Kale Kayihura can’t impose Museveni as president of Uganda

In 1993 Museveni declared that if the people who are the sovereign force don’t want their leader, then he/she should go. He added unambiguously that the role of the army is to guard borders and maintain internal peace. “The army should guard what the people want, not do what the people don’t want”. The police force also has responsibility to maintain law and order.

Following the massively rigged elections of February 2011 with some five million Ugandans disenfranchised and many foreigners brought in to vote, the people of Uganda have rejected the results of these rigged elections at the presidential, parliamentary and local levels. They want to exercise their right of peaceful assembly and freedom of speech to denounce the results and stop the formation of an illegitimate government. International instruments and Uganda’s constitution allow peaceful assembly and freedom of speech. Kayihura cannot violate these rights and freedoms with impunity.

By banning planned demonstrations under the pretext that they will be violent, Kale Kayihura is in effect imposing Museveni as president of Uganda. This imposition goes against Museveni’s own understanding of the will of the people as he articulated in 1993 namely that security forces should guard what the people want, not do what the people don’t want. The people of Uganda have rejected the February 18 elections so Museveni cannot be president without their consent. Millions of them were disenfranchised.

Uganda’s 2011 elections results are illegitimate

Greetings fellow Ugandans and friends

Let me begin with good news. The United Nations and the international community in general have increasingly shifted focus from support to governments and national sovereignty to people and their search for freedom, liberty, dignity and equality.

In 2005, the United Nations adopted a resolution on the Responsibility to Protect. It means that if a government is unwilling or unable to protect its people against crimes of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity, the international community has a responsibility to respond and restore order.

Thus, as we struggle to prevent Museveni from forming an illegitimate regime, we need to realize that the international community is on the side of Ugandans who have rejected the recently held elections. To facilitate our discussion this morning about the illegitimacy of elections, let us remind ourselves of the following points.

1. For elections results to be legitimate there must be a level playing field to allow a free and fair electoral cycle. While peace on polling day is necessary, it is not sufficient to render elections results legitimate as some people have argued.

Uganda is ripe for a Glorious Revolution

Revolutions occur when the people (ruled) or their representatives demand basic changes in their governance relationships with the rulers. Revolutions can be bloodless like the Glorious (peaceful) Revolution of 1688 in England or bloody like the French Revolution of 1789-1799. Revolutions reflect deep-seated and long-held grievances by the public against their leaders. Revolutions occur when these grievances reach a boiling point. Has Uganda reached that point?

Before examining conditions for a revolution in Uganda let us quickly review conditions and steps taken in England and France to effect fundamental changes – Revolutions – in the relations between the rulers and the ruled.

In England, conditions that led to the revolution of 1688 started with James I who had been king of Scotland. He became king of England in 1603 following the death of Queen Elizabeth I from the Tudor family. James was a member of the Stuart family. The Stuart kings (James I, Charles I, Charles II and James II) ruled England from 1603 to 1689. Parliament conflicted with Stuart kings, fought them and limited their powers for many reasons including the fact that James I had been king of Scotland and therefore a foreigner as king of England.

Let us make Uganda a country of laws, not dictators

When I was growing up, we had unwritten rules, regulations and procedures at family and community levels (I am not talking about the rulers and the ruled because that is a totally different story). Nobody was above them. They were designed to ensure justice and equality, maintain law and order and respect for private property. Everyone had dignity within that community. Individuals and groups had responsibilities. For example, among children, the older one was obliged to take care of the young ones. Preference was especially given to weak or sick members. We did not take advantage of them.

Stealing or possessing something that was not yours was strictly forbidden. For example, when you picked up some money or handkerchief you would take it to the priest who would announce lost and found items on Sunday. People who swindled others would not get away with it.

There were procedures for sharing information and resolving disputes to avoid rule of the jungle. The most important instrument was sharing information. If a neighbor found your child doing something inappropriate, parents would be notified to take corrective steps. If a child stayed with friends or relatives, parents or relatives would be notified. Disappearance of children was unheard of!

Kale Kayihura and peaceful demonstrations in Uganda

Uganda’s Inspector General of Police, Major General Kale Kayihura has issued two press releases and addressed the press in Kampala on peaceful demonstrations designed to reject the 2011 elections. He is reported to have warned that “The call for mass protests to challenge the results of the presidential elections is a declaration of war on the Government”. The warning has shifted from possible violent demonstrations to a declaration of war on the government. By declaring war means that the security forces are going to intervene either to prevent peaceful demonstrations from taking place or disperse them when they see fit. Let us share the following information with the Inspector General and the general public so that we fully understand our individual responsibility, accountability and liability.

First, the people of Uganda, like people elsewhere, have an inalienable (natural) political right of peaceful assembly and association. They also have the fundamental freedom of opinion and expression as well as the right to take part in the government of their choice, directly or through freely chosen representatives. These rights and freedoms are incorporated in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and political Rights to which Uganda is a signatory and legally-bound.

