Some Ugandans and non-Ugandans who have doubts that peaceful demonstrations alone will squeeze NRM illegitimate government out of power have asked for an explanation regarding the mechanism through which it will happen. Peaceful demonstrations have worked and their potential for human loss, injuries and displacement as well as destruction of property is much lower than the military option which can be invoked only in exceptional circumstances.
Uganda is a small country with a vulnerable economy dependent on external forces through raw material exports, donations and soft loans, foreign investment, foreign experts and advisers, tourism and remittances by Ugandans living abroad. All we need to do is to convince these forces including our neighbors and all members of the East African community to cooperate with the suffering Ugandans to change the regime through peaceful means.
Sustained demonstrations and civil disobedience will create economic disruptions and security forces response will generate instability. These developments will constrain production of goods and services, cause supply to fall below demand, raise prices and force more Ugandans including NRM supporters to join demonstrations in protest against intolerable hardship, denting the popularity of NRM illegitimate government. Deterioration in economic activity will reduce the tax base and government revenue forcing it to cut back on services further reducing its popularity.
Specifically, reduction in economic activity will reduce production and export of commodities thereby reduce foreign currency earnings and correspondingly cut back on importation of intermediate and consumer goods and services. The business community that depends on imported intermediate goods will cut back on production and employment or leave the country altogether for greener pastures. Rising unemployment especially of youth will lead to destabilizing criminal activities and translate into general anger against the government. The unemployed will swell the ranks of demonstrators in protest against hardship caused by NRM government.
Tourism which is one of Uganda’s main foreign exchange earners will decline due to political instability and reduced quality of services caused by demonstrations and civil disobedience. Reduced foreign exchange earnings will reduce government revenue and reserves at the central bank and limit further government capacity to import goods and services. The elites that have been used to luxurious livelihood will turn against NRM and join protests for regime change.
These developments will lead to macroeconomic instability especially through high inflation as demand for goods and services exceed supply. The donor community will take notice and adjust appropriately in response to popular uprising by reducing or terminating financial and technical support as happened during UPC II regime.
Finally, as their contribution to remove NRM illegitimate government from power, Ugandans in the diaspora, besides galvanizing the international community away from support to NRM will reduce or cut off remittances to Uganda, notwithstanding the temporary pain that this would cause to relatives. The adverse impact of reduced remittances on the government will be considerable.
The media will be used extensively to show security forces brutality against innocent and peaceful demonstrators. And the international community will join demonstrators in demanding regime change.
The total effect of these actions will make the government so unpopular at home (even among NRM supporters) and abroad that NRM will have no choice but to bow to pressure.
There are many examples of successful demonstrations. Solidarity and Civic Forum brought down communist regimes in Poland and Czechoslovakia respectively in 1989 by peaceful means.