Ugandans and the international community need to get together quickly to stop NRM and its leadership from driving Uganda into permanent darkness – it is already in darkness economically, socially, politically, morally and environmentally. The NRM and its military wing NRA applied brutal military force with core support of mercenaries to unseat UPC government through Okello in 1986. Ipso facto, one would be tempted to suggest use of force to unseat NRM government. However, the lesson we learned is that force is very costly in human and non-human terms. Force should therefore be avoided – unless in self defense – in removing NRM from power.
It is now recognized that NRM leadership is bent on staying in power indefinitely by force including through the ballot box witness the overwhelming use of the military during the 2011 elections. Waiting for 2016 to unseat NRM through elections is therefore a bad investment bound to yield heavy losses once again. In these circumstances removing NRM government from power can be achieved in three other ways – first, through the emergence of a de Clerk in the NRM, a Mandela in the opposition camp and a Macleod (British colonial secretary) in the international community to lead their constituencies in negotiating a genuine, lasting and mutually acceptable deal. De Clerk and Mandela worked against all odds to effect constitutional changes that facilitated black majority rule to prevail in South Africa. Similarly Iain Macleod worked against all odds to speed up decolonization in East Africa, averting potential violence. If this option does not work, the second one is to make Uganda ungovernable through civil or non-violent resistance. The third option which is preferable is to pursue both options simultaneously.
We know that there are many Ugandans in the NRM that are unhappy with the way Uganda is being governed through the barrel of the gun, torture chambers, rampant corruption and unprecedented sectarianism that have placed the country into the hands of a few families that are now preparing their children to take over or are grooming their contemporaries to step into the driver’s seat should the current leaders be chased away. Those disgruntled within the NRM should get together and select a leader of the de Clerk caliber willing to negotiate a sincere compact with the opposition parties and groups at home and abroad.
We also know that within the opposition parties and organizations at home and abroad there are many Ugandans who want to negotiate with NRM. They should get together and select a leader of the Mandela character, discipline and record ready to negotiate earnestly with NRM.
Not least, we also know that within the international community there are many friends and well wishers that want to see political conflicts in Uganda resolved through negotiations rather than force. Those interested should get together and select a leader of the Macleod temperament to represent the international community to have dissenters including ‘radical’ ones participate in and speed up negotiations for a quick peaceful settlement. A peaceful and strategic Uganda at the center of Africa is beneficial to the entire community through trade, investment and tourism.
Concurrently, Ugandans should adopt non-violent resistance to bring to the attention of the government and the world their disapproval of the uncaring manner in which Uganda is being governed under the NRM. This strategy should be implemented in such a way that contact with security forces is avoided because NRM government will not hesitate to use them disproportionately to silence dissent. On more than one occasion, Uganda’s Commander-in-Chief who is also head of state, government and NRM ruling party has vowed to crush dissent, implying no negotiations or negotiations on his terms. It should be understood that the leadership of NRM emerged from guerrilla war and has failed to adjust to a civilian situation where negotiations constitute a standard formula for resolving conflicts. It still sees opposition and constructive advice or even simple human rights demands such as for food and affordable prices in enemy terms that must be silenced as quickly as possible. In Uganda soldiers are feared and therefore get what they want by non-democratic means most of the time. That is why soldiers who retired from the army to run for political office have insisted on using their military titles and occasionally wear military fatigues to scare would-be opponents and their supporters and use force to get what they want. The walk to work was a peaceful complaint against unaffordable and rising prices of fuel and food. It was met with brutal force, resulting in death and wounded, arrested and detained innocent citizens some of them accused of treason punishable by death. This manner of governing the country has led to accumulated but silent resentment waiting for an opportunity to explode. Make no mistake about that.
But two wrongs do not make a situation right. Thus, unless used in self-defense, use of force against NRM regime should be avoided because it is very costly. Second, using military attack first against a regime albeit illegitimate as NRM is will not go down well with African Union and other members of the international community that prefer negotiations. Therefore, no sensible person would want to undertake such a daring move without the backing of neighbors and others. It must be recalled that NRA success was supported by a wide range of interests at home and abroad in financial, media and diplomatic circles. Uganda is still repaying these debts in monetary and other terms. The repayment of Burundi loan using public funds has raised a storm of protest the argument being that NRM should have raised money to repay the loan and not use public funds. Third, a good strategist attacks an opponent or enemy at its weakest point, not at its strongest. Attacking NRM militarily which has armed itself to the teeth would be unwise (Iran forces destroyed guerrilla fighters in a short time before opposition resorted to successful non-violent means). Museveni and his commanders would be given a golden opportunity to call attackers terrorists perhaps with outside tacit support and descend on them with all the might he has mastered, pick up ‘undesirables’ and destroy them or lock them up and let them rot away (like the youth rumored to have disappeared) and rule happily ever after and easily establish a dynasty without difficulty or drive Uganda into East African federation without consulting anybody. We cannot open this door for him. Anybody who advocates war against Museveni’s troops in the first instance should be opposed but as stressed before Ugandans should prepare in case of self-defense.
Thus, instead of war let us use means where NRM is weakest. Let us engage in civil resistance including strikes, stay-aways and non-cooperation with the regime (the non-cooperation of workers in the strategic oil sector crippled Iran, denying the Shah the funds he badly needed). Ugandans should identify strategic sectors that can cripple NRM and focus on them. It is easier to harass one thousand demonstrators in Kampala. It is impossible to arrest 33 million Ugandans scattered throughout the country. That is why location specific actions are recommended possibly undertaken spontaneously to scatter Uganda troops so thinly as to make them ineffective (when fleas attack a dog in all parts of the body at once the effect is optimized because the dog’s capacity to respond is minimized). Each location should have bold, fearless champions with a capacity to outsmart NRM. An innovative communication strategy undetected by the regime should be designed and NRM agents that attempt to infiltrate opposition groups identified and announced to the public as is being done in parts of the diaspora. The agents who were suspected are now known.
In Ethiopia, Iran, Philippines and Eastern Europe etc regimes were toppled by non-violent means. These are regimes that were armed to the teeth with extensive and well funded and equipped intelligence networks but the people did not give authorities a chance to use them. So keep NRM stranded with its tanks, AK 47, air force jets and torture instruments by focusing on areas and using tactics that make it difficult to use them. With religious leaders showing long awaited signs of moving with the suffering masses as attested to in their Christmas sermons, NRM is in the process of losing a very strong supporter. Development partners are reviewing how to deal with a once dubbed darling of the west and a star pupil of neo-liberalism and trickle-down economics. With reduced grants the regime will have reduced funds for patronage and the soldiers who have had it so good so far will see no benefits in hanging around and will desert the master or declare neutrality in the struggle between the people and their government (that is precisely what happened in Iran). In Ethiopia the formidable imperial guards just watched as the Emperor was dragged out of the palace and driven away in a beetle Volkswagen, never to be seen or heard from again – sad but true. NRM leadership should draw lessons from these examples and do the right thing. This is constructive advice we are offering to save our country and all our people.
In the diaspora, organizations are combining their forces for maximum effect. United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) is one of them. It has already published a well received National Recovery Plan (NRP) accessible at www.udugandans.org as an alternative to the failed NRM policies. Government efforts to explain background to the current crisis and to condemn external factors beyond NRM control and appeal for calm and patience have failed to convince Ugandans who believe that the major problem is domestic largely due to corruption, sectarianism and mismanagement due to hiring and promoting unqualified and/or inexperienced public servants when experienced ones are marginalized or are languishing in the diaspora.
Taking back Uganda is our inalienable right but let us do so in a way that minimizes destruction in lives, property, infrastructure and institutions.