Ugandans must reclaim their freedom and dignity

Greetings fellow Ugandans and friends

Although born free and equal in dignity, Ugandans have lost both since colonial days. Independence did not restore our freedom and dignity. The pre-independence constitutional and election arrangements were skewed in favor of a few. Since 1966 Uganda has experienced political and economic crisis.

Economic and political troubles in neighboring countries particularly in Rwanda and Burundi resulted in economic and political refugees that have fundamentally affected Uganda’s demographic, economic and political landscape and further eroded the freedom and dignity of indigenous Ugandans. During Amin’s regime Uganda was ruled by foreigners causing extensive damage in human life, property, institutions and infrastructure because they did not care. When their time was up, they disappeared and left behind a depressing economic and political situation.

What is needed for a demonstration to succeed?

Greetings fellow Ugandans and friends

The following requirements must be met in whole or in part for a demonstration, revolt or revolution to succeed.

1. There must be deep-seated, long-held grievances that translate into sufficient frustration and anger for change.

2. The goal must be clearly defined. The Peasant Revolt of 1381 in England was against feudal exploitation and war costs. The mob in Paris in 1789 was a protest against poverty, unemployment and rising cost of living. The Peasants in the French Revolution were against feudal exploitation and injustices. The Cairo Revolution was about unseating Hosni Mubarak.

3. There must be a spark for spontaneous demonstrations. The 1973 famine in Ethiopia sparked Addis Ababa demonstrations, introduction of Afrikaans language in Black schools in South Africa sparked Soweto student uprising, enforcement of a poll tax in England in 1381 sparked peasant uprising in southeast England. These demonstrations and revolts were leaderless and spontaneous precluding application for police permits. This is what is likely to happen in Uganda when peaceful demonstrations occur against illegitimate presidential, parliamentary and local elections.

Is Uganda ready for change?

During and since our last broadcast on radio Munansi (February 20, 2011) many questions have been raised including whether Uganda is ready for change, where are the leaders, when should the change take place and, will Museveni and his security forces behave like Qaddafi in Libya? Let us look at history lessons for guidance.

Is Uganda ready for change? Yes it is. Historically, in countries where rebellions, revolts or revolutions take place, societies are characterized by extreme inequalities, high unemployment especially among the youth, high levels of poverty and high prices. For example, at the time of the French Revolution, France was characterized by high inequalities in wealth and privileges between the monarch, nobility and high clergy on one hand and commoners on the other. Also, poverty and unemployment levels were high and food prices were high. Uganda meets all these characteristics as discussed in previous debates.

Where are the leaders? Changes have taken place with or without leaders. History shows that some revolutions have had leaders that mobilized the discontented people through advocacy. The England’s peasants’ revolt of 1381 was prepared through agitation by priest John Ball and peasant Wat Tyler. After this revolt, no medieval English government attempted to impose a poll tax again. When Margaret Thatcher attempted to restore it she was forced out of office as prime minister.

Uganda’s transition from speeches to action

Greetings fellow Ugandans and friends

History repeats itself and in Uganda it is about to happen.

In the 1980 Uganda elections, Paul Ssemogerere and his DP were expected to win general elections. Yoweri Museveni warned the late Milton Obote and his UPC that if they rig and win, Museveni would wage a guerrilla war and remove the government from power.

Obote won and formed Obote II government in December 1980. True to his word Museveni waged a very destructive guerrilla war. In July 1985 Okello and a section of the national army removed Obote and his government from power. In January 1986, Museveni entered Kampala and formed NRM government.

While in the bush, Museveni also waged a vicious attack on Obote’s structural adjustment program for its contribution to poverty, unemployment, hunger, poor quality education and health care services.

While in power Museveni has repeated exactly what he accused Obote of. He has rigged elections against Paul Ssemogerere in 1996, Kiiza Besigye in 2001, 2006 and 2011. Museveni also launched a structural adjustment program which has aggravated poverty, unemployment, hunger, poor quality education and health care services and environmental degradation.

Museveni’s address to journalists on eve of 2011 elections

Reading his address to journalists one gets the impression that Museveni had in mind ignorant people who have no clue what has happened in Uganda over the last 25 years. How can he transform Uganda into a second world when he has driven it into a fourth world? Uganda was a third world country when he came to power in 1986. For all intents and purposes, Uganda is now a fourth world using the yardstick of diseases of poverty that have spread to all corners of Uganda. We had some manufacturing enterprises that created jobs when he came to power. They are mostly gone. Uganda has de-industrialized and is now dominated by neglected agriculture using hand hoes and no fertilizers and services based in Kampala and dominated by foreigners.

Instead of pushing forward Museveni has been driving Uganda backward –possibly deliberately to create a marginalized and easily exploited society. Structural adjustment that was supposed to drive Uganda from third to second world failed miserably and was abandoned in 2009. Since then he has no plan to talk of, in any case, the government has been declared broke. God knows where all the donor money that was poured into the country from bilateral and multilateral sources a few months ago besides export earnings has gone. Ugandans and donors must demand a full account of what has happened.