The tradition of religious sermons in Uganda involved a prayer wishing the president and his government wisdom to govern justly, peacefully and lift everyone out of poverty and vulnerability. These messages were particularly forceful during the Christmas and New Year celebrations.
Of late, however, this tradition has changed as human condition has degenerated to sub-human level witness human sacrifice and trafficking and biting poverty in a country that is overwhelmingly religious and potentially rich where citizens are taught to care for one another, respect and protect human life.
Initially religious leaders expressed their discomfort with failing NRM policies indirectly, hoping that the government would take a hint and make appropriate changes. However, as time passed, the situation got worse – liberty, justice and dignity came under attack by government policies and military action. Those who demanded improvements in their rights and freedoms including the right to work and freedom to walk to work through peaceful demonstrations were attacked by the government using disproportionate force which resulted in deaths, wounded and detained innocent people some of them charged with treason punishable by death.
Thus the indirect and/or private approach by religious leaders did not work. So did that of our development partners that conduct business mostly behind closed doors. The strategy has therefore changed in both camps and open criticism has become the norm.
The sermons on Christmas day from around the country convey this changed approach clearly. Religious leaders spoke openly about injustice, corruption, abuse of human rights and dispossession of assets such as land and impoverishment of the majority of Ugandans. The country has been plunged into darkness with future prospects very bleak.
They summed up their messages with a call for courage, unity and change of leadership for better times ahead. This challenge was addressed to political parties and organizations opposed to the NRM system at home and abroad.
From time immemorial religious leaders have championed political change by direct participation or creating conditions for citizens to organize and bring about the necessary changes. Uganda religious leaders have given Ugandans in the opposition a golden opportunity to unite genuinely and change the regime by non-violent means in the first instance. Because the ballot box has not worked other means have to be devised.
Development partners have also given Ugandans a window of opportunity to organize and remove the oppressive regime led by Museveni, witness recent press releases and reduction of donor funding or redirection of fund recipients. The donor community has sent a clear message which we should utilize to the fullest extent possible.
Comments from Uganda citizens, researchers, human rights organizations and other public and private entities have underscored the urgent need for regime change.
NRM has reached a point of no return or recovery. It cannot be repaired. It can only be replaced because it is running the country on one engine instead of four and has been crippled by endemic corruption which has reached an impossible level to end from within.
At the start NRM had four fully charged engines.
1. Rapid economic growth which reached over 10 percent in the mid-1990s and has since slid to under five percent. Low inflation that ensured macroeconomic stability and attracted some investments albeit below expectations has now risen to a level making it difficult to invest and to afford basic goods and services. And rampant corruption has become NRM’s Achilles heel.
2. Full donor support as a result of structural adjustment which was being tested as a model for development in developing countries. Initially Uganda did well and was graded variously as a star pupil, success story and darling of the west. Money and expertise poured in at times more than was requested. The failure of the experiment which was officially terminated in 2009 reduced considerably donors’ support. Uganda’s poor performance as dean of a new breed of African leaders and leader of the Great Lakes region marked by plunder of DRC resources and the associated instability as well as allegations that Uganda troops participated in the genocide of Hutu people in DRC have undermined Uganda’s image in the region and beyond.
3. The third engine that NRM has lost is popular support. The introduction of the ten-point program which was well drafted endeared NRM to the people of Uganda. Its abandonment in favor of structural adjustment with severe adverse impact on Ugandans combined with stealing elections has lost NRM a lot of support. The religious leaders that NRM has banked on for support are now distancing themselves. In free and fair elections NRM has no chance of retaining power. The involvement of illegal foreign voters and massive disenfranchisement of Uganda voters in 2011 elections is a testimony to the reality that NRM has lost popularity.
4. The only engine remaining is the military. If we go by past experience, no government can depend on the military alone for survival even when mercenaries are brought it. The Shah of Iran, the emperor of Ethiopia and the leader of Rumania had formidable military and security apparatus. But they did not save them. Once troops realize that the government has lost support of the people, development partners and religious leaders and their conditions are deteriorating, they abandon their governments. Uganda is unlikely to be an exception.
Therefore 2012 should be a watershed year for Uganda. The atmosphere favors opposition parties and groups. To fully avail themselves of this opportunity they need to unite under one umbrella organization. Opposition parties in Kenya were only able to defeat KANU only after they formed NARC. Opposition parties in Zambia were only able to defeat UNIP after they united under MMD. Liberation movements in Southern Rhodesia were able to end UDI when they formed a Patriotic Front. Uganda opposition parties and groups at home and abroad cannot unseat NRM differently. You will be surprised how many NRM supporters will join once they see a viable alternative.
Therefore the sooner the opposition parties and organizations at home and abroad realize this reality and unite genuinely the better. And 2012 should be the year when this reality should be absorbed and put into full practice.
The people of Uganda are yearning for bold, visionary and people-oriented leadership. The donor community would like to see Uganda opposition parties and organizations united under one umbrella organization articulating common messages and speaking through one voice.
Our religious leaders have opened a window of opportunity, let us strike the iron when it is still hot and liberate our people sooner than later.
The overall guiding ideology or common intentions should be inclusiveness, full participation, peaceful resolution of political conflicts in the first instance, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms and a governance system that respects traditions and endowments in a mutually reinforcing manner as well as public and private partnership.