What we have learned about Obote and Museveni leadership

It is now recognized that the quality of a leader and development perspective can make or break a nation. This matter came up in one of the discussions at the United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) conference in Boston in October 2011. Requests were made for a study of the background and leadership qualities of Obote and Museveni and draw lessons that might help in selecting future leaders.

Obote was born in Lango. Museveni’s birthplace has remained unclear, raising many questions. Obote and Museveni have a common ancestry of Nilotic and Luo-speaking people (sometimes referred to as River and Lake people) who entered what later became Uganda from Bahr -el-Ghazal in South Sudan, not from Ethiopia as originally suggested. Obote was a member of the Oyima group; Museveni is of the Batutsi/Bahororo group. Ipso facto, Obote and Museveni are distant cousins.

Museveni and Obote have played high politics in Uganda rising to the level of head of state and government and commander in-chief of Uganda’s armed forces.

NRM has nowhere else to go but negotiate reforms

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) thought that it had created a favorable permanent situation and developed immunity against challenge after 1987 when it signed a stabilization and structural adjustment program (SAP) with the IMF, started to enjoy rapid economic growth (in large part because of excess capacity inherited in 1986 now almost exhausted) and established macroeconomic stability by keeping inflation in single digits through raising interest rates, balanced the budget by removing subsidies and dismissing public servants, accumulated foreign currency reserves in the central bank to guarantee continued imports for the rich and received massive external support.

NRM speeches were full of confidence and vibrancy stressing that market forces, laissez faire and trickledown would solve all problems. All NRM needed to do was to make sure that opposition was not allowed to say anything negative. The military, police, intelligence and prisons were expanded to deal with dissent. Lack of demonstrations was interpreted by the outside world as a sign of stability. Invitations to make speeches about Uganda’s success story at UN and G8 summits blinded NRM government to creeping signs of exhaustion and possible failure. Museveni even declared that there was no problem he could not solve.

In Uganda minority has dominated majority through the barrel of the gun

Ugandans and development partners searching for a lasting solution to endemic problems in Uganda need to revisit the country’s history for some clues. Under normal circumstances it is the majority that dominates the minority. In Uganda it is the reverse. And that is why democracy and elections which express the will of the majority have not worked because the privileged minority has sabotaged the democratic process.

In pre-colonial times the movement and interaction of people – the so-called agriculturalists and pastoralists – produced two communities. The agriculturalists known as Bantu people entered Uganda from the west. Their economic activities were dominated by crops and livestock (goats, sheep and short horn cattle) and poultry and manufactured products using abundant resources including iron ore and timber. Because they settled in large areas with fertile land, good weather and plenty of wild game and fruits and vegetables they multiplied quickly. Because there was plenty of everything including foodstuffs that increased resistance against diseases, there was no cause for conflict and wars. Absence of war minimized mortality and also contributed to rapid population growth. When conflicts arose, some communities simply moved away or the disputes were solved by diplomatic means through negotiations. Accordingly Bantu people did not have standing armies for offensive or defensive purposes.

2011 was a troubling year for Uganda

Twenty eleven was a year in which, inter alia:

1. “The Pearl of Africa” fell and faded again at home and abroad;

2. The costs of elections exceeded benefits;

3. Graduates from Dar es Salaam eclipsed those from other universities in strategic areas;

4. Corruption became so rampant that cabinet ministers and senior officials pointed a figure at the source;

5. NRM government demonstrated insensitivity and non-caring for Ugandans in the midst of unprecedented high prices, youth unemployment, poverty and collapse of institutions that made Ugandans proud like Mulago national referral and teaching hospital;

6. NRM dangerously drove the East African economic integration and political federation bus with a potential for permanently changing the demographic map of Uganda;

7. The economy of Uganda became unhinged reflecting NRM’s failure to adjust to a shift from pure neo-liberalism to public-private partnership;

8. Bahororo ruling clique in the NRM tightened its hold on power and is preparing the young generation to take over and continue to implement the 50 year master plan to be realized by denying other Ugandans access to good education, good and strategic jobs and resources resulting in mass poverty, vulnerability, powerlessness and voicelessness in the political, economic and social arena. Lack of opposition in Uganda, collaboration with Rwanda and possibly Kenya will pave the way for realizing the Tutsi Empire dream in the Great Lakes region disguised as East African political federation with Museveni as the first head;

Lack of justice has condemned Uganda to a state of fear and conflict

Ugandans are justifiably engaged in debates, conferences and diplomatic outreach activities in search of a permanent solution to the daunting political economy challenges. They are calling for unity and removal of NRM from power as the first step towards realizing justice for all.

Justice simply means fairness and equal opportunity for all. And justice goes with liberty, democracy, dignity and happiness. Uganda’s challenges at home and within the East African context originate principally from the absence of justice that has bred fear of domination and exploitation. Justice has not been served since different communities were pooled together in what became Uganda.

