Prevention is better than cure because it is less costly in lives and property. A multi-sector approach is also better than a single-sector analysis because in human endeavors many factors interact directly or indirectly; visibly or invisibly. Many people believe the Roman Empire (the western part) fell because of Barbarian invasion alone but on closer scrutiny there were other factors involved. Similarly in Uganda, there are those who think that Lugard used Nubians alone to destroy Bunyoro kingdom; that Amin used Sudanese and Kakwa soldiers alone to end the first Republic; that Museveni used Uganda and Tutsi guerrillas alone to destroy the second Republic. In these cases, there were other actors.
Some people are complaining that the influx of migrants into Uganda (like the barbarian movements into Rome) may destroy the Republic. The July 2010 bombs that exploded in Kampala City and killed over 70 innocent people including foreigners and injured many more are being blamed on Somalis and have led to their harassment in Uganda. There were possibly other actors.
The intention of this article is to demonstrate that in today’s Uganda there are many factors contributing to deteriorating conditions similar to what happened before the Roman Empire collapsed. Summarized below are causes which led to the collapse of the Roman Empire.
D.C. Heath has summarized the multiple causes into two parts: contributing factors – political, social, economic and military – and immediate causes: pressure from Huns and invasion by Germanic tribes and by Huns. Heath then elaborates the contributing factors.
Under political factors, Heath recorded political office seen as burden, not reward; military interference into politics; civil war and unrest; division of empire and moving of capital to Byzantium.
Under social factors, he recorded lack of interest in public affairs; low confidence in empire; disloyalty, lack of patriotism, corruption; contrast between rich and poor.
Under economic factors, Heath recorded poor harvests, disruption of trade, no more plunder from wars, gold and silver drain, inflation and crushing tax burden.
Under the military factors, he recorded threat from Persians and Barbarians, low funds for defense, problems recruiting Roman citizens, recruiting of barbarians, decline of patriotism and loyalty among soldiers (D. C. Heath. World History: Perspectives on the Past 1992).
Are there similarities between what caused the fall of Rome and what is happening in Uganda under the National Resistance Movement (NRM) government?
In the political sphere, there is clearly military interference as Ugandans increase the exercise of their political and democratic rights. There is increasing military or police activity especially during campaign and election time. For example, the cases of Ntungamo and Rukungiri districts in southwest Uganda are well known to be repeated here. Live ammunition was used in Rukungiri town in 2001, killing one person and injuring others, and more recently in 2010. In July 2010 live bullets were used to disperse citizens who were demanding an impartial National Electoral Commission. This use of force against the opposition a few days before NRM election in Rukungiri district possibly influenced the outcomes (some believe so) leaving behind a sense of injustice and bitterness. In Ssembabule, Lt. Habib Nsamba was shot (New Vision online August 2, 2010) proving military presence at a polling station.
The division of Uganda into so many tiny virtually tribal-based districts that are uneconomically viable will lead to weakening of the state and national unity just as the division of the Roman Empire into two parts (the west and the east) did. The civil war which occurred in the northern and eastern parts of Uganda and the increasing unrest in other parts of the country is a sign of what trouble is in store for the country.
In the social sphere, the NRM government has clearly shown lack of interest in affairs that affect the public. The government’s refusal to deal with rising unemployment including some fifty percent of university graduates, failure to provide lunches to school children that are being provided in developed and developing countries with outstanding positive results in terms of attendance and performance demonstrate lack of Uganda government interest. Government’s unwillingness to allocate sufficient resources to agriculture on which some 90 percent of Ugandans depend for livelihood; failure to improve public health care and education systems and address food and nutrition insecurity represents additional evidence of lack of government interest in public affairs. At the same time massive resources are allocated for international conferences that do not improve the welfare of the people except to boost the image of the president and his government internationally at the expense of the public. This is similar to Rome’s waste of gold and silver on luxuries.
Another Uganda example similar to the situation in the Roman Empire is the income gap between the rich and the poor. In Uganda the income gap is widening between rural and urban, north and south of Uganda and between classes. Over 70 percent of Uganda’s GDP comes from activities based in the capital city of Kampala with about two million people out of 33 million nationwide. Forty percent of Ugandans in the low income bracket earn about 14 percent of Uganda’s income, while 20 percent in the top income bracket earn more than 50 percent; and the gap is widening.
