In its report on Uganda dated January 2009, the African Peer Review Forum included a section on population growth (pages 283 through 285). The report noted that “Historically, high fertility rates strongly correlate with poverty and high child mortality rates…). The report further noted that “Recovering from civil war and an HIV prevalence rate that peaked at 30 percent in the 1990s, Uganda now has the third highest population growth rate in the world, estimated at 3.2 percent… The high population growth rate is driven by the country’s high average total fertility rate of 6.9 children, one of the highest in the world”. The report did not mention the influence of migration on Uganda’s population growth. Uganda has a very liberal policy on migration and refugees. This dimension must be factored into Uganda’s demographic equation. The report also did not mention that fertility has begun to decline albeit slowly.
The report covered some causes of the high fertility rate. They include socio-cultural factors like early marriage, low educational levels, especially among females, pervasive poverty, low contraceptive use, general low socio-economic status of women and political statements that encourage large families in part because Uganda has low population density with negative political economy consequences.
The recommendations for bringing down population growth include an increase in contraception to cover unmet needs, economic growth with equity, universal access to education,jobs, health care and development opportunities (sustainable human development) drawing on best practices around the world. The Forum suggested the formulation and implementation of a National Population Policy guided by: (1) education for and empowerment of women; (2) promotion of scientific and technical development; (3) promotion of new modes of production (modernization and commercialization of agriculture); (4) promotion of ‘growth with equity’ and sustainable human development.
A few remarks on Uganda’s population dynamics are in order at this juncture. First, the education and empowerment of women is very crucial in attaining optimal population growth rate. It must begin with the education of girls. The Uganda government and development partners must make a genuine effort to achieve this goal. Special arrangements need to be made to improve attendance and performance of girls. The enrolment rate needs to improve but more importantly the drop-out rate needs to be reduced significantly and performance improved. It has been demonstrated in developed and developing countries that school lunches reduce drop-out and improve performance of girls. By staying in school longer, girls marry late and reduce fertility – making family planning least controversial. Educated women get good jobs and incomes and become empowered including in determining their reproductive behavior in terms of the number of children they want and how to space them without pressure from their spouses. The Uganda government is aware of the benefit of school lunches but has reneged on their implementation.
Second, agriculture which has been recognized as the principal pillar of Uganda’s economic growth and development has not received commensurate government budget support. With some 90 percent of Uganda’s population (depending on how an urban area is defined) dependent on agriculture, it makes sense to focus on agrarian reforms with full support to small holder farmers. There is global agreement that small holder farmers are productive, efficient, environmentally-friendly and least socially disruptive compared to large-scale farmers. Since Uganda’s economy is built on small holder farmers, what is needed is to support them so that they increase productivity per unit of land. They will need smart subsidies, marketing, storage including cold storage and agro-processing facilities to add value and reduce losses especially of perishable produce. These arrangements will increase incomes, jobs and reduce poverty which is one of the conditions behind Uganda’s rapid population growth. Support to small holder farmers will also put an end to political sensitivities surrounding dishing out Uganda’s land to foreigners which the British colonial administration wisely avoided.
Third, Uganda authorities and development partners need to make a concerted effort to promote growth with equity. Uganda’s thirty years experience with structural adjustment program which focused on growth hoping trickle-down mechanism would distribute equitably the benefits of growth has demonstrated it did not work. James Gustave Speth, former Administrator of UNDP, remarked in 1998 that “Uganda is a leading example of an African country that is doing many of the right economic things to lift its people out of poverty. It has posted growth rates averaging over 6 percent a year for a decade. Yet two-thirds of the population remain in absolute poverty, and per capita income is only now approaching the level attained in 1970 [when Obote I government was overthrown]” (Development Cooperation Seminar 1999). Therefore the time has come to combine growth with equity.
Fourth, for population planning purposes, the government must disaggregate date showing the contribution of population growth due to migration (in-migration over out-migration and the children migrants produce while in Uganda) and to natural growth (excess of births over deaths), areas where population growth is high, moderate or low. Every effort should be made to avoid a one-size-fits-all approach. Population planning must also take into consideration short, medium and longer term outcomes to avoid population dynamics similar to what is happening in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, India and Mauritius. Given that Uganda is slowly crawling out of the HIV & AIDS pandemic and human destructive civil wars in the Luwero Triangle and northern and eastern Uganda population growth is expected as survivors replace their lost relatives.
Fifth, local communities especially opinion leaders must be included in matters related to population, it being one of the most delicate topics in Uganda’s economic, social, cultural, religious and political set up.
Sixth, family planning programs must be demand and not supply driven in line with the Cairo International Conference on Population and Development (ICDP) of 1994. In a new family planning ethos, Judith Bruce and Anrudh Jain of the Population Council observed that “…it must now be considered irresponsible to manage and measure family planning programs by the use of targets or quotas for specific methods. For such criteria threaten the very ethos of client-oriented, high quality family planning services. Instead, the success and efficiency of family planning services should be evaluated by how well they enable people to meet their reproductive goals in a [safe and] healthy way… Finally, family planning programs must begin to play a part in supporting voluntary and equal sexual partnerships”(The Progress of Nations 1995).
Uganda has been advised and has talked a lot about population growth. The time has come to develop and implement an appropriate policy according to specific location needs.