Policies adopted to conquer, administer and exploit Uganda’s resources introduced an unjust system. Individuals, groups or regions were rewarded or punished for various reasons; the indirect rule system created rulers and ruled. A system of economic growth centers and cheap labor reserves and discrimination in recruiting soldiers created regional imbalances. The desire to create tribal units for administrative convenience lumped people together in an unequal relationship.

Corruption has stunted Uganda’s economy and society

A child who does not eat enough in quantity and quality does not grow at a normal rate including acquisition of immunity against diseases and will likely die prematurely or will be disabled in many ways.

A woman who does not eat enough will likely produce an underweight child with permanent physical and mental disabilities including brain underdevelopment which occurs in the first three years of human life from conception and will likely die at a young age or fail to learn.

Similarly an economy and society that does not get enough investments in economic and social infrastructure and institutions does not grow at a high and sustained rate and people suffer from poverty, illiteracy and disease leading to low productivity and premature death.

In Uganda since NRM came to power in 1986, investments in infrastructure and institutions such as roads, energy, agriculture, education, healthcare, housing, research and extension services have been very inadequate. Endemic corruption has been a major factor siphoning off funds and stunting economic and social development. Thus, corruption has been a silent disabler and killer. Corruption has reached an emergency level that it needs to be addressed without further delay.

“We need to guard against ethnic polarization” – Nuwagaba

Vincent Nuwagaba has written a useful article on the above subject. It is an article written in simple language, yet substantive – by someone with sufficient knowledge and experience in Uganda’s political economy. The timing of its publication could not have been better – coming so soon after the London conference.

It is true that some westerners have criticized Museveni regime constantly. And I am one of them. The idea really is not to make him uncomfortable but to draw mistakes of his government to his attention so that corrective actions are taken. I believe that is how he has received our messages.

I was forced to write an article about how Bairu of Rukungiri district got impoverished to demonstrate that western Uganda has some of the poorest people in Uganda. Some are committing suicide because they cannot raise tax money. Many are selling land to make ends meet and have ended up landless.

Subsequently a journalist from Canada visited Rukungiri district and wrote an article that was more disturbing in the depth of poverty, dispossession and marginalization than I had written. Yet many Ugandans continue to believe that all westerners are filthy rich. This is entirely wrong.

Uganda needs a new development path for security and prosperity

Ugandans need to take stock of what has gone wrong in the economic area since NRM came to power in 1986 and to decide what development path they need to take since the Washington Consensus (WC) which the NRM government adopted lock, stock and barrel in 1987 has failed to deliver as expected and was abandoned in 2009. No credible alternative model has been developed by NRM regime.

To craft an appropriate alternative to WC we need to understand its major characteristics. Washington Consensus replaced Uganda’s mixed economy model with laissez-faire capitalism and the invisible hand of market forces that served as the engine of economic growth. The role of the state in the economy was reduced significantly.

Trade and financial liberalization, privatization of public enterprises, export diversification, macroeconomic stability and balanced budgets formed the new development paradigm. The equitable distribution of economic growth benefits was to be effected through a trickle down mechanism. The state was primarily concerned with maintenance of law and order, enforcement of contracts and protection of property rights. Uganda pursued economic activities in which it has the so-called comparative advantage namely production and export of agricultural raw materials. By 2009 it was concluded that the model had not worked as expected as shown below:

Uganda has failed because of lack of tested leaders

Uganda has everything except good, dedicated, tested and patriotic leaders. When someone suddenly jumps out of a ‘corn field’ onto a political stage and then quickly becomes head of state chances are that that country will experience tremendous difficulties.

Look at Uganda since independence in 1962. Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Kabaka-Yekka (KY) political parties were formed virtually on the eve of independence, allowing no time to test the leaders. The UPC/KY alliance was a marriage of convenience – not of conviction to unite and lead Uganda to greatness. The alliance was hurriedly put together for the sole purpose of preventing Democratic Party (DP) from forming a government at independence. In this rush thorny issues like the head of state and ‘lost counties’ which could have prevented formation of a UPC/KY alliance were not resolved before independence. The rush gave us a complex constitution with serious repercussions. What happened after independence did not surprise those who followed the negotiations in London or who knew the ideological differences between UPC and KY leaders. We ended up with 1966 catastrophe, a pigeon-hole constitution and Amin in 1971.

Is it a crime for Uganda citizens to request background information of their leaders?

     
       
           

Things that citizens of other countries take for granted such as the right to know the background including birth place of their leaders have become taboo in Uganda. Uganda sits at the center of Africa and has acted as a magnet attracting many people particularly from the Horn and Great Lakes regions of Africa. Because of colonial history whose impact is still felt, Uganda has in its midst people from other countries and continents. Demanding to know who they are, how they got into the country, what they are doing and what future plans they have is a normal thing without sectarian content. Simple questions have been turned into a political matter with potential for instability. Refusing to answer these questions will only lead to more suspicions.

People have come into Uganda for different reasons. The Nubians entered what later became Uganda in search of temporary shelter when they were cut off during a rebellion in Sudan in the 19th century. They stayed and were later hired by Frederick Lugard to break colonial resistance with brutal force.