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The NRM government succeeded abroad, failed at home

When the National Resistance Movement (NRM) government came to power in 1986, it inherited an empty treasury and many problems that needed vast amount of foreign currency. The export sector and tax base had collapsed. The government tried to raise money through bilateral engagement with western governments to no avail. It was advised to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) first (New African 1987-88). The IMF and World Bank were looking for another African country to experiment stabilization and structural adjustment programs (SAPS) model which had failed in Ghana. Paul Nugent (2004) observed that “…Ghana quietly dropped off the World Bank/IMF list of high performers, to be replaced by other countries like Uganda”.

The signing of a structural adjustment agreement between the IMF and the government in 1987 was of mutual benefit to both parties. It gave the IMF and World Bank the opportunity to introduce a rapid and comprehensive (shock therapy) form of structural adjustment which included inflation control to single digits, balanced budget, economic liberalization and privatization of public enterprises, export diversification and labor flexibility. Donor funds would be released contingent on adherence to the terms of the agreement.

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Kagunga residents want their land back

Rukungiri town in southwest Uganda was recently (mid-2010) upgraded to a municipality by expanding its area into Kagunga sub-county. In upgrading the township to municipality status, the procedures at the district council and parliament levels were not followed, raising many suspicions. Since the upgrade and expansion, more suspicions are emerging from Kangunga residents due to a number of factors.

First, Rukungiri town is surrounded by two other sub-counties besides Kagunga. The other two sub-counties are Buyanja and Nyakagyeme. Buyanja and Nyakagyeme have flat topographical features suitable for urban expansion. Yet the expansion has covered only Kagunga sub-county which is hilly with deep and narrow river valleys making the area not suitable for urban growth. Kagunga unlike Buyanja has no electricity supply and Nyakagyeme can easily be supplied with electricity because it is closer to the town center. Technically and geographically Buyanja and Nyakagyeme should have been chosen over Kagunga. A better alternative is to let the town expand naturally.

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The politics of birth control

Politics is the science and art of getting power and how to use it to stay in power. Thus, politics is essentially about conflict or struggle among groups or social categories which allow those who get power to hold on to it and benefit from it. In these circumstances, politics by and large serves to maintain the privileges usually of a minority against the majority. The minority group uses power to disarm opponents (M. Duverger, 1966).

The minority knows that numbers matter. It tries various ways to weaken the numerically superior group. Strategies include dividing the majority group, reducing numbers through conflict, forcing some to migrate out of the territory or marginalizing the group so much that it becomes politically powerless. In the extreme case, the minority tries to reduce the number of the majority group by launching targeted birth control programs.

At the global level birth control was launched after the Second World War because population in the Third World was growing faster than in the developed countries. By early 1970s the global population had ‘exploded’ from 2.5 billion to 3.7 billion over two decades. This growth took place mostly in developing countries. Developed countries expressed fear that if the population explosion is not controlled it would lead to mass starvation and societal catastrophe. Third world governments rejected that view, stressing that economic and social development would take care of population growth (Critical Trends. United Nations 1997).

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Western bias has undermined human security in the Gt. Lakes Region

The great lakes region of Africa including DRC, Rwanda and Uganda is one of the richest, if not the richest, region in the world. It has natural resources in diversity and abundance and many resilient, intelligent and hard working people. In spite of these attributes, the region has some of the poorest people in the world.

Before slave trade and colonialism, Bantu people in east and central Africa had developed economic and political systems and institutions that ensured human security. Bantu groups such as Ganda, Nyoro, Kongo, Luba, Lunda and Rwanda had established great kingdoms (The World Book Encyclopedia 1983) which ensured human security through law and order, food security and respect for human dignity for all Bantu peoples. All these developments and civilizations were undermined by the arrival of Europeans through slave trade, colonialism and bias against Bantu people. Slave trade took place in all parts of the great lakes region. The introduction of European weapons and hunting human beings caused too much damage in demographic, economic and social terms.

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The relationship between Kagame and Museveni raises a fundamental question

Is Kagame a Muhororo like Museveni?

When an individual becomes a public figure citizens have a right to know who this person is and who his close allies are within and without the country. Because of the close relationship between Kagame and Museveni since the 1981-85 guerrilla war in Uganda, it is rumored that Presidents Kagame and Museveni of Rwanda and Uganda respectively belong to the Bahororo group of Nilotic people whose Luo-speaking and cattle herder ancestors entered the great lakes region from Bahr el Ghazal of southern Sudan.

Bahororo are Batutsi from Rwanda who under the leadership of Kahaya Rutindangyenzi of Bashambo clan founded the Kingdom of Mpororo in north-north-east of contemporary Rwanda and most of south-west Ankole in mid-17th century (Karugire 1980; Ehret 2002 and Chretien 2006). Before Mpororo kingdom was founded the area was occupied by Bantu people. All the people of Mpororo kingdom (Bantu ‘agriculturalists’and Nilotic Batutsi cattle herders) became Bahororo (the people of Mpororo kingdom).

Because of internal feuds the kingdom disintegrated within one hundred years. Bahororo cattle herders who came from Rwanda lost their special political positions in an overwhelmingly Bantu population and many returned to Rwanda where prospects were better. Others remained in former Mpororo kingdom or got scattered in Uganda and possibly beyond.

