Many Ugandans and non-Ugandans alike still wrongly believe that Museveni and his Bahororo people led a guerrilla war starting in 1981 because of the so-called rigged elections of December 1980. The truth of the matter is that Bahororo have harbored the idea of dominating Uganda politics in order to restore Mpororo kingdom which was absorbed into the Ankole kingdom – hence the complications surrounding the restoration of Ankole kingdom.
Museveni and his very close advisers are Bahororo. Bahororo are Batutsi from Rwanda whose ancestors were Nilotic Luo-speaking people who moved into the great lakes region from Bahr el Ghazal of southern Sudan some 600 years ago. Under the leadership of Kahaya Rutindangyezi the Batutsi from Rwanda founded Mpororo kingdom in mid-17th century. The kingdom covered northern Rwanda and parts of southwest Ankole (Ntungamo district). The kingdom disintegrated within 100 years due to internal family feuds. Although they lost the kingdom (and many Bahororo returned to Rwanda while others moved to other parts of Uganda), Bahororo never lost the idea of restoring the kingdom, perhaps on a larger scale – hence the idea of creating the East African Federation or Tutsi Empire.
As a first step towards this goal, Bahororo decided to cling together and to know one another wherever they settled whether back in Rwanda, Ankole, Rujumbura or elsewhere in Uganda, Africa and beyond. Secondly, men decided not to marry outside of their Nilotic ethnic group so that they keep secrets to themselves. However, they allowed their women to marry progressive and potentially influential non-Bahororo men for, inter alia, political domination and intelligence or information gathering purposes.
During pre-independence negotiations, Bahororo who had stayed dormant disguised as Bahima since the disintegration of their kingdom resurfaced and demanded the restoration of their former Mpororo kingdom as a separate district from Ankole. They did not succeed but did not give up either. They continued to plot their come back. Two developments enhanced their chances. First, the politics of Ankole was dominated by Bairu Protestants who would not permit the continuation of Bahima/Bahororo leadership. Catholics who belonged to the Democratic Party (DP) had failed to gain a political foothold in Ankole politics so they were opponents of the Protestant-based Uganda Peoples’ Congress Party (UPC). This gave Bahororo and Catholics an opportunity to combine forces. Second, UPC government’s abolition of Uganda kingdoms in 1967 infuriated Bahima of Ankole and Baganda of Buganda in particular. This created an opportunity for Bahororo, Baganda and Bahima to come together and oppose the UPC government. Thus, by 1971 when Amin came to power, Bahororo had registered the support of Baganda, Bahima and Catholics.
Another development is worth mentioning at this juncture: student politics. Bahororo and Bahima students began discussing their role in the future of Uganda leadership in the early 1960s and possibly earlier while still in high (senior secondary) School – many of them at Ntare School.
Bahororo knew from the start that political mobilization alone while necessary was not sufficient to get and sustain them in power in Uganda. They therefore needed military and foreign back up. They began military training and searching for foreign backing. In order to access military facilities, a large number of these students joined Dar es Salaam University, not so much because they wanted to study law (Museveni did not study law), but because being in Dar-es-Salaam offered opportunities to mix with freedom fighters from southern Africa including FRELIMO of Mozambique, ZANU of Zimbabwe and ANC of South Africa, etc and to get military training and fighting experience.
Amin’s military coup of 1971 gave them a legitimate reason to organize politically and militarily in the name of saving Uganda from a military dictatorship. Bahororo under Museveni leadership began a recruitment exercise, formed a political movement and a military wing. The latter was led mostly by Bahororo and Batutsi. During the Moshi conference to prepare for replacement of Amins’ regime, Museveni got the defense post which gave him an opportunity to recruit in preparation for war because he knew he had no numbers for his party to win an election. Museveni himself could not even get elected in his home constituency in the 1980 elections!
The election of 1980 gave Bahororo the opportunity of a life-time. Although declared fairly free and fair by the Commonwealth Observer team, Museveni and his Bahororo, Bahima and other supporters particularly Catholics judged that the election was rigged and the UPC government must be overthrown by military means. Bahororo quickly rallied the support of Batutsi refugees in Uganda and around the world who constituted some 25 percent of his guerrilla force. Batutsi-led government in Burundi advanced them $8 million (Forbes Media Critic Fall 1994). For geopolitical interests in the great lakes region, Britain, Israel and the USA decided to support Museveni (Peter Phillips 2006).
