Soldiers have a responsibility to protect

Soldiers in time and space including those in Uganda have a responsibility to defend the nation against external aggression and to protect the people against internal regime oppression. In protecting the people against regime oppression, soldiers can either remain neutral or join the people against the regime.

Since 1966, the people of Uganda have suffered various degrees of regime oppression. It’s time that Uganda soldiers do something about it by peaceful means in the first instance. Soldiers everywhere have exercised their responsibility to protect the people by either standing neutral while the people battled against an authoritarian regime or joining the people when the government used force to silence the people. For easy reference here are some examples.

1. During the French Revolution of 1789, some sections of the army (the French Guards) joined the Parisian demonstrators because they sympathized with their suffering made worse by unemployment, food shortages, rising prices. When the Third Estate that had converted itself into the National Assembly refused to obey the king’s orders, the king was reluctant to call on soldiers because he suspected they would refuse to carry out his orders. They were on the side of the people. The Bourbon dynasty was removed from power.

Uganda needs a leader with a vision and courage of Kabaka Mutesa II

The late Kabaka Mutesa II of Buganda stood firm against the proposed reforms by the late Governor Andrew Cohen. The Kabaka felt that they were not in the best interest of his people and his kingdom. He also rejected the idea of an East African federation because it was not in the best interest of the people of Uganda and his country. He was forced into exile for maintaining his stand. His vision and courage won the hearts and minds of all Ugandans who dropped their differences, joined with Baganda and demanded the return of the Kabaka. The Governor who was a sensible man read the reading on the wall and returned the Kabaka to his kingdom. Perhaps with the Kabaka’s advice, Baganda in Obote’s cabinet persuaded the government not to join the East African federation in 1963, inter alia, because the exercise was rushed. The idea was shelved until very recently.

Ugandans are hurting and demonstrating against the government

The sketchy sad news reaching us through the New Vision report of a police officer killed in the nation’s capital Kampala, use of tear gas to disperse demonstrators and arrest of opposition leaders including the president of FDC and the Mayor of Kampala. Since 2009 demonstrations are increasingly becoming common especially since the fraudulent presidential and parliamentary elections of 2011. It is important to realize that demonstrations take place to register that something is wrong and needs to be corrected by the authorities elected to represent the interests of the people who are sovereign.

In Uganda many things have gone wrong led by corruption and the situation is getting worse. The public’s outcry and advice from other sources have been ignored by the government. The economic crisis and the attendant unemployment of youth, hunger, disease and poverty have reached intolerable levels. The emergence of rare diseases affecting children including the nodding disease and the one deforming children limbs is a cause of deep concern. Market forces and the private sector are not equipped to address all these mushrooming problems. The state has to step in and ease the suffering of the people of Uganda.

Let us not start war against NRM government

We know that when a government fails to take responsibility for the welfare of the people, it should be removed from power. In the last 26 years NRM government has failed to deliver basic services. Ugandans have tried to remove it from power through the ballot box without success. And it is not likely to happen in the foreseeable future without term limits and an independent electoral commission. Logically, some Ugandans are reasoning that since the ballot box has failed, we must resort to war. But some Ugandans have said no. This does not mean that those who do not want war are cowards. It means that they are pragmatic. Starting a war against a recognized government regardless of how it came into power will be condemned by the international community and come to the government’s rescue. In fact, NRM would welcome such attack to give it a golden opportunity to arrest real and imagined enemies of the state in the name of national security against terrorists and put them away for good. It would also help NRM divert development resources to war efforts and impoverish Ugandans further without being blamed. So Ugandans eager to fight need to understand fully the environment at home and abroad in which they are operating before definitive actions are taken.

