First UDU post-Boston conference board teleconference

The teleconference took place on October 24, 2011

The primary purpose was to take stock of the decisions and recommendations at the Boston conference of October 8, 2011 and agree on the next steps.

The meeting also adopted the report of the teleconference of October 2, 2011 as presented.

The Boston conference was well attended by participants who travelled from many places and our hosts in Massachusetts. FDC was officially represented and made a statement.

1. The main item for the Boston conference was the National Recovery Plan (NRP). Participants praised the plan for its clarity, substance and recommendations. After extensive interactive discussion the report was adopted as an alternative development model to NRM’s failed policies. At the request of some participants who endorsed the plan but needed more time to submit written comments, the deadline was extended to December 31, 2011.

2. Delegations commended the committee (now board) for excellent work and timely completion of what it was mandated to do and more in a short time of three months during summer vacation season. Extra work included creation of the website, email addresses of board members, the letterhead and diplomatic outreach.

Change is coming to Uganda

Change is coming. There is no doubt about that. What is unclear is when and how. Change could come sooner than later as it did in 1979 and 1985 that took the country and new leaders by surprise, calling for preparedness just in case (UDU already has a National Recovery Plan). It could come through violence or peaceful means. Our conclusion that change is coming is based on history lessons and internal dynamics in present day Uganda.

In societies where change has taken place, there was by and large external influence and internal discontent. Regarding external factors, the American Revolution was influenced by the writings of European enlightenment thinkers about liberty, equality, separation of power and Thomas Paine’s advice on independent America. The internal discontent was caused largely by British taxation of Americans without being representation in British parliament. The French Revolution was influenced by European enlightenment writers and French soldiers experience in America’s war of independence which made the Old Regime in their country anachronistic. Internal discontent was generated by the wide gap between the privileged high clergy and nobility who did not pay taxes to the government but taxed commoners for their own use and government revenue. The nobility and the clergy that constituted 3 percent of total population owned 40 percent of total land. The Russian Revolution was impacted by external and internal factors similar to those in France. In Eastern Europe, the influence of Radio Free Europe among others and Gorbachev’s restructuring and openness reforms together with economic failures of socialism generated forces for the 1989 revolutions. Thus, revolutions in America, France, Russia and Eastern Europe were created by external and internal dynamics. What about Uganda?

National Recovery Plan (NRP)

Executive Summary

The NRP is based on a vision of free, united and prosperous Uganda and a mission of rule of law, equality and justice for all Ugandans.

Despite its natural resource abundance, resilient people and strategic geographical location at the heart of Africa, Uganda has remained a poor country with over 50 percent of its population of some 33 million living in absolute poverty because of inappropriate policies, political instability, wars and, above all, rampant corruption, sectarianism and mismanagement of public funds. Uganda has been declared a failed state under military dictatorship disguised as democracy. The country is in deep political, economic, social, spiritual and environmental crisis. Corruption has spread and deepened becoming endemic and a principal constraint in Uganda’s development process. NRM has lost the will and capacity to address these challenges. It has resorted to electoral malpractices to stay in power and use of force to frustrate Ugandans demanding change. Consequently, Ugandans and increasingly development partners are losing confidence in the NRM government.

Only true democracy will end Uganda suffering and insecurity

Holding regular elections even if free and fair does not constitute democracy. It is just a small part of a bigger package. In Uganda elections are held basically for two reasons: to give NRM legitimacy and to meet the requirement for foreign aid and technical assistance. To many Ugandans true democracy occurs when public opinion helps shape government policies and behavior including accountability. In Uganda what NRM is doing has very little, if at all, to do with public opinion. What Ugandans want is very clear and simple and we have the means to deliver but NRM leadership is not interested. Ugandans want a country and society that is peaceful, stable and free from absolute poverty which Robert McNamara, former World Bank President, described as “a condition of life so degraded by disease, illiteracy, malnutrition, and squalor as to deny its victims basic human necessities” as well as freedom from abuse of human rights and fundamental freedoms.

If M7 hears peoples’ grievances and acts, a revolution will be averted

Revolutions that overthrow long established regimes happen swiftly. But conditions leading up to them take longer to crystallize. Revolutions thus occur in countries where regimes are incapable of adjusting to the demands of the people. Revolutions such as those in France, Mexico and Russia occur in stages. They are preceded by enlightenment or reform movements whose suggestions are ignored, then the regime collapses followed by a full scale civil war. Countries where revolutions occur exhibit similar characteristics. In France, Mexico and Russia the respective previous decade was marked by famine and economic crisis. The three countries were also predominantly agrarian in which the peasants who formed the majority of the population were exploited and starving. The three elements of hunger, economic crisis and agrarian society define today’s Uganda.

Soldiers and protection of the public – lessons for Uganda soldiers

From time immemorial when people as individuals or groups complain or demonstrate, it means that something has been wrong for a while and needs correcting by the authorities. Responsible governments would engage in a dialogue and find a solution. But more often than not this is never done. Instead brutal force is used to silence dissent.

