I have followed closely Museveni’s statements at home and abroad. When he began his presidency, the focus of his statements was on ending the suffering of the people of Uganda. He stressed at international conferences and summits that his government was interested in eradicating poverty, not reducing it. Uganda would be an industrialized nation within fifteen years with middle class citizens. He had no doubts about that. He used strong sound bites like metamorphosis and fundamental change to convey his message that he was a new leader on the block. He wanted every Ugandan to eat balanced diet, dress well including shoes, get quality and relevant education and healthcare and find a remunerative job in decent working conditions. He emphasized environmental rehabilitation and sustainable management and ordered his staff into action. He underscored processing of Uganda’s raw materials to add value and increase product longevity as a strategy to economic independence. Uganda would pursue a non-aligned foreign policy, establish good neighborly relations and fight for human rights around the world. And the world applauded.
Then in 1987 he abruptly abandoned the ten-point program which embraced the good things he was saying. He launched the shock therapy stabilization and structural adjustment program (SAP). It called for a comprehensive overhaul of what we had known in Uganda. Cooperatives disappeared and public enterprises were privatized virtually overnight without reporting (I am not aware) how much revenue was generated, some schools were closed and others downgraded causing tremendous difficulties to children, teachers and parents. Government intervention in the economy would be severely limited. Invisible hand of the market forces and laissez faire capitalism (private sector) would be responsible for economic growth and job creation and trickle down mechanism would distribute equitably by region, class and sector the benefits of economic growth. Uganda became a star reformer and an example of success to be emulated by other developing countries. And Uganda was invited everywhere to report on the success miracle in a small and landlocked country and how it was done. Museveni was on top of the world. He attended G8 summits of industrialized countries and became dean of the new breed of African leaders who had come to power through the barrel of the gun. I was strategically placed and watched at close range.
Then things went wrong. High interest rates, expensive industrial inputs, power and skill shortages limited investment, job creation and economic growth. Uganda goods were competed out of the domestic market including by second hand clothes. Indirect taxes led to trickle (bubble) up effect transferring wealth from the poor to the rich. Overall skewed income distribution made the few rich families richer and poor families poorer. Poverty has remained over fifty percent, 10 million Ugandans go to bed hungry every night, over 80 percent of Uganda youth are unemployed and school dropout largely for lack of lunch has increased dramatically, urban slums have spread like wild fire and natural resources including fisheries, forests and wetlands have been ruthlessly exploited to increase and diversify exports. Rampant corruption, sectarianism, cronyism and mismanagement have defined Uganda’s status in the community of nations. Ugandans began to complain and demonstrate at home and abroad. And the star began to fade and invitations to conferences and summits few and far between.
In this unfriendly environment Museveni changed reporting strategy. He became an expert on reporting processes and future plans which represents the glass half full, conveniently leaving out the glass half empty part about ending the suffering of Ugandans. Processes must lead to outcomes that improve the quality of life by reducing poverty, hunger and improving housing, dressing and overall hygiene and happiness. The purpose of repairing an economy that had been shattered by past political mistakes was to improve the standard of living of the people of Uganda. Right now the general welfare of Ugandans is nowhere near that attained in 1970. Absolute poverty stands at 52 percent. When peace is restored as Museveni reported for Uganda, citizens should enjoy their human rights and fundamental freedoms. And those Ugandans living abroad return home. The humiliating and brutal police arrest of Ingrid a few days ago that the whole world has watched on youtube has undermined the peace that Museveni is talking about unless he has a different definition.
Peace means freedom from want, from fear and freedom to live in dignity which are absent in Uganda. Uganda is now reported as a failed state under military dictatorship. And with the sad news that the Five-Year Development Plan has not worked, Uganda has come under a thick shadow of uncertainty about the future.
When Deng Xiaoping and Narasimha Rao embarked on economic revolutions in China and India in 1978 and 1991 respectively, their primary goals were to create conditions for eradication of poverty. And these two countries have done exceedingly well. NRM which started off well has run out of steam. Meeting after meeting by NRM leaders will not reverse the trajectory. Uganda needs a new beginning to avoid events that led to the French and Russian Revolutions in 1879 and 1917 respectively. General Caleb Akandwanaho has agreed through debates on Ugandans at Heart Forum that winner-take-all which has been pursued by NRM government is a bad arrangement. So let us replace it before it is too late. Uganda has bright people with great ideas and experience but NRM has chosen to lock most of them out of Uganda’s development process.
UDU has submitted its National Recovery Plan (NRP) to the government for comment. We are still waiting for its reaction as a sign of willingness to embrace inclusiveness in Uganda’s political economy discourse. NRP is available at www.udugandans.org. Kindly send comments to [email protected].