Medical doctors always tell us that when a disease is identified very early, there are good chances the patient will be successfully treated. Why can’t this method be applied in politics so that a government loses support by all stakeholders and is removed from power before too much damage is done? In politics there is a tendency to wait until too much suffering has occurred even when there is clear evidence the government is headed in the wrong direction and won’t change course.
NRM under the leadership of President Museveni came to power in 1986 in part because a large section of Ugandans strategically placed didn’t like UPC under Obote after the 1980 elections. Second some western governments suspected Obote still harbored socialist elements and his return to power was unwelcome. Third, UPC government fell out with the IMF and World Bank on macro-economic and human rights concerns.
Museveni came in as one of the new breed of African (military) leaders determined to transform Uganda’s economics, politics and governance. He was opposed to African dictators who stayed in power too long, governed unjustly without free and fair elections and term limits, violated human rights and fundamental freedoms and abused their offices through corruption, sectarianism, cronyism and mismanagement of public funds.
He quickly embraced neo-liberal economics and virtually eliminated the state in Uganda’s economic development assigning the role of economic growth and job creation to the invisible hand of market forces and private sector and income distribution to a trickle down mechanism which had never worked anywhere.
Museveni resented pressure for political reforms especially holding elections within five years. He argued that elections were divisive along ethnic and religious lines and Uganda wasn’t ready. The donor community spared him while pressure continued to mount on other leaders such as Moi of Kenya and Kaunda of Zambia. He also reasoned that implementing unpopular “shock therapy” structural adjustment program which was imposed from outside would provoke demonstrations and strikes especially if combined with demands for free and fair elections along multi-party lines. In order to succeed in structural adjustment implementation, Museveni argued for strengthening security forces to be able to clamp down on dissent. There was tacit support from some development partners. He effectively used security forces and laws such as anti-sectarian and anti-terrorism to curb rights and freedoms of most Uganda citizens.
When elections finally came in 1996, they were held on a no-party basis. Candidates contested as individuals but those with support of the government won elections that gave Museveni more than two-thirds majority in parliament to rubber stamp his decisions like creating over 100 districts with all administrative costs and shortage of qualified staff while at the same time refusing Ugandans in the diaspora to come home and reduce the skills deficit (The Courier September-October 1993). All elections since 1996 have been held at gun point in one way or another and managed by a non-independent electoral commission benefiting the incumbent.
With all the donations and debt forgiveness and power to contain popular dissent, NRM hasn’t delivered on any of its promises in terms of raising the standard of living of the majority of people through education, healthcare, housing, nutrition, employment and environmental management, etc. What we are witnessing is an increase in signs of poverty such as re-emergence of diseases, increasing malnutrition and insanity, sprawling slums and associated crime, school dropout because children are hungry (and government has refused to provide or subsidize school lunch) and teenage pregnancy which is an inevitable follow-up.
It is an established fact that poverty contributes to rapid population growth explaining in large part why Uganda population is growing at 3.5 percent per annum ahead of economic growth currently at three percent. To be effective contraception needs to be combined with anti-poverty programs such as keeping girls in school longer and supporting women in their efforts to have the means to control their reproductive behavior.
Domestic scandals connected with rampant corruption and sectarianism, children studying under trees, starvation while Uganda is a major food exporter, human trafficking and sacrifice together with allegations of Uganda involvement in DRC conflicts and genocide against Hutu people have badly damaged NRM image which was once the darling of the west and served as a role model for economic development and disease control.
While Ugandans are fully aware that primary responsibility for unseating NRM government resides with them as well as choosing the successor, they can’t succeed while NRM government continues to receive financial and other support which it uses not on development projects but on keeping itself in power.
It appears that silent diplomacy hasn’t worked on Museveni and discontent expressed in public to have angered him. He is now threatening (if he hasn’t done so already) to pull out of peace keeping operations if the international community continues to bother him. What message will leaving Museveni alone convey to Ugandans that will continue to suffer when global peace and security is supposed to benefit them as well? Put differently, should Ugandans continue to suffer the effects of corruption, sectarianism, violation of human rights and freedoms so Uganda troops stay in peace keeping operations?
Uganda’s future is now hanging in the air. Since structural adjustment was abandoned in 2009 after 24 years of failure in terms of creating jobs and getting people to work (over 80 percent of youth are unemployed), Uganda does not have a plan. The five year National Development Plan (NDP) which replaced structural adjustment hasn’t been implemented as reported by the prime minister not too long ago.
To stifle infighting within NRM President Museveni has already declared he is going to run for president again in 2016 which means that he is going to spend much time between now and then campaigning rather than governing especially as pressure for him to step down is mounting within his party and the country as a whole. Recently some NRM members of parliament formed a government within NRM government. What more evidence do we need to confirm that NRM as a government can’t function under such conditions!
Thankfully, western development partners seem to have shifted from silent diplomacy to expression of public discontent with NRM regime especially its corruption record and take decisive action by withholding foreign assistance. That is a welcome start. However, those trying to protect NRM government are arguing that freezing donor funds will hurt the people especially the poor and vulnerable that need it the most. But the truth of the matter is that donor money which has become part of government budget never reaches them.
Others argue that there is no credible alternative to NRM. Credible alternatives are available including United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) an umbrella organization of parties and organizations at home and abroad opposed to NRM government. We have developed and published a National Recovery Plan (NRP) which has been well received at home and abroad. It is available at www.udugandans.org.
We are now in the process of forming coalitions with more organizations and compiling a list of qualified and experienced staff at various levels. Uganda is endowed with capable people but under-utilized under NRM government because of sectarianism and cronyism. Brain drain has also taken its toll. Not least, UDU is now engaged in civic education so that Ugandans know their rights, freedoms, duties and responsibilities and the feedback is encouraging.
What Ugandans need is a level playing field. We call on our friends and partners to lend us a helping hand in this regard.