To consolidate support, Museveni developed a populist and patriotic agenda – the ten-point program – which was published in 1985. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) with Museveni as the leader captured power and he became president in 1986. He formed a government of national unity and became minister of defense besides being president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
The above analysis represents how Bahororo-led government captured power. Let us now review how it has sustained itself in power.
After becoming president, Museveni stressed that his administration would be based on non-sectarian politics and individual merit. An anti-sectarian law came into force. People did not understand what he meant. What he had in mind is that it would be illegal to criticize him if he recruited, promoted or educated people from Bahororo group or his family – his wife is a minister, his brother is a minister and his son is a big shot in the military, etc.
Besides divide-and-rule tactics which Museveni adopted from the British system of colonial rule, he introduced the dimension of impoverishment of his subjects to render them politically powerless. Two external developments which were imposed on Uganda gave him a unique opportunity to act. The introduction of decentralization based on popular will of the people and structural adjustment which called for macro-economic management of the economy including reduced budget expenditure particularly on education and health care, dismissal of public servants, increased and diversified exports, control of trade unions thereby undermining collective bargaining for wages and decent work conditions, and privatization of Uganda’s economic and social sectors.
Disguised as responding to popular demand of the people for better delivery of services Museveni has divided the country into so many economically unviable entities called districts virtually along tribal lines that the idea of national unity and consciousness has virtually evaporated. Because districts are poor, they depend on the central government for financial support with conditions in favor of Bahororo-led government’s political desire to cling to power. Privatization of education and health care has enabled Museveni and his government to have excellent facilities for the rich few while the bulk of the population languishes in collapsing education and health care systems. Functionally illiterate and sick people have no knowledge and energy to pursue political ambitions or exercise their human rights including the political right to remove a government from power.
Using export-diversification and commercialization of agriculture from subsistence to a money economy excuse, Museveni and his government has encouraged or indirectly forced peasants to produce for cash rather than for the stomach leading to extreme hunger and malnutrition. Studies have shown that the commercialization of food has resulted in selling of nutritious foodstuffs leaving very little of nutritional value for household consumption. Consequently under-nutrition of women and children has become so severe that households are spending the money obtained by selling food and perhaps more to treat malnutrition and malnutrition-related diseases (B. House-Midamba & F. K. Ekechi 1995). Under-nutrition has become a serious challenge with over 40 percent of under-five children malnourished, 12 percent born underweight because their mothers are under-nourished and infant mortality rate rising from 75 to 78 per 1000 live births.
It is important to note that brain development takes place during the first three years of human life and good nutrition plays an important role. Unfortunately this is the time when children, Uganda’s future leaders, suffer from severe under-nourishment. No country can progress when almost half of its children are undernourished, physically and mentally stunted.
While other governments in developing and developed countries are supporting school feeding program which improves attendance and performance especially of girls and was adopted by NEPAD, the Uganda government has not supported it yet although it has been urged to do so. This has resulted in a high rate of school drop-out and poor quality of education with so many graduates unemployable, poor and vulnerable without a political voice in matters that affect their lives.
The situation of youth unemployment is despicable. Statistics show that some 80 percent of Ugandans including fifty percent of university graduates are unemployed. If you add on the under-employed youth you realize that the future of Uganda is very bleak. Unemployment, stress and poor feeding have resulted in massive neurological disabilities including insanity, amounting to human capital de-investment. Unemployment of youths has led to excessive alcoholism, violence and criminal activities leading to massive arrests and imprisonment thereby locking away potential voters who could vote for a change of government.
Museveni and his Bahororo-led NRM government think that by dividing Uganda into tiny districts that rely on the central government for budget support in return for political favors to Bahororo and impoverishing the majority of Ugandans will remove political obstacles and Bahororo will rule Uganda in perpetuity. This model could turn out to be counter-productive. Uganda has already become so politically unstable and economically, socially and ecologically fragile that continuation along this path is unwise.
Thus, using military force, relying on foreign support, rigging elections, disuniting the country and impoverishing citizens has limitations and the writing is clearly on the wall. To prevent the situation from getting worse, we appeal to the donor community that has sustained Bahororo-led government in power for over twenty years to rethink their development cooperation agenda. A stable Uganda is good not only for Ugandans but also for all people whether or not they reside in Uganda