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Why has NRM ignored unemployment in Uganda?

With all the resources in Uganda and donor money and the work that needs to be done, there is no reason why Uganda should suffer the current unacceptable high level of open and disguised (underemployment) unemployment. Instead, youth open unemployment stands at over 80 percent that has triggered mass poverty also at over 80 percent. In a true democratic country, Museveni would have been impeached. But he is still around governing with an iron fist threatening to crush those who oppose his vision of ‘under-developing” Uganda into a Fourth World country and impoverishing over 80 percent of Uganda citizens. NRM dismal performance is a function of two factors.

First, Museveni knows exactly what to do to get Ugandans to work and end unemployment. But he can’t do it because that would empower and encourage Ugandans to oppose his long stay in power. So to keep them powerless and voiceless, he has chosen to marginalize them through unemployment and disguised unemployment. Without paying attention to lessons of history and how unemployed mobs can easily turn revolutionary as in France in 1789 and Russia in 1917, Museveni believes poor people can be sat on forever. If the trend continues recent by-elections are sending a signal that Museveni’s time may be up for voluntary exit or he could face a revolution of French or Russian style led by poor, hungry and unemployed mobs – and we have plenty of them in Kampala and elsewhere. Don’t rule out the possibility of disgruntled security forces joining the mobs. There are rumors that cracks are opening up in some sections of the forces.

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With a level playing field, NRM can’t win

UDU, an umbrella organization of parties and organizations at home and abroad opposed to NRM dictatorship and skewed income distribution in favor of a few, congratulates DP for a successful by-election in Bukoto South, Masaka. Opposition successes in by-elections after the stolen elections of 2011 confirm that the wind of change is blowing across Uganda and that a silent and peaceful revolution is taking place. To deliver the final blow to NRM, we need to understand how a tilted playing field brought NRM into existence and has sustained it in power. At the end of the 2011 presidential and parliamentary elections, the Commonwealth Observer Mission reported that the electoral process (from registration of voters to the announcement of results) lacked a level playing field (tilted in favor of NRM), implying declaring results null and void. But that didn’t happen because the electoral commission is not independent. Because of this NRM favor, opposition presidential candidates didn’t concede defeat. Consequently the president formed and is presiding over an illegitimate government. Here is how NRM was born and has been sustained in power.

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Uganda needs a leader with a vision and courage of Kabaka Mutesa II

The late Kabaka Mutesa II of Buganda stood firm against the proposed reforms by the late Governor Andrew Cohen. The Kabaka felt that they were not in the best interest of his people and his kingdom. He also rejected the idea of an East African federation because it was not in the best interest of the people of Uganda and his country. He was forced into exile for maintaining his stand. His vision and courage won the hearts and minds of all Ugandans who dropped their differences, joined with Baganda and demanded the return of the Kabaka. The Governor who was a sensible man read the reading on the wall and returned the Kabaka to his kingdom. Perhaps with the Kabaka’s advice, Baganda in Obote’s cabinet persuaded the government not to join the East African federation in 1963, inter alia, because the exercise was rushed. The idea was shelved until very recently.

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Use your voting birth right wisely in Uganda elections

People all over the world have struggled to reclaim their birth right to vote, some losing their lives in the process. Uganda’s independence restored our right to elect representatives in parliament, district councils and lower houses. The purpose of electing representatives in these institutions is to promote and protect interests of all the people in the constituencies they represent. In ancient Greece all eligible citizens met regularly to discuss matters that affected them. As such they didn’t have representatives. This arrangement worked when numbers were small and distances short. When they are large over a wide area it becomes impossible, hence election of representatives.

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Museveni is unlikely to step down voluntarily or through the ballot box

Yesterday, July 2, 2012, I wrote an article appealing to Ugandans to come together quickly and save Uganda from Museveni’s notion of metamorphosis or complete overhaul. Museveni prepared step by step what he wanted to achieve including sending messages or making observations in the form of questions after he has stated his view for those who cared to know where he was headed. For example, in his interview with John Nagenda shortly before he became president Museveni through a question posed by Nagenda (perhaps with Museveni’s encouragement) made a statement to the effect that there are two races in western Uganda – Ugandans of the white race (Museveni’s race) and Ugandans of the black race although both races speak Lunyankole language. He sent a convoluted message about white superiority and black inferiority. But his supporters including those in Ntungamo district have made it clear who is who and who deserves what in Uganda.

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Why have Ugandans continued to support NRM?

There is a general agreement even among staunch supporters of NRM that things have got worse for the vast majority of Ugandans (even the wealthy ones are worried about the mushrooming clouds of serious potential insecurity and instability). Yet election after election NRM is winning. Is it because the opposition parties have not offered a convincing alternative in terms of leaders and/or policies? Or is it because elections are grossly rigged or a combination of both? Notwithstanding, why is it that in the most recent by-elections FDC and DP are defeating NRM even in the latter’s back yard? One may venture to suggest that Ugandans are beginning to understand that their suffering is caused directly by deliberate NRM policies. What are these policies that have contributed to endemic suffering? Here are some of them.

