Uganda politics is a mixture of religion and ethnicity

I have been involved in Uganda politics at theoretical and practical levels since 1960 when I was in high school (senior two). I participated in district and national elections as a polling officer in former Ankole and Kigezi districts. I was also involved in student politics and the political processes that culminated in the Moshi conference before Amin fell from power in 1979.

At the height of political activities during the 1970s I worked in Brussels (Belgium), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) and Lusaka (Zambia), where Ugandans lived as refugees (Lusaka), workers at ECA and OAU (Addis Ababa) and delegates to international conferences (Addis Ababa and Brussels). I moved to New York in the mid-1980s when politics among Ugandans was hot before the fall of Obote II government.

The conditions of my job in these places and my own neutral orientation offered me a unique opportunity to interact with many Ugandans. Throughout these interactions I did more listening than talking and got a feel of Uganda’s political pulse and the forces involved. My literary work about Uganda politics and economics has benefited from these interactions and the knowledge accumulated since 1960.

Rwanda government can do what it wants with impunity

I have read, listened to debates and conversed with many people in Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Uganda and the United Nations in New York to find out why Rwanda authorities – government and armed forces – are not held accountable for the atrocities they are reported to have committed since 1990 when RPF (Rwanda Patriotic Front) invaded Rwanda and are still committing in Eastern DRC and Rwanda itself.

In January/February 2010, I spent thirty days in Burundi, DRC and Rwanda and conversed with many people from all walks of life. I got a lot of information mostly from informal and anonymous conversations. The following information is what I have collected before, during and after the mission. I am making this contribution in an effort to find a durable solution to the challenges not only in Rwanda but in the Great Lakes region as a whole.

Enabling environment

Some developments have emboldened Rwanda government (and its army) to do what it wants with impunity. Here are some of them.

NRM government must accept responsibility for its actions

On Monday April 19, 2010 President Museveni launched Uganda’s five-year development plan. During the ceremony, he stated that at the beginning of his administration in 1986, NRM had plans to introduce a development plan but it was told that planning was out of date. Instead NRM was told to control inflation, ensure macro stability and leave the rest to the private sector. He did not specify who gave this advice.

When NRM came to power, it soon realized that unless it entered into an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) first, external funding would be withheld. For almost a year and a half, the government debated various options of engagement with the IMF under Washington Consensus or stabilization and structural adjustment conditions. The debates chaired or attended by the president were dominated by two schools of thought represented by the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development. The Ministry of Finance and possibly Central Bank opted for a gradual and sequenced approach to minimize the costs of adjustment drawing lessons from Obote II government’s experience with structural adjustment began in 1981. The Ministry of Planning and Economic Development supported a ‘shock therapy’ alternative that required implementation of all adjustment conditions at once. Finally, the President endorsed the shock therapy alternative.

Government priority setting has undermined the health sector in Uganda

The recently concluded 43rd session of the Commission on Population and Development (April 12-16, 2010), had an intensive debate on Health, Morbidity, Mortality and Development. Uganda was represented at the meeting, participated actively in the debates and made a statement at the plenary.

It was recognized that while commendable progress had been made in health over the last ten years, much more remained to be done in many developing countries especially the least developed ones to address the ‘double burden’ of infectious and parasitic diseases, emerging and re-emerging communicable diseases, and increasing non-communicable diseases such as hypertension, stroke and diabetes. Maternal and child health had made the slowest progress in the last decade. It was stressed that poverty, inequality and vulnerability have had far-reaching repercussions on the health of many people within and between nations.

The commission stressed that improving health will need to go beyond constructing hospitals and clinics and providing medicines, and adopt a multi-sector approach that includes health education, nutrition, safe drinking water, hygiene and sanitation, environmental protection, reproductive health, training and retention of staff.

NRM government must tackle youth unemployment

Rising youth unemployment including university graduates and the associated poverty and hunger are approaching dangerous and potentially explosive proportions. It is now clear that market forces and the invisible hand that have guided Uganda’s economy since 1987 are unable to generate enough jobs.

The Great Depression of the 1930s which was marked by massive unemployment, poverty and food insecurity contributed to the Second World War with deadly human consequences. John Maynard Keynes, the British economist, realized that in times of economic distress fiscal policy – government increased spending – should be used as a tool to manage the economy.

Until the Great Depression, the assumption had been that the economy was self-regulated and the invisible hand of the market forces left to its own devices would automatically raise economic output and employment to optimal levels. Keynes who disagreed with this approach argued that during times of economic distress, the drop in aggregate demand for goods and services could cause further economic contraction and raise unemployment which the invisible hand could not handle. He suggested that it was government responsibility to kick-start the economy by borrowing and spending on public infrastructure projects – roads, schools, hospitals etc – so that the funds spent would raise economic growth, create jobs and reduce unemployment.

Disintegration of DRC and birth of Tutsi Empire

I have just completed a thirty day mission (January/February 2010) to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Burundi and Rwanda. The buzz phrase was “Anglo-saxon neo-colonialism, possible disintegration of DRC and the birth of a Tutsi Empire”. The following report represents stories heard and interviews conducted formally and informally.

There is a strong feeling especially among Congolese that since the 1980s (Peter Phillips 2006) Anglo-saxons and allies have been trying to take over DRC and other countries in the Great Lakes region through Tutsi surrogates (who also coincidentally harbor the idea of establishing a Tutsi Empire in the region and possibly beyond) because of the region’s vast natural and human wealth and strategic advantages.

Congolese and others reasoned that the overthrow of the second Obote government in Uganda in 1985 and the eventual coming to power of Batutsi-led government in 1986 with Yoweri Museveni as leader (Museveni is considered a Tutsi {Jeffrey Herbst 2000}); the overthrow of the Habyarimana regime in Rwanda in 1994 and the coming to power of Batutsi-led government with Paul Kagame, a Mututsi, as leader; the second coming to power of Pierre Buyoya, a Mututsi, in Burundi in 1996 through a Batutsi military coup and; the overthrow in 1997 of the government of Mobutu Sese Seko in Zaire led by Batutsi from Rwanda, Eastern Zaire (now DRC), Burundi and Uganda was a prelude to the establishment of a Tutsi Empire by military means with foreign backing.

Bahororo-led NRM government has failed Uganda

When individuals, parties or nations assume leadership responsibilities, they should expect and accept scrutiny provided it is objective and constructive.

The rise to power of Bahororo people from obscurity to national and international prominence has raised questions about who Bahororo are and how they emerged. Until they came to power in 1986, Bahororo were unknown because they registered or introduced themselves as Bahima. So who are Bahororo?

Bahororo are Batutsi people from Rwanda who founded the short-lived Mpororo kingdom (from about 1650 to about 1750 or earlier) which stretched from parts of present day northern Rwanda to parts of present day southwest Uganda.