Tag Archives: will

Uganda: when you’re afraid of failure you will never make progress

Many Ugandans are very unhappy about the deteriorating situation in our country. However, they are unable to react because they are afraid that if they don’t succeed in regime change or make fundamental changes within NRM the consequences might be severe. They are therefore prepared to wait until time solves the problem or someone else does it for them. That is why some Ugandans are praying virtually daily for donors to come to our rescue. In life there are few, if any, improvements that occur without human involvement and sometimes sacrifices. Intervention by others is more often than not to promote or fulfill parochial agendas that could lead to more hardship for the non-participants in the process. Therefore in order to solve a problem those affected need to participate. Second, success or failure depends upon the goal one sets. For example, those who had planned to unseat NRM regime in 2011 elections and didn’t obviously failed. Those who criticized NRM economic policy succeeded because the government dropped the devastating structural adjustment program in 2009 based on the invisible hand of market forces and replaced it with National Development Plan designed to introduce a public-private partnership model. Third, there are goals that are achieved in stages. You start with producing and disseminating information in the news papers, radios and the internet as Ugandans are doing now. The information is then debated and synthesized into policy and strategy in the second phase. In the third phase the strategy is implemented. Implementation may not achieve all the goals or none at all. The momentum may be slowed or the movement even destroyed completely. History provides lessons we can draw from so that when we do not succeed or do so partially the first time we should not despair and throw in the towel. In some of my publications, I have deliberately drawn on history lessons to show that those that persist and are optimistic win in the end. Below are some lessons that discourage pessimism and defeatism.

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When people demand change, they can’t be stopped

I have followed and participated in Uganda politics since before independence. Those at Butobere, Ntare, Rukungiri, Nairobi, Berkeley (USA), Arusha, Brussels (Belgium), Addis Ababa, Lusaka and Mbabane (Swaziland) where I was born, studied or worked and now New York where I reside will recall the political discussions we had and are now having about the desire for Ugandans and Africans to take charge of their own destiny. The lesson I have learned is that when people are determined for change, they will get it regardless of the hurdles on the way. We used to hear that Africans were not ready for independence. They needed more time and guidance. They were like children beginning to walk or to ride a bicycle. Some even argued that people in Southern Africa would never be liberated in our lifetime. Ready or not, the people of Uganda and Africa pushed on and got independent.

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Organize and unite, start and we shall help you liberate Uganda

There are Ugandans who still harbor the notion that a foreign power (s) will dispatch troops to Uganda, remove Museveni and his government and install a new one. And they are complaining bitterly why the suffering of Ugandans has been ignored. It is unclear where they got this idea of foreign invasion from or that the suffering of the people of Uganda is ignored. What is clear is that foreign powers, organizations and individuals have not closed their eyes and ears to the suffering of Ugandans. They are seeing, they are consulting, they are hearing, they are acting privately and publicly. We have read press releases expressing concern about violation of human rights and freedoms in Uganda. We have also seen missions dispatched to Uganda for direct talks with the government. Museveni and NRM image has shifted from a darling of the west to a dictatorial regime uncaring about the welfare of Ugandans. That is a powerful message. Museveni is scared. Some world leaders have spoken eloquently about their opposition to dictatorial regimes that have overstayed in power. They have been warned that they are on the wrong side of history. And you know who these leaders are. The dictatorial regimes they are talking about include Uganda. So let us be very careful how we express our feelings. That is why it is important ideally to have one spokesperson with a command of the appropriate diplomatic language to use to convey messages without ruffling feathers.

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Uganda’s democracy won’t be won at gun point

The year 2011 will go down as a defining moment in Uganda’s political economy history. Those who have followed political debates since before independence in 1962 will agree that this year has been exceptional in this regard. The services provided particularly by radio munansi and Ugandans at Heart Forum that have facilitated exchange of information and debate are highly commendable. They facilitated the birth of United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) – an umbrella organization that has brought together parties and organizations opposed to the NRM system to coordinate their activities and speak with one voice.

Uganda has entered the age of Enlightenment based on the concept of reason, not swallowing orders from the military dictator lock, stock and barrel. The debates on oil and Mabira forest are some examples of this Age of Enlightenment. And there is no turning back.

The people of Uganda are thus demanding to start from a clean slate. They want to develop their future path and occupy the driver’s seat with external helping hand as appropriate. The preparation of the National Recovery Plan (NRP) by Ugandans is a concrete example of what we mean.

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Message for NRM legislators (MPs) on East African cooperation

I have learned that one of the principal purposes of the just concluded Kyankwanzi week long seminar for NRM legislators was to discuss acceleration of the East African economic integration and political federation. I have written extensively on this subject and posted articles on Ugandans at Heart Forum and on www.kashambuzi.com. Therefore the message to NRM legislators will be brief.

As a majority party in parliament you have a special responsibility to promote, defend and protect the interests of Ugandans in whatever you do. Any negotiation must bring net gains to Uganda. The history of the East African cooperation appears to have yielded fewer benefits but more losses to Uganda. This must be avoided in the current and future negotiations. To prepare yourselves well you may need to look at what has happened or is happening in other parts of the world engaged in a similar exercise.