In the Roman Empire corruption was identified as a major contributor to the collapse of Rome. In Uganda corruption has become the single most worrying factor driving Uganda towards a steep cliff. It has been privately and publicly discussed and disparaged by Ugandans and some development partners with no impact.
On August 8, 2004 the Sunday Monitor (Uganda) published an article by Kevin O’Connor titled “Uganda: Christian country, most corrupt”. He wrote “Although it has a sizeable Muslim community, Uganda is the most professedly Christian country I have experienced… Despite all this Christian emphasis, Uganda is also one of the most corrupt countries in the world. One group, the church interest group, almost always escapes such criticism. Should we not be assigning some of the responsibility for what is going wrong around us to pastors, priests, bishops, archbishops and cardinals?
After all, at the heart of Christianity is ‘treat your neighbor as yourself’ i.e. be unselfish, think about the welfare of other people, not just about your own (or your family’s or tribe’s) self interest. Such a belief should therefore be a powerful force against various evils, such as corruption”.
The government and other organs of society have listened, heard the messages about the deepening and spreading corruption in Uganda but have failed to act commensurately.
In the economic sphere, agricultural productivity is declining and fluctuating randomly due to declining soil fertility, deteriorating ecological systems through rapid de-vegetation, rainfall pattern and rising temperatures. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that unless corrective measures are taken quickly, 80 percent of Uganda will turn into a desert within one hundred years. Unfortunately this timely advice has gone unheeded. Meanwhile droughts and floods have increased in frequency and intensity, lakes and rivers are disappearing, spring wells are drying up forcing women and girls and increasingly boys to devote more time to collecting water from faraway locations and diverting their time from many activities that would have empowered them and improved the quality of their lives.
Inappropriate economic policies have resulted in massive deforestation and overfishing to earn foreign exchange with serious consequences. The British colonial administration developed fisheries in Uganda, principally to provide an affordable source of protein to Uganda’s low income households. The NRM government has turned fisheries into a major export to earn foreign exchange that is used to meet the needs of the rich. Meanwhile the supply of fish in domestic market has declined and raised the price beyond the means of most Uganda consumers with adverse impact on protein consumption.
Although graduated tax was abolished for political convenience, a wide range of hidden taxes such as VAT has been introduced. It has had a disproportionate adverse impact on poor households. One disturbing case is the taxing of agricultural produce. Complaints (which need to be confirmed) have been heard from Rukungiri district that any produce taken to market is charged a high tax. What is worse is that if you take a produce say beans to the market you are charged a tax. If you are unable to sell, for instance, because the price is low or there is no buyer, return the beans home and bring them back a day or so later, you are taxed again for the same beans. This has resulted in one principal disturbing outcome – reduction of income. The seller is forced to sell at a lower price to avoid being taxed again every time the same produce is returned to the market.
Finally, there appear to be reluctance by Ugandans to join the military force. Recently while addressing the unemployment challenge, President Museveni assured Ugandans that there were employment opportunities for everyone who wanted to work. These opportunities were in the security forces – the military and the police – the president declared. Given that over fifty percent of university graduates are out of work, some of them for a long time, and do not want to seek employment in the nation’s armed forces might indicate lack of interest. Hopefully, this will not force the government to hire foreigners in security forces as the Romans did through recruitment of barbarians who participated in the sacking of Rome and ultimately its fall.
To conclude, those few Ugandans and East and Central Africans who are benefiting from the NRM regime and those donors who are still supporting the regime may refuse to see the clear warning signs on the wall. If the current trajectory of adverse developments as outlined above continues unchecked it will definitely cause the nation to crush. The clear warnings leading up to the Rwanda genocide in 1994 and to the Kenya crisis in 2007 were ignored. We all know what happened – loss of human lives and destruction of property. Let us collectively not ignore the mushrooming warning signs in Uganda because if we do a catastrophe will occur possibly in the 2011 presidential and parliamentary elections. If we go by what has happened so far there is trouble ahead no matter what intelligence sources report.