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Museveni lost Uganda’s sovereignty in 1987

When you examine closely what Museveni – and senior officials – says and does you find there are glaring contradictions most of the time. This is because Museveni is torn between two forces – the people of Uganda on the one hand and donors on the other whose interests are different. Museveni speaks a socialist language which is popular with Ugandans but acts in capitalist terms favored by donors and foreign business community that control Uganda mostly through British experts and the business community (most Asians are British citizens). In his speeches Museveni uses socialist/populist language based on the defunct ten-point program (which had been designed to end colonial economic structures of producing and exporting raw materials in exchange for manufactured products) which was replaced in 1987 by structural adjustment program based on capitalist principles borrowed largely from Thatcher’s ideology. At the rhetorical level Ugandans like what they hear only to be disappointed by what Museveni then implements that disproportionately benefits foreigners and Uganda surrogates mostly connected with the first family.

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Museveni has turned Uganda into a sad story

1986, the year Museveni became president of Uganda, coincided with an announcement from Ghana that “IMF fails to redeem”. Since 1983 Rawlings had used force to implement stabilization and structural adjustment program. In the end the experiment failed – badly. In 1986, the minister of finance publicly admitted that Ghana’s economy was in deep crisis – the ‘economic success story’ had been a hoax. There were complaints that there was something inherently wrong with international financial institutions’ (IFI) diagnosis of Africa’s challenges and the medicine they prescribed. Rawlings was accused of sowing in the wind by ignoring advice of his Ghanaian advisers in preference for IFIs – IMF and the World Bank (Africa Concord September 18, 1986). Although donors’ had poured vast amounts of money into Ghana the experiment did not work. Finally Rawlings too announced that he had been unimpressed and had had enough of IFI policies (Peter Anyang’Nyong’o 1992). Ghana quietly dropped off the World Bank/IMF list of high performers and was replaced by Uganda (Paul Nugent 2004).

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Museveni imposed birth control without informing the nation

Museveni’s long term vision is to make Bahororo dominate Uganda permanently. But Museveni knows that Bahororo as a group are numerically insignificant that even if their women bear children to the limit of their reproductive capacity they will never attain a critical mass for political domination. Museveni also knows that the military he has used so far has inherent weaknesses that it cannot be relied upon as an instrument of domination by Bahororo in the long term. Further, Museveni has realized that poor and hungry people he has created produce more children than wealthy ones he has also created through skewed distribution of income in favor of Bahororo (Museveni is a Muhororo). He has therefore come up with a silent strategy of increasing the number of those immigrants (particularly Somalis and Tutsis) likely to permanently support Bahororo who will also be encouraged to produce as many children as they can while reducing the number of majority Ugandans through birth control, among other measures. To those not familiar with subtle developments in Uganda this observation may sound mean but that is the truth in Museveni’s country.

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Museveni did not read history lessons properly

Museveni claims to have studied history. It is not clear which branch of history he studied. Did he study revolutionary; military; diplomatic; colonial; negotiations; medieval; modern or all the branches of history? Whichever branch he studied, Museveni’s behavior demonstrates that he learned wrong lessons and that is why he has ended up described as a dictator presiding over a failed state.

Museveni believes very strongly that when you are militarily strong and you are feared (that is why he wears military uniform when there is a domestic challenge), then you can crush all your enemies (Museveni sees dissent in enemy, not opponent terms) with impunity. That is why he devoted his early life undergoing military training. As president, his number one priority has been building strong security forces to intimidate and when necessary crush political dissent. The defense budget has therefore been disproportionately larger than any other sector. Consequently infrastructural, social and environmental sectors have been starved of resources and are on the verge of collapse (potholes in Kampala City are an obvious case) – an outcome that may end his presidency.

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Museveni must be having sleepless nights

Well placed people in Uganda and abroad who have watched Museveni’s rapid rise believe he has reached the top of a hill and has begun riding down a steep, winding and slippery road in a poorly maintained vehicle with unreliable brakes.

Museveni has had four reliable allies: western powers; Baganda and Catholics; NRM; and security forces. Museveni received strong western support for his willingness to implement the unpopular structural adjustment program (SAP) and to serve as a surrogate for one western group in the Great Lakes geopolitics. IMF and the World Bank wanted a place with a bold leader to develop structural adjustment into a development model for developing countries. Uganda was that place and Museveni was that bold leader who would not tolerate complaints about the harshness of SAP.

