Uganda is sacrificing its development – for the third time – as government directs its attention to hosting the United Nations peace keeping force of 50,000 military and police contingents, and 11,000 civilian staff budgeted at $5 billion (about 11 trillion shillings) a year. Ugandans who don’t know the challenges and implications of a project of this magnitude may dance in jubilation, hoping jobs will be created for Ugandans making poverty history. First of all the peace keepers will be internationally recruited with few jobs if any going to Ugandans with connections. Secondly, besides being the best political donation for Museveni and his NRM party a few months before presidential and parliamentary elections which is bad news for opposition parties, Uganda will also experience unprecedented shortages and high prices.
Uganda’s development has been delayed twice already because of ideological wars – the cold war between the capitalist west and the communist east which began in 1945 and ended in 1990; and the economic war between market forces and state intervention or socialism which began in the 1980s and is still with us although it was officially abandoned in Uganda in 2009. Uganda did very well economically and socially, especially in the 1960s before the impact of the cold war became evident. Donor funds and Uganda taxes were put to good use with tangible results. Quality education and health care were realized, infrastructure such as roads were paved, agricultural production facilitated by cooperatives increased, food security improved and more money was put into the pockets of farmers and those who provided services to the agriculture sector.
The cold war drew in the communist countries of the “red belt” and capitalist countries of the “blue belt” with Uganda at the intersection of the two belts. Uganda’s move to the left and the nationalization of foreign enterprises in the late 1960s put the country into the communist camp which was unacceptable to the capitalist west. In January 1971, the government was overthrown and a more ‘reliable’ leader and government were installed. The development of Uganda suffered a reversal as Amin and his soldiers hunted down especially educated Ugandans and foreigners they did not like. By 1979 when the government was removed by military force, Uganda’s economy and welfare of her people had sunk to a very low level.
As the country was getting on its feet, another ideological war broke out between market forces and state intervention in the form of stabilization and structural adjustment. The government signed an agreement with IMF in 1981. Because of stiff conditionality, the government had a narrow fiscal space to cater for the interests of the public which became agitated. At the same time the west still considered Obote and UPC to be socialist in orientation and therefore not trustworthy. Guerrilla activities which were launched in 1981 with western backing destabilized the country further. The government eventually fell in July 1985. Within six months Museveni and the NRM came to power in January 1986.
Within one year Museveni converted to a shock therapy (extreme) form of structural adjustment which crippled support for social and infrastructural sectors of education, healthcare, housing, roads and energy. Government focused on controlling inflation, balancing the budget and diversifying export base to generate sufficient foreign currency and repay external debt. Poverty remained high or increased because poverty reduction was placed on the back burner. Its adverse effects are manifested in persistent high levels of unemployment, malnutrition and insanity, domestic violence, abject health care as manifested by jiggers (a national scandal!), dilapidated roads, environmental degradation that has led to frequent droughts and floods and associated famines reducing Uganda from food self-sufficiency to food donations. Uganda had very little progress to report at the MDGs Summit in September 2010 forcing the president to skip this main event of the 65th session of the UN General Assembly.
Museveni has decided to host peace keeping operations principally for his political survival. This project is likely to prolong his stay as the international community may want him in power to create the necessary conditions for the peace keeping mission. If this happens, Uganda’s interests will be submerged under regional security considerations for a long time.
Ugandans should expect many challenges as peace keeping personnel arrive in large numbers. The demand for housing, food, energy, etc will increase and push prices beyond the reach of most Ugandans (For example breakfast alone at a medium hotel in Kinshasa where peace keepers stay cost $35 per person). Increased food sale by farmers to make money will lead to increased malnutrition, beginning with women and children. The prospect of finding formal and informal jobs in the Kampala-Entebbe area is going to attract Ugandans from all parts of the country as well as illegal immigrants. The Kampala-Entebbe corridor which is already congested with traffic jam will become a nightmare. Slums, crimes, sex workers, unsanitary conditions and contagious diseases will spread and social and cultural values plummet to unprecedented levels. US dollars earned by peace keepers may replace local currency. Those without dollars will suffer as sellers prefer dollars over Uganda shillings.
These new and abrupt developments will change the security dynamics and force the government to devote more resources (money, time and personnel) to expand military, police and intelligence services, leaving insufficient resources for agriculture, infrastructure, education, healthcare, housing, etc which benefit ordinary citizens directly. Thus human development and environmental protection will once again – for the third time – have to wait.