When Uganda’s Inspector General of Police Major General Kale Kayihura talks about receiving advance information from leaders about planned demonstrations, the date, venue and the numbers expected, he has in mind an ordinary demonstration regarding say a complaint about frequent floods in the capital city of Kampala. This kind of demonstration is not a revolt to change government.
What Ugandans have in mind are revolts similar to what happened during the peasants’ revolts in medieval Europe, French Revolution etc to change the regime or score major points except that we plan to do it peacefully and democratically through demonstrations.
In time and space, revolts and revolutions represent deep-seated and long-held grievances like poverty, unemployment and hunger as well as elections rigging as in Uganda since 1980. Ugandans have been frustrated for a long time and are very angry. They want to stop Museveni who has brought untold suffering from continuing as leader of Uganda after the messy elections.
What Ugandans are waiting for is a spark and this cannot be predicted in terms of date, venue or leaders. It could happen any time and possibly without leaders. Therefore there won’t be time to apply for police permits. Museveni did not get a police permit before he entered Luwero in 1981. So why does he demand one when we know he won’t give it.
Let us look at a few concrete examples of revolts to show the difficulties of obtaining advance permit in spontaneous situations as Kayihura is demanding. Let us note also that police intervention has sometimes turned a peaceful demonstration into an ugly one.
1. The French Revolution of 1789 that ended the ancient regime was sparked by rumors that Louis XVI was going to send troops to Paris to end the food demonstrations and take over the city. In the countryside there was a rumor of impending famine and bandits that would attack peasants in search of food. These rumors sparked spontaneous uprising without a fixed date in advance, without leaders and without an idea how many would participate and how long it would last. “Great Fear” gripped France’s countryside and the Revolution occurred. From then on all French citizens attained equal status in eyes of the law.
2. In the 1980s, Romania was marked by serious food shortages. Rationing of food began in 1981 and the situation got worse as the decade advanced. Other problems included power shortages and human rights abuses. Romanians were therefore on edge. Nicolae Ceausescu was described as the dictator of the worst kind. Romanians waited for a spark to explode. And it came on December 15, 1989. A dissident priest, Laszlo Tokes was evicted by authorities from his residence. About 35 elderly parishioners gathered outside the priest’s residence to protest. People who passed by spread the word. The event was reported by external broadcasts including Radio Free Europe. Spontaneous demonstrations against the eviction spread to other cities including Bucharest, the capital. The demonstrations were violently suppressed by security forces. What started off spontaneously as a small-scale protest grew into huge demonstrations. In the face of these mushrooming crowds, Ceausescu, the powerful and longstanding head of the Romanian Communist Party fled and his regime collapsed. The army that was fed up with the communist leader joined the civilian population in celebrating the departure of a dictator.
3. In Poland, the 1980s as in Romania suffered economic and social hard times including food shortages. Anne Walentynowycz, a worker at the Lenin shipyard had been a faithful communist. But she listened to and witnessed the suffering of Polish people. She began to realize the shortcomings of socialism. She joined the group that later became known as solidarity. From then on she was marked by the communist authority as a potential problem. She was later fired from her job under the pretext that she had been spotted over several nights at various graveyards around Gdansk gathering candle stubs she planned to reuse as fresh candles to light a memorial ceremony for martyrs of the 1970 crackdown. People’s reaction to her firing was swift and bold. Strikes were organized to defend Anne, the crane operator. The strike was started by seven people only who also demanded better working conditions and formation of a trade union free of Communist Party control. The firing of Anne sparked a revolution that ended communist rule.
4. In 1977 Czechoslovak authorities arrested and tried a popular rock band called The Plastic People of the Universe, named after lyrics in a song by the American rocker Frank Zappa. The trial sparked an immediate protest by artists and intellectuals that signed a manifesto for political freedom called Charter 77. It became a vehicle for resistance to communist tyranny with Vaclav Havel playing a leading role. Havel argued in his book titled “The Power of the Powerless” that a totalitarian political system was built on lies which people accepted and lived within them. The only moral solution was to reject the lies and “to live within the truth”. The publication became a blue print that caused the earthquake in Eastern Europe and destroyed communism in 1989. The Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia rewarded Havel with the presidency of his country.
The message being conveyed is that for a revolt or revolution to succeed:
1. There must be sufficient frustration and anger based on deep-seated and long-held economic, social, cultural, religious and political grievances. Angry people cannot wait for outsiders to initiate the revolt. They can help in many other ways.
2. The people involved must be determined from inner conviction (not pushed by others) that change must occur no matter how long it takes and the sacrifice and suffering involved. In Eastern Europe revolutions took shorter in some countries than in others but all got rid of totalitarian regimes.
3. A revolt or revolution needs a spark which cannot be determined in advance in timing, location or size of demonstrators. The reaction to a spark can be by a few or many, youth, women, men and senior citizens or all of them at once.
4. It is difficult to apply for police clearance in spontaneous revolts which could happen in Uganda any time. The security forces have to be ready to deal with any difficulties but they should not create them to sabotage the revolutionary process.
As Ugandans embark on unseating Museveni which is going to happen we need to be sure individually that we have the strength to withstand the pressures of demonstrating until we succeed. Those who are not sure should not try until they are psychologically ready.
Based on western advice, Museveni will not shoot Ugandans. We are also asking Nyakairima and Kayihura to conduct business professionally always remembering that you were hired and are paid from Uganda tax payers’ money to protect them and their families. Your responsibility is to defend the state and protect citizens. You should not compromise on that otherwise history won’t be kind.