For an individual, group or nation lasting success does not come easily. It has to be earned. Throughout my adult life I have observed that those who succeed work very hard, have determination and resilience and usually want to change the status quo: overcome poverty or end autocratic regime etc. They innovate, sacrifice and take risks. Those who take it easy usually don’t get very far. For example, students who miss classes, don’t do home work, complain about teachers all the time have no chance of success. During my school days children from poor families were urged to work very hard and break the chains of poverty and vulnerability. I have also noticed that those who are favored at work fall by the wayside soon after those who favored them leave the scene.
We have a proverb in western Uganda which says (crudely translated) that a wild animal that is to die does not hear the hunting horn when it is blown. It therefore stays in harm’s way until it is speared to death. The same can be said about Museveni. He does not appear to have realized that there is a wind of change blowing across Uganda. The wind which blew in his favor for the last 25 years has changed direction. How has this happened?
First, Museveni was picked in 1980 by some western powers for geopolitical purposes in the great lakes region. They helped him with finance, media and diplomatic cover as he removed old governments and installed new ones at a great cost in human life including the alleged genocide of Hutu in DRC, pillaging Congo’s resources and supporting militias. His role in Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and DRC is not in dispute. That assignment is over.
Second, Museveni was used to support SPLA in the civil war in Sudan. That assignment is now over.
Third, Museveni was used to experiment structural adjustment program as a development model after it ran into trouble in Chile and Ghana. The experiment failed miserably and was terminated in 2009.
Some Ugandans mostly from southwest Uganda know why Museveni took to the bush at an early stage in his life and why he is not bothered by rampant poverty and the associated ills but are afraid to speak up lest they lose their cushy jobs or worse. The late Ondoga Ori Amaza shed some light on Museveni’s early engagement in military activities in his book (1998) titled “Museveni’s Long March: from Guerrilla to Statesman”. He recorded that “… the 1980 elections constituted the provocation for the outbreak of the war, rather than its cause.
“The NRM-NRA documents from the early days of the bush war indeed leave one in no doubt that the aims of the war far transcended the mere attenuation of the electoral grievances that arose in the wake of the 1980 general election. In a 1981 article that sought to provide a ‘theoretical justification of the NRA struggle’, Museveni referred to the 1980 election simply as ‘what sparked off the rebellion’ and looked as far back as 1964 in his search for the origins of the ills the war he had launched aimed to cure. Later publications extended the frontiers for the search further back into Uganda’s colonial and even pre-colonial past”. It is true that Museveni’s motive is rooted in pre-colonial history based on the discredited Hamitic Theory and Rwabugiri’s military adventurism in the great lakes region.