cabinet ministers and senior officials pointed a figure at the source;

5. NRM government demonstrated insensitivity and non-caring for Ugandans in the midst of unprecedented high prices, youth unemployment, poverty and collapse of institutions that made Ugandans proud like Mulago national referral and teaching hospital;

6. NRM dangerously drove the East African economic integration and political federation bus with a potential for permanently changing the demographic map of Uganda;

7. The economy of Uganda became unhinged reflecting NRM’s failure to adjust to a shift from pure neo-liberalism to public-private partnership;

8. Bahororo ruling clique in the NRM tightened its hold on power and is preparing the young generation to take over and continue to implement the 50 year master plan to be realized by denying other Ugandans access to good education, good and strategic jobs and resources resulting in mass poverty, vulnerability, powerlessness and voicelessness in the political, economic and social arena. Lack of opposition in Uganda, collaboration with Rwanda and possibly Kenya will pave the way for realizing the Tutsi Empire dream in the Great Lakes region disguised as East African political federation with Museveni as the first head;

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All Ugandans will live happily ever after

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) engaged in a destructive guerrilla war (1981-85) with the overall objective of ending the long suffering of all Ugandans. This message runs through the articles compiled in “Mission to Freedom: Uganda Resistance News 1981 – 1985”. It is also the main theme in the ten-point program. Ending suffering by NRM would guarantee living happily ever after.

This goal was to be realized largely through forging national unity and good neighborly relations as well as ending corruption and sectarianism, promoting equitable and sustainable economic growth and social services using a mixed economy model.

The outcomes would have included stimulation of effective domestic demand for goods and services which in turn would have stimulated investment, employment and higher incomes and further stimulated effective demand (or raising individual purchasing power) so that everyone has the means to meet the basic needs and end the suffering that Ugandans have experienced for so long.

The goal and means of ending the long suffering of Ugandans contained in the ten point program was abandoned in 1987 and replaced with structural adjustment program (SAP) that focused on the invisible hand of the market forces, laissez faire capitalism and trickledown economics.

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Lack of justice has condemned Uganda to a state of fear and conflict

Ugandans are justifiably engaged in debates, conferences and diplomatic outreach activities in search of a permanent solution to the daunting political economy challenges. They are calling for unity and removal of NRM from power as the first step towards realizing justice for all.

Justice simply means fairness and equal opportunity for all. And justice goes with liberty, democracy, dignity and happiness. Uganda’s challenges at home and within the East African context originate principally from the absence of justice that has bred fear of domination and exploitation. Justice has not been served since different communities were pooled together in what became Uganda.

Policies adopted to conquer, administer and exploit Uganda’s resources introduced an unjust system. Individuals, groups or regions were rewarded or punished for various reasons; the indirect rule system created rulers and ruled. A system of economic growth centers and cheap labor reserves and discrimination in recruiting soldiers created regional imbalances. The desire to create tribal units for administrative convenience lumped people together in an unequal relationship.

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Uganda’s democracy won’t be won at gun point

The year 2011 will go down as a defining moment in Uganda’s political economy history. Those who have followed political debates since before independence in 1962 will agree that this year has been exceptional in this regard. The services provided particularly by radio munansi and Ugandans at Heart Forum that have facilitated exchange of information and debate are highly commendable. They facilitated the birth of United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) – an umbrella organization that has brought together parties and organizations opposed to the NRM system to coordinate their activities and speak with one voice.

Uganda has entered the age of Enlightenment based on the concept of reason, not swallowing orders from the military dictator lock, stock and barrel. The debates on oil and Mabira forest are some examples of this Age of Enlightenment. And there is no turning back.

The people of Uganda are thus demanding to start from a clean slate. They want to develop their future path and occupy the driver’s seat with external helping hand as appropriate. The preparation of the National Recovery Plan (NRP) by Ugandans is a concrete example of what we mean.

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Ugandans are not cursed by nature, we are impoverished by policies

Many Ugandans falsely believe that they were destined to fail, however hard they worked, because they were cursed at birth or even earlier – at conception. They have given up trying and resorted to destructive practices.

When I returned from exile in 1980, many families in my home village had given up hope. They had cleared all wetlands – began under Amin’s economic war – which provided thatch materials. Accordingly, they were living in houses with leaking roofs. They had also cut down all the trees to sell charcoal and had no firewood to cook beans that provide a rich source of vegetable protein.

One of the reasons my family decided to invest in Rukungiri – my home district – was largely to change this mood of despair by creating jobs. The employees soon realized that their being poor was not a curse after all but lack of opportunities and absence of a caring leadership. With their savings they started small scale projects and are doing pretty well.

Precolonial reports demonstrate that Ugandans enjoyed a comfortable livelihood except during temporary periods of famine and conflict. They produced according to their natural endowments and sold surplus in local and regional markets to obtain what they did not produce.

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Uganda needs a new development path for security and prosperity

Ugandans need to take stock of what has gone wrong in the economic area since NRM came to power in 1986 and to decide what development path they need to take since the Washington Consensus (WC) which the NRM government adopted lock, stock and barrel in 1987 has failed to deliver as expected and was abandoned in 2009. No credible alternative model has been developed by NRM regime.

To craft an appropriate alternative to WC we need to understand its major characteristics. Washington Consensus replaced Uganda’s mixed economy model with laissez-faire capitalism and the invisible hand of market forces that served as the engine of economic growth. The role of the state in the economy was reduced significantly.

Trade and financial liberalization, privatization of public enterprises, export diversification, macroeconomic stability and balanced budgets formed the new development paradigm. The equitable distribution of economic growth benefits was to be effected through a trickle down mechanism. The state was primarily concerned with maintenance of law and order, enforcement of contracts and protection of property rights. Uganda pursued economic activities in which it has the so-called comparative advantage namely production and export of agricultural raw materials. By 2009 it was concluded that the model had not worked as expected as shown below:

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Post-NRM government will give greater weight to social protection

Sooner or later the NRM government will fall under the heavy weight of its incompetence, corruption, sectarianism and marginalization of capable citizens. NRM has no capacity for adjustment to the unfolding challenges.

NRM started off well with a mixed economy model combining aspects of neo-liberalism (laissez-faire capitalism) and neo-Keynesianism (demand management). This was a popular and pragmatic program that had been crafted by many Uganda stakeholders with different perspectives and ideologies.

Then in mid-1987 – suddenly and without public warning – came the Washington Consensus (WC) or structural adjustment program (SAP) that was imposed by the Bank and the Fund on a bankrupt government. WC stressed small state, private ownership of public enterprises, deregulation and liberalization, export diversification, balanced budget and primacy of the invisible hand of market forces – all to be implemented simultaneously. Sequencing was ruled out and NRM absorbed WC lock, stock and barrel. It was hoped that market forces would distribute equitably the benefits of rapid economic growth – itself a function of foreign direct investments – to all classes and regions and everyone would live happily thereafter.

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