First, when NRM took over power in 1986 it introduced a new Uganda shilling to replace the old one. To get the new shilling every Ugandan who had money in the bank and/or in the house lost 30 percent as service charge – a decision that was taken against professional advice. The government also knocked off two zeros from the old shilling, meaning that for every 100 old shillings you got one new Uganda shilling. A combination of these two deliberate policy decisions constituted a significant loss of purchasing power especially for retired citizens.

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Message from UDU Chairman

Dear Members of UDU:

    Attached please find an essay explaining the nature, history and causes of our political problems in Uganda. The essay is long and therefore those of you who do not have time to go through the entire essay may choose to read the diagnosis and the prognosis. The prognosis will show you that democratization is far more complex and difficult than many of us have assumed; it involves more than removing a bad regime from power. Democratization involves changing the entire society. This is an issue I find many people have yet to understand. Our problems are more than Museveni.

    One of the problems Uganda is facing today is corruption. In my opinion there is no prospect of solving the problem of corruption in Uganda without regime change. I request that this problem be taken seriously and I would appreciate any comments from you on this subject. Because corruption is deeply institutionalized within the NRM regime democratization cannot take while NRM is in power.

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What we have learned since Uganda’s independence in 1962

The discussions within UDU and other forums about the future of Uganda have necessitated an assessment of Uganda’s experience since independence in 1962. This is still work in progress but here are some preliminary findings. Your constructive comments are welcome.

1. Winner-take-all or government of exclusion has created many problems. Future governments should be inclusive on a proportional representation basis. Uganda’s population and natural diversity should be seen and used as an asset;

2. Notwithstanding political deficits, the civilian government in the 1960s performed much better in economic and social sectors than the succeeding military regime of the 1970s and military-turned democratic regime since 1986. Leaders with military background do not appear to be suitable for civilian administration.

3. Learning the art of governing a country on-the-job has proven to be the wrong approach. All the three presidents (Obote, Amin and Museveni) did not have what it takes at the beginning to govern, forcing them to rely on loyalty than competence. Future leaders must show experience, confidence and success in managing a large organization preferably with diverse characteristics as in Uganda. This would avoid or minimize parochialism which has become an endemic problem. Leaders that jump out of a ‘corn field’ onto a presidential stage no matter how educated they are should prove their practical experience. The issues of experience and character should be emphasized. Good character here refers to those leaders that in their lives have demonstrated distaste for corruption and nepotism and are conscious of good public image. When you become a leader you cannot afford to behave recklessly in private or public arena;

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Democratization of Uganda

A special Message

on the Problem and Causes of Political Apathy,

Lack of Unity and Corruption in our Community[1]

PROLOGUE

As I write this message the United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) has been in existence for almost ten months. No political miracles were anticipated or promised by the founders of UDU at the time it was formed in Los Angeles, California, on July 9 2011. None has happened so far. The year in which UDU was born has long expired and a new year in which we expect to accomplish some of our primary objectives as enshrined in our constitution has inevitably been ushered in by the irreversible natural stream of time to which all cosmic events and life are subject. The original psychological Euphoria is slowly wearing off and the reality and complexity of our political task is gradually sinking in. These circumstances dictate the urgency of my message. What we need most now is courage, determination and creativity to forge ahead and liberate ourselves from the irrational fear (timidity) of our enemy and the claws of (military) dictatorship that are ruthlessly suppressing liberty in our motherland.

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Low inflation alone won’t develop Uganda’s economy

In 1987, NRM government launched a stabilization and structural adjustment program (SAP). The first three years under the stabilization component were devoted largely to cleaning up the house through reducing inflation from triple to single digits, achieving a realistic exchange rate and balanced budget and promoting exports. This was a period of belt-tightening which reduced budget allocations to social sectors of health and education as well as agriculture. After these goals had been reached within a short period, the government was expected to relax belt-tightening and begin the process of development and economic transformation and distribution of growth benefits including increased government revenue to increase funding for social sectors and agriculture. Inflation control as well as monetary and fiscal policies would be relaxed as well. But they have remained a priority area since then, limiting economic growth and job creation prospects.

In the budget speech on June 14, 2012 the minister of finance stated that “Tackling inflation remains government’s overriding macroeconomic objective in order to protect macroeconomic stability”. Therefore a tight monetary and fiscal policy will remain in place as well. This policy poses problems for economic growth and job creation. In the financial year 2011/12 characterized by tight fiscal and monetary policy, economic growth of 3.2 percent was the lowest since NRM came to power and for the first time less that the population growth of 3.5 percent. Although inflation was reduced significantly, economic growth slowed tremendously and poverty rose to the tune of 81 percent.

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