There are reports including on Ngoma Radio that NRM government plans to limit children per couple to three. The argument is that land is limited and there is no room for more people. There is something fundamentally wrong with this approach. Here are some thoughts. Details of my work are posted at www.kashambuzi.com
1. UK which has the same geographic size as Uganda has twice the population size of over 60 million.
2. Netherlands which has one of the highest population densities in the world is cultivating less land than before because productivity is very high.
3. Uganda needs to increase agricultural productivity and reduce extensive agriculture of clearing more land for crop cultivation and ranches. Also Ugandans should be trained for work outside agriculture so there is less pressure on the land.
4. Uganda statements are contradictory. On the one hand NRM preaches that Uganda has surplus arable land and is encouraging a liberal immigration policy to bring in more people from outside. East African economic integration and political federation will allow more people to move into Uganda. It doesn’t make sense to restrict Uganda families to three children when we are encouraging others to come into Uganda especially from neighboring countries of DRC, Burundi and Rwanda.
5. The production and export of food is using more land, so it is not because population is growing fast but more land is devoted to production for export markets. In Uganda fisheries have been overexploited not because Ugandans are consuming more fish because the number has increased but because fish has become a major export community. Also some rich Ugandans are acquiring large swathes of land thus putting pressure on remaining land. What happened to Buganda 9000 milo land? Trees are felled at a faster rate not because of population pressure but to earn foreign exchange.
6. We don’t know the relative contributions of Uganda’s population increase due to natural causes (births minus deaths) and net migration (in-migrants minus out-migrants). In the 2010 Uganda Population report it was stated it was not possible to access adequate data on migration. Vital registration records on births, deaths and marriages that would give clues have been reported missing. We therefore can’t decide on birth control without understanding the relative contributions of natural increase and net migration. We need to fill this gap first. Migration and refugees are occupying increasing large chunks of land.
7. We know that poverty and effects of wars contribute to high population growth. In areas that have suffered destructive wars like Uganda, there is a natural tendency to increase population growth to replace their lost loved ones. Therefore let us focus on reducing poverty and ending wars that contribute to rapid population growth.
8. We know that education of girls and empowerment of women reduce fertility drastically yet NRM has refused to give school children lunch that improves school attendance and performance especially for girls. So girls are dropping out of school prematurely and starting having children early.
9. Birth control will not produce desired results because for religious, ethnic and political reasons, no group will accept it. For example, Catholics want to maintain their demographic lead while Protestants want to increase their numbers to supersede Catholics. Some Muslims have told me they are too few to engage in birth control. Contraception isn’t working because it is expensive and has serious side effects including making women lose sexual urge leading to domestic violence. Daniel arap Moi limited the number of children to four among civil servants. The decision was rejected and it failed. Museveni has already limited Uganda population to four children per family when he gave free education to four children the implication being that an extra child would be a burden and birth control would limit birth of a fifth child. Now Museveni wants only three children. He is going to impose it on a rubber stamp parliament. Ultimately Uganda will be taken over by immigrants. See my articles on this subject at www.kashambuzi.com.
10. Problems in Uganda are not related to too many people or rapid population growth in relation to resources. It is a leadership problem. Furthermore, the discussion has been one sided. Uganda newspapers have refused to publish my articles on birth control because I have a different approach. NRM wants to keep Ugandans ignorant when they need more information to make informed decisions. I challenge NRM government to organize a conference on birth control and invite me as a participant and demographer so I give an alternative policy of educating girls, empowering women, reducing poverty and ending wars as an integral part of managing reproduction. Contraception can only be a part, not the only solution.
11. NRM has failed in its economic, social and ecological policies and won’t reverse course. Now it wants to blame Ugandans for producing many children as the cause of decadence.
12. NRM needs to be replaced by a coalition of opposition parties. Some Ugandans argue that Museveni won’t allow it. Off course he won’t because it will work against his dynastic plans for Uganda. He is grooming his son to succeed him. It is the people of Uganda that must get together as we did when Governor Cohen exiled the late Kabaka and all the people of Uganda stood together and demanded his return and the governor complied. When the people of Uganda united against Mabira forest destruction, Museveni couldn’t authorize cultivation of sugar cane by destroying the forest. Museveni will step down and NRM will be defeated only when the people of Uganda get together under able, experienced and patriotic leadership. Experience from Kenya, Zambia, Southern Rhodesia and Chile confirm that when opposition parties get together the win elections.
13. UDU has articulated its policies and recommendations in the National Recovery Plan as alternative to failed NRM policies. No country as Museveni reported in the New Year Message can develop by relying on boda boda, hair salons, video houses and petrol stations. That is what Museveni reported as success stories in 2012 although in the State of the Nation address in June 2012 he promised to focus on transformation of subsistence farmers and manufacturing sector. He didn’t report on progress because nothing has been done. He repeated the role of industry in creating jobs. That is what he will repeat in the next State of the Nation address and budget speech in mid-2013.
14. There is a feeling that the opposition parties’ leadership has failed the people of Uganda. Opposition leaders need to play a more active and visible role in opposing NRM and providing credible alternatives. That this isn’t happening has raised questions about leadership capability. This issue was taken up in today’s discussion on Ngoma Radio. Let 2013 be a year of action by all Ugandans especially in the opposition. UDU is ready to play its part.