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Dear Joe

Thank you for your comment on Tutsi Empire project that appeared in my remarks in Observer this week. The idea of Tutsi Empire is not new. It has been raised at national, regional and international levels. If you have been following the debate on this subject and history of relations between Batutsi and Bahutu and Bahororo and Bairu you will understand why the possibility of Tutsi Empire is alarming.

The donor community has expressed concern about this project. Problems between Museveni and the West (donors) began when Museveni dreamt of a Tutsi empire and together with Kagame invaded DRC. The donor mood towards Uganda changed (Business in Africa April 2001). President Mugabe was drawn into DRC war primarily to prevent the establishment of Tutsi Empire in Middle Africa (J. N. Weatherby 2003). During my mission to DRC, Rwanda and Burundi early this year, the region was full of talk about the imminent establishment of Tutsi Empire and I reported this in my article in Observer. Many commentators are of the view that it will be achieved by military, political or economic means. So when Museveni pushes the E.A. Political Federation many think he has Tutsi Empire in mind. And Museveni has not denied it.

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Ugandans have a habit of pleading ignorance when things go wrong

I have devoted some time to studying and writing books on Uganda’s political economy. One of the findings is that when things go wrong at the individual, community or national level, you hear those involved saying that if they had known, this or that would not have happened or would have been done differently. I have heard Ugandans regret that if they had known, they would not have dropped out of school or married early, or sold their land or abandoned their families or ignored their parents’ advice or voted for so and so to represent them at the district or national level or neglected environment issues in Uganda’s economic growth. Another common observation is that when events do not affect certain groups, Ugandans tend not to bother. For example, those who have comfortable jobs do not care about the unemployed. They even blame them for being lazy or drinking too much. It is only when they are directly (or family members or relatives) affected that they care and actually complain that the government is not doing enough to resolve unemployment.

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Museveni underestimated the people of Uganda

Museveni came to power with a feudal mentality of governance. Feudalism was a system of political, economic and social organization in medieval Europe made up of three classes: the clergy who prayed and cared for the souls; the lords who governed and fought; and the serfs or peasants the majority who worked for the other two classes through exploitative tribute and tithes.

The feudal system was introduced in the great lakes region by Batutsi in Rwanda (especially) and Burundi, Bahima in Ankole and Bahororo in Rujumbura. Batutsi, Bahima and Bahororo were the lords and fighters and Bahutu and Bairu (slaves of the lords) the workers who paid exploitative tribute to the lords in foodstuffs, drinks and free labor including carrying lords and their family members in litters and/or their luggage when they travelled. The clergy and tithes were added to peasants’ burden during the colonial rule. As in medieval Europe the clergy preached peasants (and still do) not to worry about earthly material things and to suffer pain on earth for their rewards are in the kingdom of heaven. The story of a camel going through the eye of the needle conveys this message of hardship on earth very well.

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Museveni misled the people of Uganda

Many Ugandans have been disappointed by Museveni’s government in large part because they do not understand why he came to power. Museveni, like Mobutu and Amin before him, came to power at the height of Cold War confrontations between capitalism and socialism. The return of Obote as president in 1980 represented a return of socialism to Uganda which had been defeated in 1971 using Amin. Western powers and corporate interests were alarmed by the return of socialism to Uganda through the return of Obote as president after 1980 elections. Obote was still considered a socialist. Museveni, like Amin, was used by western capitalist forces to remove socialism by ousting its agent – President Obote. Since these western interests were not going to send European troops to the jungles of Luwero, Museverni appealed to disgruntled Ugandans especially Baganda and Catholics to join him in ousting Obote who had ‘stolen’ the 1980 elections although certified by the Commonwealth observer team that has certified Museveni’s victories since the 1996 elections.

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Ugandans have a right to ask questions and get answers

Thankfully, Uganda has entered the Enlightenment phase of development. Enlightenment is characterized by reason: asking questions and demanding convincing answers. Therefore, Ugandans are no longer taking things for granted. The divine right of leaders is over! Anyone who enters public life must expect to be scrutinized. Ugandans have a right to know the history, ancestry, education and work experience of those seeking public office or already there. Therefore family members, relatives and friends of public figures should stop complaining when their fathers or mothers are scrutinized. If they do not want their parents or relatives to be undressed in public they should advise them to stay away from politics. You cannot have your cake and eat it too!

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) government under the leadership of President Museveni has been in power for 25 years. Since 1987, following the signing of agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) major developments have taken place and some of them have raised questions that need to be answered by the government. Below are some of them.

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