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Uganda: Rich country, impoverished people

In many ways, Uganda is like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It is a country that was created by the British for ruthless exploitation to benefit the mother country. Following Lord Frederick Lugard’s and Winston Churchill’s visits to Uganda and their appreciation not only of the beauty of the country, fertility of soils, plenty of rainfall and abundance of water in rivers and lakes, moderate climate, a unique biodiversity system and above all, it’s dynamic and innovative people – ‘the Chinese and Japanese of Africa’ – a decision was taken that Uganda would become a center for producing tropical commodities that would feed Britain and the rest of the world.

Reports from travelers, missionaries and explorers are unanimous about communities that later formed Uganda in 1894. They produced a wide range of food crops, herded livestock (cows, goats and sheep) and kept poultry, manufactured a wide range of products of good quality and traded surplus in local and regional markets in eastern and central Africa. Specialization according to ecological comparative advantage (fisheries, herding, manufacturing and crop cultivation) increased productivity and total production. At family level, there was a complementary division of labor. Men cleared fields, hunted for game meat, tended livestock, built houses, carried crops from the field to the homestead and defended the family while women sowed, weeded and harvested crops, cooked, cared for the home and tended to children. Domestic foodstuffs were supplemented by a wide range of wild fruits and vegetables and wild game. These pre-colonial communities enjoyed a comfortable standard of living and accumulated capital. All this changed after Uganda became a British territory through destructive ‘pacification wars’ especially in Bunyoro Kingdom.

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A social and economic agenda for Uganda in the next five years

Whichever party wins next year’s (2011) elections, it will need to form a government that will revise the agenda the NRM has governed on since 1987 if it wants to avoid criticism as a government that has lost touch with reality.

The development plan launched a few months ago is a repeat of structural adjustment. That is why it has not been heard of since its launch. It was arranged to silence disgruntled citizens and buy time for 2011 elections. Commentaries from nationals and foreigners are all in agreement in private and/or public that things have not gone well for the majority of Ugandans under the NRM regime. Between 1990 and 2001 Uganda’s population living below $1 a day was 82.2 percent (A. K. Chowdhury and S. Erdenbileg 2006).

The first government act after 2011 elections is to make fundamental changes in the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank that have driven Uganda’s economy on a ‘bad road and in the wrong direction’. Their focus on market forces and individual effort hoping that the sum total of those efforts would benefit all Ugandans equitably has been an inappropriate policy. While reliance on foreign experts may continue to be necessary, this should be limited to specific cases for short-term assistance only. Uganda has a reservoir of well trained and experienced people who are not being used or used properly because loyalty has replaced competence. Most well-educated and qualified Ugandans are scattered around the world or hibernating at home because they are not wanted for fear they might replace incompetent relatives and friends of those in power.

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The high population growth rate in Uganda

In its report on Uganda dated January 2009, the African Peer Review Forum included a section on population growth (pages 283 through 285). The report noted that “Historically, high fertility rates strongly correlate with poverty and high child mortality rates…). The report further noted that “Recovering from civil war and an HIV prevalence rate that peaked at 30 percent in the 1990s, Uganda now has the third highest population growth rate in the world, estimated at 3.2 percent… The high population growth rate is driven by the country’s high average total fertility rate of 6.9 children, one of the highest in the world”. The report did not mention the influence of migration on Uganda’s population growth. Uganda has a very liberal policy on migration and refugees. This dimension must be factored into Uganda’s demographic equation. The report also did not mention that fertility has begun to decline albeit slowly.

The report covered some causes of the high fertility rate. They include socio-cultural factors like early marriage, low educational levels, especially among females, pervasive poverty, low contraceptive use, general low socio-economic status of women and political statements that encourage large families in part because Uganda has low population density with negative political economy consequences.

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Museveni has deceived the world about democracy in Uganda

Not too long ago, I had a conversation with an old friend. We discussed a wide range of global issues and accidentally stumbled on Uganda. My friend confirmed what others have been saying that Uganda and Museveni have become indivisible – you cannot discuss Uganda meaningfully without putting Museveni at the center. He added a new dimension – Museveni is two persons in one. He elaborated by observing that what Museveni says about Uganda is often different from what he does. He emphasized that the difference between rhetoric and action is planned. He suggested an analysis of what Museveni says about democracy and what has actually occurred on the ground. Below are the findings.

Museveni has stressed that meaningful democracy must embrace “government of the people, by the people and for the people”. He adds that in the case of Uganda democracy must be three-dimensional: “parliamentary democracy, popular democracy and a decent level of living for every Ugandan… There should be an elected government, elected at regular intervals and such elections must be free of corruption and manipulation of the population… There must be people’s committees at the village, Muluka [parish], gombolola [sub-county], saza [county] and district level…

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Why did NRM lose the human touch?

I first came into contact with some leaders in the NRM government at Ntare School in the early 1960s. We reconnected in the late 1970s in Lusaka, Zambia. I participated in their informal conversations and was impressed by what they were planning to do particularly in the economic and social sectors. The agenda was people-centered. To them everything – security, politics and economics – was to serve the interests of Ugandans who are sovereign.

This message of hope was contained in the ten-point program published in 1985, shortly before the NRA captured power in January 1986. Uganda would be united and prosper with no one left behind. Religion would be a matter between the individual and his/her God. The government would ensure that classrooms, teachers and instructional materials were available in sufficient quantity and quality. Adequate hospitals and dispensaries would be built, properly staffed with trained staff, and equipped with medicines and supplies. Preventive programs in line with primary health care requirements would also be provided. Households would have adequate and balanced diets for a healthy, productive and active life. These pronouncements and more endeared the NRM government to the people of Uganda who were prepared to do what it takes to make the government succeed in its noble mission, including postponing elections. The president, ministers and senior civil servants travelled abroad to sell their program which was well received in the international conferences and summits.

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