NRM limiting Uganda family to three children

There are reports including on Ngoma Radio that NRM government plans to limit children per couple to three. The argument is that land is limited and there is no room for more people. There is something fundamentally wrong with this approach. Here are some thoughts. Details of my work are posted at www.kashambuzi.com

1. UK which has the same geographic size as Uganda has twice the population size of over 60 million.

2. Netherlands which has one of the highest population densities in the world is cultivating less land than before because productivity is very high.

3. Uganda needs to increase agricultural productivity and reduce extensive agriculture of clearing more land for crop cultivation and ranches. Also Ugandans should be trained for work outside agriculture so there is less pressure on the land.

4. Uganda statements are contradictory. On the one hand NRM preaches that Uganda has surplus arable land and is encouraging a liberal immigration policy to bring in more people from outside. East African economic integration and political federation will allow more people to move into Uganda. It doesn’t make sense to restrict Uganda families to three children when we are encouraging others to come into Uganda especially from neighboring countries of DRC, Burundi and Rwanda.

What causes population to increase or decrease?

Demographers – population specialists – have concluded that the total population of the whole world will reach 7 billion on October 30, 2011 and will continue to increase thereafter.

There has been confusion about why the global population is increasing. What is causing an increase is not a rise in fertility but a fall in mortality. In other words, mortality is falling faster than fertility.

There is worry that if the global population continues to grow sooner or later the demand for goods and services will exceed their supply, causing all sorts of problems including famines and war over scarce resources. The relatively easy solution is to stop or reduce drastically population increase. This can be achieved in two ways – increase mortality and/or reduce fertility. Since it is morally wrong to recommend mortality increase, the only alternative is fertility reduction to 2.1 children per couple.

At continental, regional or national levels population increase or decrease is due to the difference between fertility and mortality (natural increase or decrease) and the difference between in-migrants and out-migrants (positive or negative migration). For example, when fertility exceeds mortality and in-migrants exceed out-migrants the population will increase. On the other hand when fertility is lower than mortality and in-migrants are fewer than out-migrants the population will decrease.