NRM is definitely headed in the wrong direction

Medical doctors always tell us that when a disease is identified very early, there are good chances the patient will be successfully treated. Why can’t this method be applied in politics so that a government loses support by all stakeholders and is removed from power before too much damage is done? In politics there is a tendency to wait until too much suffering has occurred even when there is clear evidence the government is headed in the wrong direction and won’t change course.

NRM under the leadership of President Museveni came to power in 1986 in part because a large section of Ugandans strategically placed didn’t like UPC under Obote after the 1980 elections. Second some western governments suspected Obote still harbored socialist elements and his return to power was unwelcome. Third, UPC government fell out with the IMF and World Bank on macro-economic and human rights concerns.

Museveni came in as one of the new breed of African (military) leaders determined to transform Uganda’s economics, politics and governance. He was opposed to African dictators who stayed in power too long, governed unjustly without free and fair elections and term limits, violated human rights and fundamental freedoms and abused their offices through corruption, sectarianism, cronyism and mismanagement of public funds.

Success or failure is a matter of strategy

Too often people involved in the struggle for change confuse the goal and the strategy or the means to achieve the goal. The goal remains the same but the strategy adapts to changing circumstances. Let us take South Africa as an illustration. The African National Congress (ANC) was formed in 1912 to end a white minority system of government (the goal) by non-violent means based on Gandhian principles and tactics (the strategy). However, following the massacre of peaceful demonstrators at Sharpeville in 1960, ANC changed the strategy from nonviolent campaign to armed struggle. The goal or the principle remained the same. The war got prolonged and became very destructive and expensive on both sides. Under the mature and wise leadership of Mandela and de Clerk and perhaps assisted by a hidden external hand, ANC and apartheid government decided to negotiate a settlement. The ANC suspended the guerrilla war and began negotiations (a new strategy) to end the white minority system of government (the original goal). In 1994 after hard negotiations of give and take the white minority government system was defeated at the negotiating table and black majority rule was achieved with Mandela as president, Mbeki as first deputy president and de Clerk the last president under the white minority government as second deputy president. In the course of the negotiations the whites were assured that they would not be thrown into the ocean. Three further observations are in order. First, it is important to note that negotiations cannot take place until both sides have agreed to the solution. A third party working covertly or overtly may be needed to create an environment for a decision to be taken and negotiations to begin. Second, negotiations must be conducted with honesty by all stakeholders and implement the agreement reached. Third, negotiations must continue notwithstanding obstacles that may even lead to a temporary breakdown until an agreement is reached.