Peasant revolts that engulfed France, Germany, Britain and Russia among others during and after the Middle Ages represented efforts to end their suffering. Instead of dialogue, they were killed in large numbers. Those who survived were told to endure suffering on earth in order to enter the kingdom of heaven. Their children watched and listened and did not like what they saw and heard. They vowed their parents would not die in vain. They continued the struggle with better organization and leadership until feudalism was over. In Africa and Europe individuals like Machal, Mondlane, Tambo, Mandela, Neto, Pankhurst, Lenin and many others watched what was happening to their people or gender. They did not like it and dropped everything including their good careers and wonderful families and began the struggle to change the status quo and make life better for all.

Background to and impact of structural adjustment programs

This article has been written in response to popular demand. The mid-1970s marked the end of the global economic golden age since the end of World War II which was dominated by state intervention primarily to reduce unemployment and maintain a reasonable level of inflation. The government raised enough revenue to cover welfare expenses.

From the mid-1970s the global economy experienced slow growth, high unemployment and rising inflation (stagflation). The oil crises of 1973/4 and 1979 made matters worse leading to a recession in the early 1980s. Instead of applying fiscal and monetary policies such as raising taxes or cutting expenditure which are politically sensitive, governments resorted to borrowing made easy by abundant petro-dollars at low but flexible interest rates or simply printed more money causing high inflation and external debts.

By early 1980s many countries had accumulated so much debt that they could not service. Private lenders pulled back and demanded repayment of the debts. In order to control inflation, interest rates were raised making it even more difficult to borrow on the international markets. Third World countries resorted to borrowing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to repay the debts. IMF and the Bank would provide assistance with conditions attached designed to address domestic economic distortions considered to be the main cause of the problem.

Change is coming to Uganda

Change is coming. There is no doubt about that. What is unclear is when and how. Change could come sooner than later as it did in 1979 and 1985 that took the country and new leaders by surprise, calling for preparedness just in case (UDU already has a National Recovery Plan). It could come through violence or peaceful means. Our conclusion that change is coming is based on history lessons and internal dynamics in present day Uganda.

In societies where change has taken place, there was by and large external influence and internal discontent. Regarding external factors, the American Revolution was influenced by the writings of European enlightenment thinkers about liberty, equality, separation of power and Thomas Paine’s advice on independent America. The internal discontent was caused largely by British taxation of Americans without being representation in British parliament. The French Revolution was influenced by European enlightenment writers and French soldiers experience in America’s war of independence which made the Old Regime in their country anachronistic. Internal discontent was generated by the wide gap between the privileged high clergy and nobility who did not pay taxes to the government but taxed commoners for their own use and government revenue. The nobility and the clergy that constituted 3 percent of total population owned 40 percent of total land. The Russian Revolution was impacted by external and internal factors similar to those in France. In Eastern Europe, the influence of Radio Free Europe among others and Gorbachev’s restructuring and openness reforms together with economic failures of socialism generated forces for the 1989 revolutions. Thus, revolutions in America, France, Russia and Eastern Europe were created by external and internal dynamics. What about Uganda?

Applauding security forces that protect demonstrators rights and freedoms

Uganda’s men and women in uniform have been reminded that, like their counterparts in other countries, their responsibility is to defend the nation against external invasion and to prevent abuse of citizens’ rights and freedoms by their governments. Demonstrations take place to draw to the attention of authorities that something is wrong and needs fixing. Demonstrations are not about overthrowing governments. Governments get overthrown when they refuse to pay attention to the needs of all the people. For example, in Ethiopia the early 1970s were marked by economic hard times and famine which the government ignored and covered up. People were unemployed and hungry. In 1974 they demonstrated not because they wanted to overthrow the regime. They wanted relief. The government did not respond appropriately. Instead demonstrators were attacked by police. Ultimately, security forces including the military which had remained neutral realized that the government had no intention of helping its citizens. The military joined in and presented its demands which too were not addressed, leading to a bloodless coup in 1974. From time immemorial, security forces have protected citizens when attacked by external and internal forces as the case studies below demonstrate with regard to internal forces.

Political and social revolutions are a copycat affair

Uganda leaders and their foreign backers who believe that Ugandans are docile and will not be influenced by Arab Spring Revolutions need to think again before it is too late. The Egyptians had all along been regarded as docile people. But at the start of 2011, they rebelled against what was considered to be a stable government with strong foreign support, powerful military and sophisticated secret service and within less than three weeks, the government was gone. Foreign backers switched sides and congratulated the revolutionaries for a job well done in the name of democracy and will of the people.

History is full of cases which show that a revolution in one place impacts on subsequent revolutions in places where there is discontent. Common discontent such as poverty, unemployment, hunger, inequality and police brutality etc brings people together as in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen to get rid of a government responsible for their suffering. The discontent in Uganda is similar to what obtained in these Arab countries before the revolutions: high levels of poverty, unemployment, hunger, inequality and police brutality etc. In a world that has been reduced to a village by transport and information technology news and ideas are being shared instantly. For example, many Ugandans already know the details of how Wael Ghonim and colleagues organized the Egyptian revolution from his book titled “Revolution 2.0” published in early 2012. Here are a few illustrations.