Tag Archives: population

The impact of poverty and migration on Uganda’s population growth

Because the United Nations Commission on Population and Development has just concluded its 43rd session in New York (April 12-16, 2010) with Uganda delegation in attendance, this is the time to revisit Uganda’s demographic dynamics. According to the United Nations (2009) population estimates, Uganda’s population – using the median variant – grew from 5, 158,000 in 1950 to 33,797,000 in 2010. It is projected to reach 83,847, 000 in 2045 if no major changes take place.

At the national level, population growth is a function of births over deaths, and in-migrants over out-migrants. Therefore to understand Uganda’s population dynamics we need to disaggregate the contribution made by natural increase (births over deaths) and net migration (in-migrants over out-migrants). This disaggregation will help to understand better the causes of each component – why some social classes produce more than others, and why and where migrants come from. This disaggregated information will help authorities and their development partners to make informed and appropriate population policy decisions for each component.

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Population explosion: Africa is sitting on a time bomb

A response

Mr. Peter Mulira – a lawyer by profession – has written an article on Africa’s demography with the above title which appeared in New Vision (Uganda) March 31, 2010.

I would like to offer the following observations.

First, Africa’s fertility is declining albeit slowly thus lessening the scare of a ‘population bomb’ – an expression that entered the demographic discourse in the 1960s.

Second, Africa has the potential to feed many more people than it has right now given its arable land, water supplies (surface and underground) and idle labor force. The problem is that much of the food is wasted through storage, transport and processing constraints and much of the balance is exported to earn foreign currency as required under the Washington Consensus, thus leaving little for domestic consumption – pushing up prices which many households cannot afford. At the same time Africa’s agricultural productivity is very low.

Third, instead of addressing these shortcomings, a new idea has developed: Africans are being urged to sell or lease land to foreign countries and/or companies to produce food to feed people in their home countries – an arrangement if implemented will reduce food supplies in African domestic markets. The case of Madagascar is too well known to be repeated here. The reduction of food availability to African consumers will then be erroneously interpreted as population growing faster than food supplies.

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