Tag Archives: nrm

Let us not start war against NRM government

We know that when a government fails to take responsibility for the welfare of the people, it should be removed from power. In the last 26 years NRM government has failed to deliver basic services. Ugandans have tried to remove it from power through the ballot box without success. And it is not likely to happen in the foreseeable future without term limits and an independent electoral commission. Logically, some Ugandans are reasoning that since the ballot box has failed, we must resort to war. But some Ugandans have said no. This does not mean that those who do not want war are cowards. It means that they are pragmatic. Starting a war against a recognized government regardless of how it came into power will be condemned by the international community and come to the government’s rescue. In fact, NRM would welcome such attack to give it a golden opportunity to arrest real and imagined enemies of the state in the name of national security against terrorists and put them away for good. It would also help NRM divert development resources to war efforts and impoverish Ugandans further without being blamed. So Ugandans eager to fight need to understand fully the environment at home and abroad in which they are operating before definitive actions are taken.

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If Museveni did it, so can we

As readers and friends know by now, I am not in favor of removing NRM military dictatorship by force in the first instance. I have used the phrase “in the first instance” to mean that if non-violent methods fail or NRM uses excessive force to crush civil resistance then Ugandans have a right to use defensive force as a last resort. So contrary to critics, I am not ruling out military force and training should continue. But military force should not be used in the first instance. That is the difference: peaceful means should come first and military last if absolutely necessary. Further, the principle objective of regime change must remain the same. But removing NRM system does not mean that all known NRM supporters will be thrown into the ocean with stones around their necks so they drown. No: only those who have committed crimes against humanity will be dealt with according to national and international laws. Those innocent NRM supporters have nothing to fear. In fact they should join with us in the opposition to speed up NRM exit and form a transitional government of all Ugandans to prepare for free and fair multi-party elections.

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External reporting on Uganda is misleading the public

The people of Uganda are hurting very badly under the NRM regime. Their conditions are getting worse. Ugandans are eating poorly, dressing poorly, sleeping poorly. When people struggle to get one meal of cassava a day; when people can only afford used clothes not even appropriate for their climate; when a whole family sleeps in one room on the floor sometimes with domestic animals; when parents force their daughters into early marriage to make ends meets that is a society in real trouble. I am describing Uganda society which is beginning to say Amin administration was better than Museveni’s. I am saying this from first-hand knowledge accumulated over many years. In my research, I have had the opportunity to interact with many people from all walks of life. I have visited churches, administrative offices, schools, homes, market places and vendors on the street. I have even travelled by bus many times between my home town of Rukungiri and the nation’s capital Kampala to hear passenger stories. I have visited homes at critical moments – at meal times, at bed times. I have also conversed with Uganda bureaucrats, politicians and donors. I have heard and seen it all: not from books but from real people. Some of the stories I have heard and things I have seen are horrible. People want enabling environment (roads, affordable electricity, etc) to struggle on their own but they are not getting it.

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NRM policies are ruining Uganda

Let me start with this statement by way of clearing the air. Some have raised questions, even written to me, about my motive for writing so much in so short a time: who is behind it, who are my research assistants and who is funding it? Some have even suggested that I am driven by a desire to unseat NRM government and President Museveni in particular; that I am too radical, too assertive, too sectarian.

Let me make it very clear and hopefully for the last time. Because I was uncomfortable with the way geography, economics, population and history were taught in senior secondary school and at the undergraduate university level – because what they taught did not match the situation on the ground where I was born and raised in southwest Uganda – I decided very early that I was going to study in a multidisciplinary fashion and do multidisciplinary research in order to understand the interconnections and correct distortions in those subjects. It is therefore not by accident that I studied geography, demography (population), economics, international law, international relations, sustainable development and world history. And because I did not want to be influenced by anybody in one way or another, I never asked for or accepted sponsorship, or mentor or research assistance. So I have worked alone to this point.

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NRM can easily be unseated on four conditions

The popularity of NRM among Ugandans at home and abroad including many in NRM itself has sunk to the lowest level. The uncaring attitude of NRM to the suffering of Ugandans particularly women and children especially during the current economic hard times so soon after NRM was re-elected for another five-year term has driven the point home that Museveni – who is the de facto government of Uganda – does not care about Ugandans. He only uses them in pursuit of his imperial ambitions including changing the demographic composition of Uganda by increasing immigrants, ultimately turning indigenous population into a minority in their own country.

