Many Ugandans and some non-Ugandans especially from the great lakes region believe – rightly or wrongly – that Museveni will do everything to get reelected to avoid being dragged to the International Criminal Court (ICC) on allegations of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. He will also ensure that he gets over two-thirds of NRM candidates elected so that Parliament rubber stamps his decisions. Then the following will likely occur as mentioned in conversations so far.
1. The defeated Ugandans will adopt a passive resistance strategy that will further cripple the economy that is already in bad shape with over 55 percent of Ugandans living below the poverty line.
2. Museveni will basically retain his present core cabinet of ‘yes men and women’ who will continue to tell him what he wants to hear. He will likely create a new ministry of petroleum or expand the current ministry of energy and appoint one of his closest relatives turning oil revenue from a savior to a curse for Ugandans.
Uganda’s history since colonial days is characterized by forceful relations between the government and people – with the government applying instruments of force on the governed to get what it wants. Resistance to colonial rule ended through the use of force and foreign troops. Other examples of force used on Ugandans during colonial rule include the following:
1. Taxes in cash which were imposed to force Ugandans to become migrant laborers in areas growing export crops. 2. Uganda was forced to abandon industries and to grow cotton, coffee, tea and tobacco for export. 3. Labor reserve areas were forced to not grow export crops. 4. Different tribes with very little or nothing in common were forced into administrative units.
5. Indirect rule chiefs and advisers were imposed on the people. 6. Strict law and order was imposed through an elaborate system of police, prisons and the judiciary. 7. Ugandans were forced to abandon their gods and their traditions including medicine and culture. 8. Ugandans were forced to sell their raw produce cheaply to Asians who processed them and enjoyed the benefits of value addition and higher world market prices.