Regarding political federation MPs are urged to study why the following failures have occurred:

1. The Central African federation of Northern and Southern Rhodesia and Nyasaland;

2. The Yugoslavia federation;

3. The czechoslovakia federation

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In Uganda religious leaders can make a difference

Our doctrine is that Ugandans will liberate themselves from Museveni’s military dictatorship and the NRM failed system via a wide range of instruments including mass media and collaboration with religious leaders. The international community is called upon to level the playing field as Ugandans embark on a journey to freedom through peaceful demonstrations which are an integral part of our human rights including the right to self-determination and crafting a governance system that accommodates specific interests. That the European Union and Commonwealth observer teams concluded that the February 18, 2011 presidential and parliamentary elections were ‘not free and fair’ is a commendable beginning.

From time immemorial religious leaders have played a vital role (and some of them paid a heavy price) in easing the suffering of people meted out by their leaders. For example, John Ball a follower of John Wycliffe contributed tremendously through speeches and writing (e.g. “All men by Nature Were Created Alike”) in support of English peasants that had suffered exploitation. The peasants revolted in 1381 resulted in the abolition of the poll tax imposed in 1380 which sparked the great revolt.

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Museveni’s cabinet will retain familiar, tired ministers

Although Uganda has been applauded for electing young men and women as parliamentarians, do not be surprised if Museveni retains old, tired ministers including those who contested and lost or who did not even try. He will also probably bring back former ministers who had been dismissed for corruption.

Museveni’s selection of ministers has been largely influenced by loyalty rather than competence so that he can make them do what he wants. In cases where he included educated people in his cabinet, he assigned them to ministries where they had no experience. For argument’s sake (for real examples do some home work) when you appoint a well trained and experienced medical doctor to be a minister of finance or a policeman to be a minister of education or health you make it difficult for them to discharge their duties with confidence. When you do not know what you are doing you are bound to keep your mouth shut to avoid making errors which could land you into trouble and lose your job. So keeping a job becomes more important than serving the people.

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Museveni’s cabinet will retain familiar, tired ministers

Although Uganda has been applauded for electing young men and women as parliamentarians, do not be surprised if Museveni retains old, tired ministers including those who contested and lost or who did not even try. He will also probably bring back former ministers who had been dismissed for corruption.

Museveni’s selection of ministers has been largely influenced by loyalty rather than competence so that he can make them do what he wants. In cases where he included educated people in his cabinet, he assigned them to ministries where they had no experience. For argument’s sake (for real examples do some home work) when you appoint a well trained and experienced medical doctor to be a minister of finance or a policeman to be a minister of education or health you make it difficult for them to discharge their duties with confidence. When you do not know what you are doing you are bound to keep your mouth shut to avoid making errors which could land you into trouble and lose your job. So keeping a job becomes more important than serving the people.

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How peaceful demonstrations will squeeze Museveni out of power

Some Ugandans and non-Ugandans who have doubts that peaceful demonstrations alone (which I support) will squeeze Museveni and NRM illegitimate government out of power have asked me to explain the mechanism through which it will happen. Let me state right away that I have opted for peaceful demonstrations because their potential for human loss, injuries and displacement as well as destruction of property is much lower than the military option.

Uganda is a small country with a vulnerable economy dependent on external forces through exports, donations and soft loans, foreign investors, foreign experts and advisers, tourism and remittances by Ugandans living abroad. All we need to do is to convince these forces including our neighbors and all members of the East African community to cooperate with the suffering Ugandans to change the regime through peaceful means.

Sustained demonstrations and civil disobedience will create economic disruptions and security response will generate instability. These developments will constrain production of goods and services, cause supply to fall below demand, raise prices and force more Ugandans including NRM supporters to join demonstrations in protest against rising prices especially of food thereby denting the popularity of Museveni’s illegitimate government. Deterioration in economic activity will reduce the tax base and government revenue forcing it to cut back the provision of services further reducing its popularity especially its illegitimate leader Museveni.

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An animal that will die does not hear the hunter’s horn

We have a proverb in western Uganda which says (crudely translated) that a wild animal that is to die does not hear the hunting horn when it is blown. It therefore stays in harm’s way until it is speared to death. The same can be said about Museveni. He does not appear to have realized that there is a wind of change blowing across Uganda. The wind which blew in his favor for the last 25 years has changed direction. How has this happened?

First, Museveni was picked in 1980 by some western powers for geopolitical purposes in the great lakes region. They helped him with finance, media and diplomatic cover as he removed old governments and installed new ones at a great cost in human life including the alleged genocide of Hutu in DRC, pillaging Congo’s resources and supporting militias. His role in Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and DRC is not in dispute. That assignment is over.

Second, Museveni was used to support SPLA in the civil war in Sudan. That assignment is now over.

Third, Museveni was used to experiment structural adjustment program as a development model after it ran into trouble in Chile and Ghana. The experiment failed miserably and was terminated in 2009.

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