Should Uganda opposition use non-violent or armed resistance in the first instance?

I have been receiving comments about why I do not support military confrontation with NRM in the first instance. In other words, why I do not want the opposition to use military means to attack Uganda first? My position is the following:

1. The mood in the Great Lakes Region, African Union and the International Community is not in favor of armed conflict. Protocol on Non-Aggression and Mutual Defense in the Great Lakes Region; African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance and Charter of the United Nations will make military attack on a government regardless of how it came into power very difficult. Opposition attackers will be condemned as terrorists and Museveni will get all the support he needs and enact all draconian laws to cause permanent damage and govern comfortably thereafter. He would welcome that opportunity. We can’t and shouldn’t give it to him. Recall what happened in a successful Mali’s military coup recently: soldiers were forced to hand over power to the civilian. The Madagascar case was also hard for the new government. Conditions when Museveni waged a guerrilla war in the early 1980s were very favorable, not now. So don’t think because Museveni carried out a successful guerrilla war you too can do it.

By the end of this article Ugandans will have figured out who Museveni is

Many – if not most – Ugandans have not figured out who Museveni is and much less what he stands for although some have voted for him since 1996. However, going by the voters supporting him, his popularity is dwindling. The uncertainty about Museveni has led to stress and – combined with poor diet of cassava and maize – contributed to insanity which stands at over thirty percent and is rising at an alarming rate – a process that is destroying human capital formation.

The mystery about Museveni springs from many fronts. First, his birth place has remained unresolved. Some Ugandans and others believe he is Rwandese and that he came to Uganda on his mother’s back symbolizing that he was too young to walk on his own. Museveni has written that he was born in Kyamate of Ankole district, now Ntungamo district. Nina Mbabazi has disputed that arguing that Museveni was actually born in Rukungiri district but did not explain. And Nina has declined requests to elaborate which has corroded her reputation. Then, to make matters worse came Shifa Mwesigye with his own story that actually it is Museveni’s grandfather who was born in Rukungiri as if to deny that Museveni was. Like Nina, Shifa did not elaborate. He has been requested to do so. As we shall see later Ugandans are beginning to tilt towards Rwanda as being Museveni’s birth place.

If you re-elect Museveni you will lose your land

Let me clear two things upfront: (1) we Ugandans must stop the deceptive habit of pleading ignorance when things go wrong and (2) we Ugandans must know that Museveni derives his mandate and instructions to govern Uganda from external sources.

I meet Uganda ministers, MPs and officials regularly. I cannot tell you how many times I have heard them deceive us that they did not know that Museveni would do such and such a thing. They would argue that if they had had advance information they would definitely have advised him against such commission. But when you probe them, more often than not, you discover that they knew but did not have the courage to confront Museveni lest they lose their jobs.

Most MPs are there to protect their jobs and get Museveni’s backing for reelection and are not going to risk all that for the sake of defending their constituents’ interests – they are not there for that! So Ugandans do not rely on your MPs to present and defend your interests. Do not return MPs that have done a poor job. That way you send a message to the new MPs that if they do not work for you they will suffer the same consequences like the ones before them who lost re-election bid.

Britain put Museveni into power, it must take him out

Britain through its citizens put Museveni into power. Tiny Rowlands funded the guerrilla war and facilitated Museveni’s travel. William Pike has led the media and publicity work for Museveni since the guerrilla war days. Linda Chalker a trusted former minister in Thatcher’s government was the first foreign dignitary to meet Museveni as president and has remained a very close adviser since then. Paul Collier has been the chief foreign macroeconomist that constructed structural adjustment program (SAP) based on Thatcherism – get socialism and state out of Uganda’s economy; focus on inflation at the expense of employment; discipline trade unions and facilitate labor flexibility to hire and fire at will and pay low wages; and privatize all public enterprises so that laissez faire capitalism and invisible hand of market forces drive Uganda’s economy and society. Structural adjustment program has been implemented by British economists in the powerful ministry of finance and central Bank. The Department for International Development (DFID) has also been active in Uganda’s economy.

Museveni lost Uganda’s sovereignty in 1987

When you examine closely what Museveni – and senior officials – says and does you find there are glaring contradictions most of the time. This is because Museveni is torn between two forces – the people of Uganda on the one hand and donors on the other whose interests are different. Museveni speaks a socialist language which is popular with Ugandans but acts in capitalist terms favored by donors and foreign business community that control Uganda mostly through British experts and the business community (most Asians are British citizens). In his speeches Museveni uses socialist/populist language based on the defunct ten-point program (which had been designed to end colonial economic structures of producing and exporting raw materials in exchange for manufactured products) which was replaced in 1987 by structural adjustment program based on capitalist principles borrowed largely from Thatcher’s ideology. At the rhetorical level Ugandans like what they hear only to be disappointed by what Museveni then implements that disproportionately benefits foreigners and Uganda surrogates mostly connected with the first family.