Why Museveni will not step down voluntarily

Yoweri Museveni believes very strongly – and he has said so – that he – and his mercenaries from the great lakes region – fought and defeated Ugandans. Therefore Uganda and Ugandans are his properties and he has every right to do what he wants with them such as keeping some Ugandans in the diaspora, appointing over seventy ministers and dividing the country into over 100 districts and still counting as well as giving land away to non-Ugandans.

If he had not been forced by western powers that provide financial, technical and diplomatic support, Museveni would not have accepted elections because conquered people have no right to tell him what to do. Although he accepted elections, he cannot see himself or his National Resistance Movement Organization (NRM) losing an election at the presidential, parliamentary and local levels. And that is why he can defy everybody by refusing to have an independent electoral commission or invade the treasury and central bank (as we are told) and get all the money he wants to bribe voters and disenfranchise others as well as bring in foreigners to vote for him and his party. He has crafted a plan to stay in power indefinitely.

First, he has decided to rule through fear and not popularity. He relies on military strength to silence every dissenting voice. Although he officially retired from the military, he still wears military fatigues to intimidate the public when faced with a problem. To him the military is an institution to intimidate Ugandans rather than protect them against external aggression.

Second, Museveni is the only important person in the land. He is government spokesperson on any matter of importance. That is why we rarely hear his ministers say anything on policy. If you have an idea you send it to him and if he likes it, he internalizes it and announces it as his. People with complaints on any matter go to see him most of the time – not his ministers. By staying in the news he marginalizes everyone else and remains the only bull on the hill.

Third, using the instrument of stabilization and structural adjustment that called for privatization, export diversification, retrenchment of public servants and withdrawal of support from social sectors like education, healthcare and housing as well as agriculture, Museveni has destroyed human capital formation. He knows that hungry, unemployed, sick and illiterate people without assets are economically powerless and politically voiceless.

Fourth, besides destroying human capital, Museveni has also crippled institutions. Parliament has become a rubber stamp, the judiciary is full of NRM cadre members, the civil service is largely incompetent and civil societies are being strangled. Opposition parties are under attack. They have no chance of winning an election whether they compete individually or in concert.

Fifth, Museveni has carefully picked selfish, greedy and ambitious Ugandans from all districts that he is using to destroy the country. This explains in part the many ministers, presidential advisers and very many districts. Consequently, Uganda is on the verge of losing the concept of national unity.

Sixth, Museveni is luring people into urban areas to take their land and sell or lease it to outsiders who will then keep him in power. Ugandans must understand that land is life and only asset we have. We must not allow Museveni to sell or lease a piece of Uganda land. The British colonial administration was very wise and took the right decision on the land issue. Museveni should not forget that lesson.

Museveni and his party that have turned Uganda into a failed state by failing to provide public services and protect the security of the people, will therefore be forced out of power by means other than the ballot box. Therefore Ugandans should not waste their meager resources in preparing for 2016 elections if they take place. There are two main options at our disposal – the non-violent and violent.

There are those who reason that the non-violent option is the best. It can remove Museveni and his party from power without too much suffering. It requires galvanization of the silent majority who resent NRM including many in the NRM itself. It also requires winning sympathy of neighbors and other countries (especially those that provide aid and diplomatic cover) that are not happy with the way Uganda is being governed which could destabilize the whole region. The walk-to-work campaign was effective. It reduced new investments by close to fifty percent. Imagine if it had continued.

Non-violent means should continue with modification as circumstances change. Organizers need to be smart, flexible and pragmatic but not give up. Demonstrators at home and abroad should coordinate their efforts and speak with one voice for maximum efficiency and effectiveness. The formation of the umbrella organization known as United Democratic Ugandans (UDU) is the right decision.

Studies including by Chenoweth and Stephan (2011) show that civil disobedience work. However, given the experience of Libya they reason that military preparedness should serve as a backup arrangement.

The second school believes that force is the only language that Museveni understands. Those who oppose it argue that you do not attack an enemy where he is strongest. Start with where he is weakest. But use force as a defensive strategy when the enemy attacks first.

Every journey begins with a first step. We have already done that and there is no turning back. If we put Uganda first and not our personal or regional interests and ambitions, there is no reason why the opposition should not remove Museveni from power in the not too distant future. We have embarked on this journey so that our youth and children must have a place where to enjoy better lives than we have. That is what development or modernization demands.