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NRM has become a liability for its sponsors and supporters

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) came to power with domestic and external sponsors (those who fund and champion its cause) and gained supporters (those who are won over). The original sponsors and supporters of NRM inside Uganda had suffered political losses under Obote’s government – Catholics had lost elections twice to UPC and Buganda had lost the kingdom and ‘Lost counties’ referendum. Those who sponsored and supported NRM outside Uganda did not trust Obote despite his pledge to introduce capitalism under structural adjustment. They believed he was still a socialist and could not be trusted. The common characteristic is that those against Obote and UPC were in a hurry and could not wait for the next elections in 1985 or 1986 to defeat UPC that won the 1980 elections. They chose a military option for quicker results. Various guerrilla groups were formed, some of them merged into the NRM. NRM captured power in 1986 exactly five years when elections were due. So the results were not quicker but were clearly very destructive of lives, property and infrastructure and many deficits still remain unresolved.

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NRM can be unseated by peaceful strategies

There is general consensus that NRM has reached a point of no return. It has been bedeviled by rampant corruption, sectarianism, human rights abuses and infighting. It is therefore rotting away and features of decadence are there for all to see. The economy is in a comma – or very close – and social sectors are dying – if not dead already witness some hospital wards that have turned into hospices – and the environment is drifting towards desert conditions as warned by a United Nations agency not so long ago. NRM propaganda based on economic growth and expected social benefits from oil has not convinced the public so has the argument that external factors are responsible for Uganda’s economic, social and ecological illness. NRM has lost the will and capacity (in part because the government is broke) to adjust to the wind of change. Ipso facto, it has tenaciously clung to the discredited and subsequently abandoned neo-liberal economics which failed in many respects including trickle down mechanism to distribute equitably the benefits of economic growth.

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NRM has nowhere else to go but negotiate reforms

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) thought that it had created a favorable permanent situation and developed immunity against challenge after 1987 when it signed a stabilization and structural adjustment program (SAP) with the IMF, started to enjoy rapid economic growth (in large part because of excess capacity inherited in 1986 now almost exhausted) and established macroeconomic stability by keeping inflation in single digits through raising interest rates, balanced the budget by removing subsidies and dismissing public servants, accumulated foreign currency reserves in the central bank to guarantee continued imports for the rich and received massive external support.

NRM speeches were full of confidence and vibrancy stressing that market forces, laissez faire and trickledown would solve all problems. All NRM needed to do was to make sure that opposition was not allowed to say anything negative. The military, police, intelligence and prisons were expanded to deal with dissent. Lack of demonstrations was interpreted by the outside world as a sign of stability. Invitations to make speeches about Uganda’s success story at UN and G8 summits blinded NRM government to creeping signs of exhaustion and possible failure. Museveni even declared that there was no problem he could not solve.

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NRM must be unseated by peaceful means

Ugandans and the international community need to get together quickly to stop NRM and its leadership from driving Uganda into permanent darkness – it is already in darkness economically, socially, politically, morally and environmentally. The NRM and its military wing NRA applied brutal military force with core support of mercenaries to unseat UPC government through Okello in 1986. Ipso facto, one would be tempted to suggest use of force to unseat NRM government. However, the lesson we learned is that force is very costly in human and non-human terms. Force should therefore be avoided – unless in self defense – in removing NRM from power.

It is now recognized that NRM leadership is bent on staying in power indefinitely by force including through the ballot box witness the overwhelming use of the military during the 2011 elections. Waiting for 2016 to unseat NRM through elections is therefore a bad investment bound to yield heavy losses once again. In these circumstances removing NRM government from power can be achieved in three other ways – first, through the emergence of a de Clerk in the NRM, a Mandela in the opposition camp and a Macleod (British colonial secretary) in the international community to lead their constituencies in negotiating a genuine, lasting and mutually acceptable deal. De Clerk and Mandela worked against all odds to effect constitutional changes that facilitated black majority rule to prevail in South Africa. Similarly Iain Macleod worked against all odds to speed up decolonization in East Africa, averting potential violence. If this option does not work, the second one is to make Uganda ungovernable through civil or non-violent resistance. The third option which is preferable is to pursue both options simultaneously.

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Message for NRM legislators (MPs) on East African cooperation

I have learned that one of the principal purposes of the just concluded Kyankwanzi week long seminar for NRM legislators was to discuss acceleration of the East African economic integration and political federation. I have written extensively on this subject and posted articles on Ugandans at Heart Forum and on www.kashambuzi.com. Therefore the message to NRM legislators will be brief.

As a majority party in parliament you have a special responsibility to promote, defend and protect the interests of Ugandans in whatever you do. Any negotiation must bring net gains to Uganda. The history of the East African cooperation appears to have yielded fewer benefits but more losses to Uganda. This must be avoided in the current and future negotiations. To prepare yourselves well you may need to look at what has happened or is happening in other parts of the world engaged in a similar exercise.

Regarding political federation MPs are urged to study why the following failures have occurred:

1. The Central African federation of Northern and Southern Rhodesia and Nyasaland;

2. The Yugoslavia federation;

3. The czechoslovakia federation

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