Greetings fellow Ugandans and friends
There was a time when monarchs in Europe had absolute powers and ruled by divine right (the right to rule came from God, not from the people). In the 18th century, leading (enlightenment) thinkers in Western Europe challenged the power of absolute monarchy.
To prevent one leader or a group of people from becoming too powerful and gain total control of government, Baron de Montesquieu suggested separation of power into three independent branches. The legislative branch would pass laws; the executive and judicial branches would implement and interpret them respectively.
The independence of the legislative and judicial branches has kept the executive branch in check in mature democratic countries. Consequently executive branches do not meddle in election matters.
However, in some countries separation of powers exists in theory only. For example, in Uganda presidents have reduced the independence of legislative and judicial branches and strengthened the power of the executive branch. Legislative and judicial branches have virtually become rubber stamps for the presidency – hence opposition leaders’ decision not to go to the Supreme Court after the rigged 2011 elections.
How did Museveni use weak legislative and judicial branches to rig the elections? When Museveni realized that he was losing, he summoned the legislative branch into an emergency session that voted to allocate him 700 billion shillings he used to bribe voters.
Second, when opposition parties and individual candidates presented irregularities the constitutional court took decisions that appear to have favored the NRM in part because according to reports there are judges who sympathize with the NRM, compromising their independence.
In situations like this you can’t have free and fair elections and you can’t change governments.
There are two alternative ways to unseat a government: peaceful demonstrations or armed struggle.
When Museveni failed to defeat Obote in 1980 elections, he waged a five-year destructive guerrilla war and captured power in 1986. He has refused to step down.
Instead he has accumulated power by virtually eliminating the independence of legislative and judicial branches and rigging elections since 1996.
Because of the destructive nature of armed struggle, Ugandans want to use peaceful demonstrations in the first instance to drive Museveni out of power.
By and large, uprisings occur spontaneously when sparked by unique circumstances. But they all spring from virtually the same underlying causes due to one group exploiting another over a long time.
Since 1971 the majority of Ugandans have been exploited by state bureaucrats. They are waiting for a spark to explode into mass peaceful demonstrations that won’t stop until Museveni steps down. Can the state react ruthlessly using its armed forces and get away with it?
Lessons from peasant revolts in medieval Europe, French Revolution in 1789 and uprisings in Eastern Europe before the collapse of communism in 1990 show that in these societies there were deep-seated and long-held grievances as in Uganda today that translated into uprisings when sparked by intolerable events.
In these three cases revolts were spontaneous. In southeast England the spark came in 1381 when a tax collector tried to enforce poll tax. Peasants who were tired of exploitation exploded spontaneously. The poll tax was dropped.
In France, the spark came from a rumor that Louis XVI was going to send troops to Paris to disperse rioters and control the city. Spontaneously the mob broke into the Bastille prison to get guns and gunpowder for self-defense and long-suffering peasants rose up against the nobility. The ancient regime was toppled.
In Poland there was deep anger of industrial workers against state bureaucratic exploitation. The spontaneous uprising was sparked by dissolving Solidarity union and imprisoning its leaders.
Before the spontaneous uprisings Tunisia and Egypt were characterized by high levels of poverty, unemployment and rising prices and accumulation of wealth by first families, their relatives and friends. The spontaneous demonstrations were sparked by a Tunisian man who set himself on fire to protest abuse of his human rights and in Egypt by a blogger who was beaten to death by security forces.
The revolts in these cases attracted many people from all walks of life and increased from strength to strength.
It is always said that no two situations are alike in time and space. But exploitative relations between Ugandans and their leaders are similar to those in medieval England; before the French Revolution; the polish uprising before collapse of communism and mass demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt before change of regimes.
Can the Uganda rigged elections in 2011 provide the spark needed for spontaneous peaceful demonstrations? This will depend on Ugandans themselves.
Some commentators, possibly connected with NRM, are trying to discourage demonstrators reasoning that Museveni will use state security to maul them down. Some believe this won’t happen because Museveni has been sternly warned by western powers not to use force against peaceful demonstrators. Why do you think no bullet was fired throughout the elections campaign? Apparently, opposition leaders have failed to read external signals backing peaceful demonstrations before and after the rigged elections.
In the final analysis the decision to demonstrate or not will come from Ugandans themselves. Demonstrations have already begun by Ugandans living in exile.
Before concluding, here is a brief message for Museveni
1. Turning parliament into a rubber stamp won’t keep you in power for life.
2. Corroding the independence of the judiciary won’t keep you in power for life.
3. Busing in foreigners to get you re-elected won’t keep you in power for life.
4. Changing the demographic composition of Uganda through liberal immigration policy won’t keep you in power for life.
5. Using security forces to intimidate and silence Ugandans won’t keep you in power for life.
6. Denying Ugandans employment while attracting foreign workers won’t keep you in power for life.
7. Destroying Uganda industries by permitting cheap imports including second hand clothes and powdered milk won’t keep you in power for life
8. Privatizing Uganda economy and handing it over to foreigners won’t keep you in power for life.
9. Impoverishing the people of Uganda won’t keep you in power for life.
10. Keeping Ugandans hungry won’t keep you in power for life.
11. Keeping Ugandans sick won’t keep you in power for life.
12. Destroying the environment won’t keep you in power for life
13. Denying children school lunch while you have money for funerals won’t keep you in power for life.
14. Selling Uganda’s foodstuffs abroad to accumulate foreign exchange while Ugandans starve won’t keep you in power for life.
15. Selling Uganda land to foreigners won’t keep you in power for life.
16. Herding Ugandans into urban slums won’t keep you in power for life.
17. Employing your family members, relatives, friends and in-laws won’t keep you in power for life.
18. Violating the rights of women including tossing them on police trucks and in car boots won’t keep you in power for life.
19. Relying on foreigners to run Uganda’s economy won’t keep you in power for life.
20. Forcing Ugandan elite into economic and political exile won’t keep you in power for life.
21. Forcing Uganda into the East African economic integration and political federation won’t keep you in power for life.
22. Hosting international summits and conferences to overshadow domestic problems won’t keep you in power for life.
23. Corroding the dignity of Ugandans through derogatory language won’t keep you in power for life.
24. Relying on mercenaries won’t keep you in power for life.
For these reasons the people of Uganda are coming to reclaim their country and their dignity, liberty, and equality.
The responsibility of Uganda’s men and women in uniform is to defend the state and her people, not the president and his illegitimate regime. Major General Kale Kayihura and General Aronda Nyakairima are requested to stand with the people of Uganda at this critical moment in Uganda’s history. History will judge you harshly if you unleash your troops on peaceful demonstrators rightly protesting results of massively rigged elections.
This is our moment fellow Ugandans and friends. We can’t afford to let it pass us by.
For God and Our Country