Ugandans are wondering whether Museveni is governing or campaigning. He was inaugurated at a scantly attended ceremony (Ugandans chose to meet Besigye at the Entebbe airport from Nairobi where he had gone for treatment after he was attacked by security forces) in May 2011 for another five-year term after fraudulent elections which lacked a level playing field as confirmed by the respected Commonwealth Observer Team.
Museveni’s new mandate came at a particularly difficult time of economic recession characterized by high prices particularly of fuel and food, high and rising unemployment of young men and women many of them university graduates. As confirmed by the former minister of finance, NRM had emptied the treasury to fund its campaigns at presidential, parliamentary and local levels. It also came at a time when Museveni’s role in the Great Lakes region was beginning to be recast by some of his sponsors in view of the continuing wars with genocide-like outcomes and the possibility he may have had a hand in them.
In 2009 NRM’s structural adjustment program upon which the government had pinned hopes for sustained growth and poverty reduction finally collapsed and was abandoned. It was replaced by a Five Year National Development Plan (NDP) hurriedly put together for the 2011 elections. Museveni and his core team especially in the ministry of finance and central bank don’t have interest in it in part because it represents a new paradigm of public and private partnership fundamentally different from neo-liberalism (market forces) to which they are used. Secondly, they didn’t have the money even if they wanted to try implementing it, so they let NDP gather dust in the planning department of the ministry of finance, planning and economic development as reported by the prime minister not too long ago. So you have a country of 34 million people governed by NRM without a plan and funds (the little money available is spent on security forces to suppress popular and rising dissent at home and abroad or is stolen). Museveni’s attention has been diverted from governing the country by three factors.
First, Museveni never expected the sudden implosion of NRM which he has spent countless hours to construct. Because of complacency, Museveni didn’t bother to see what to others was obvious namely that NRM had lost popularity – if ever it had any – because it had failed to deliver except for a few families through cronyism and corruption. So the pieces that had been put together on empty promises have begun to come apart. Sensing trouble State House staffers according to reports are quitting their jobs in large numbers including some of the president’s most confidant assistants.
For the first time, Museveni is being openly challenged for the leadership of the party. The emperor is almost naked! That Museveni is in real trouble can be deduced from his decision to begin campaigning for 2016 elections when he has hardly begun the new term. He has even dropped his long-time confidant Amama Mbabazi as Secretary General of NRM presumably for fear he was using that position to oust Museveni disguised as losing by-elections. With this demotion which Mbabazi resisted, one wonders whether he will be retained as prime minister, a position he could still use to unseat the Master. By appointing Mbabazi prime minister, some saw it as a first step to removing him from Uganda’s political stage. He too must have seen it but perhaps didn’t have a way out. In most situations, it is interests and not friends that are permanent. To keep his interests intact, Museveni has had to let his friend go. People are guessing that Kadaga will be next to exit or severely marginalized. Then Janet and Yoweri Museveni will sort it out as to who should contest 2016 presidential elections so that power remains in “Akazu” (in the family of those born to rule) by turning those to be ruled against one another – divide and rule.
Second, the loss of by-elections even in his backyard of Bushenyi has taken Museveni by surprise. What he didn’t realize is that the judiciary is reasserting its independence and ordering by-elections in constituencies where NRM candidates cheated. The security forces are becoming relatively neutral because the eyes of ICC, the world and UDU’s in particular are focusing on them; the electoral commission is reasserting its independence and most important of all Ugandans in the opposition are overcoming fear and defending their rights.
Third, Museveni’s reputation as dean of the new breed of African leaders in pursuit of democracy, good governance and peace has come under serious scrutiny. Uganda is not a democratic but militarized state. The government is corrupt, sectarian and abuses human rights and fundamental freedoms of citizens that express dissatisfaction with government performance. Museveni’s role in the Great Lakes region is increasingly seen as destabilizing rather than stabilizing because of his desire to create a Tutsi empire starting with Middle Africa from the Indian Ocean Coast to the Atlantic Ocean Coast. Museveni’s push for fast-tracking East African political federation ahead of economic integration has raised eye brows in the community as to his motive, calling for caution.
The recent proposal by Kagame and Museveni that state borders within the East African Community should be eliminated hasn’t gone down well because it is seen as an integral part of Tutsi Empire project. Those who are trying to push ahead with the project and are trying to muzzle others by accusing them of inciting genocide are not likely to win support because we are now living in the Age of Reason where intimidation has no place. So adapt to the reality instead of continue to live in the medieval period of lords and serfs.
Fourth and finally, the sudden emergence and rapid ascendancy of UDU, its popular National Recovery Plan (NRP) as alternative to failed NRM policies and especially its penetrating mass education program has disoriented Museveni to a point of no return. He is unable to come up with a plan better than NRP and is unwilling to adopt NRP whose implementation would require a transitional government to bring in UDU members that prepared it.
The sad part is that while the ‘elephants’ are fighting for political control, the grass (innocent people) is suffering. In a recent poll over 80 person Ugandans reported they are poorer than at the start of last year; unemployment is high and rising and diseases that had disappeared are resurfacing with a vengeance and new ones like Ebola are having fertile ground to grow made possible by uncontrolled borders and deplorable health facilities and weak human resistance due to poverty and malnutrition. Uganda deserves better. It needs regime change.
Since NRM abandoned structural adjustment which had give space in Uganda for experimentation with new ideas in a post-Keynesian world and massive financial and technical assistance, Museveni has lost a handle on developments around him and he can’t recover. He doesn’t have money for patronage and the international media and diplomatic support that sustained him. Macroeconomic stability is gone, regional stability is gone. Museveni should step down and avoid driving the country down a dangerous road. Uganda needs medium term economic growth rate of ten, not five percent as proposed by NRM government. With good leadership, it is possible because Uganda has vast potential, dedicated, experienced and disciplined leadership with impeccable character in UDU. What we want is Uganda to invite us by showing support in UDU program. Ours are not empty and unwritten promises. Our NRP is there for all to see and hold us to account as we implement it.
Unlike in the past we don’t want to grab power at gun point. This route hasn’t worked; it should be abandoned. But to do so Ugandans must act fast so that people power triumphs over the barrel of the gun.