Let us not start war against NRM government

We know that when a government fails to take responsibility for the welfare of the people, it should be removed from power. In the last 26 years NRM government has failed to deliver basic services. Ugandans have tried to remove it from power through the ballot box without success. And it is not likely to happen in the foreseeable future without term limits and an independent electoral commission. Logically, some Ugandans are reasoning that since the ballot box has failed, we must resort to war. But some Ugandans have said no. This does not mean that those who do not want war are cowards. It means that they are pragmatic. Starting a war against a recognized government regardless of how it came into power will be condemned by the international community and come to the government’s rescue. In fact, NRM would welcome such attack to give it a golden opportunity to arrest real and imagined enemies of the state in the name of national security against terrorists and put them away for good. It would also help NRM divert development resources to war efforts and impoverish Ugandans further without being blamed. So Ugandans eager to fight need to understand fully the environment at home and abroad in which they are operating before definitive actions are taken.

How peaceful demonstrations will squeeze NRM out of power

Some Ugandans and non-Ugandans who have doubts that peaceful demonstrations alone will squeeze NRM illegitimate government out of power have asked for an explanation regarding the mechanism through which it will happen. Peaceful demonstrations have worked and their potential for human loss, injuries and displacement as well as destruction of property is much lower than the military option which can be invoked only in exceptional circumstances.

Uganda is a small country with a vulnerable economy dependent on external forces through raw material exports, donations and soft loans, foreign investment, foreign experts and advisers, tourism and remittances by Ugandans living abroad. All we need to do is to convince these forces including our neighbors and all members of the East African community to cooperate with the suffering Ugandans to change the regime through peaceful means.

Sustained demonstrations and civil disobedience will create economic disruptions and security forces response will generate instability. These developments will constrain production of goods and services, cause supply to fall below demand, raise prices and force more Ugandans including NRM supporters to join demonstrations in protest against intolerable hardship, denting the popularity of NRM illegitimate government. Deterioration in economic activity will reduce the tax base and government revenue forcing it to cut back on services further reducing its popularity.

Role of the military in restoration of democracy and human rights in Uganda

As Museveni reminded us, the principal role of the military is to defend the country’s borders against external invasion. He also indicated that when the government denies citizens the right to exercise their democratic and human rights the military steps in on the side of the people. Before considering why the Uganda military should be on the side of the people demanding the exercise of their rights, let us briefly review a few examples where the military has supported the people against oppressive governments.

1. During the French Revolution that began in 1789, sections of the army joined the people in their demands to reduce the excessive power of the king and privileges of the nobility and high clergy. The people also formed a national guard under the leadership of Lafayette to defend themselves. In desperation the king hired mercenaries, an arrangement that made him even more unpopular. This action together with an attempt to flee the country resulted in his arrest, trial for treason and execution.

2. The collectivization of agriculture in Russia under Josef Stalin generated intense resistance. Stalin ordered the army to intervene and force peasants to comply. Some sections of the Red Army refused because peasants had a right to resist and these soldiers came from peasant families.

The right thing

As a last resort, the people of Uganda – like people elsewhere – have the right to rebel against the dictatorial regime of Museveni who believes in Social Darwinism. Museveni is falsely convinced that Bahororo people were created with exceptional natural qualities including monopoly on military aggressiveness to rule by divine right and exploit other Ugandans with impunity. That is why he can hire his family members and other Bahororo people in key, strategic and lucrative areas without shame. Museveni does not believe in elections. For him elections are a western requirement to get foreign aid. According to him, elections will never remove Bahororo people from power! The 2011 elections confirm Museveni’s determination to rule Uganda. He openly rigged the 2011 elections largely by disenfranchising indigenous Ugandans and bringing in foreigners to vote for him and his NRM candidates from presidential to the lowest electoral office in the land.

Although Museveni claims he has read history, he appears not to have drawn the right lessons. There is sufficient evidence that rulers who believe in the divine right and military supremacy and impoverish and marginalize their subjects end up defeated.

What is needed for a demonstration to succeed?

Greetings fellow Ugandans and friends

The following requirements must be met in whole or in part for a demonstration, revolt or revolution to succeed.

1. There must be deep-seated, long-held grievances that translate into sufficient frustration and anger for change.

2. The goal must be clearly defined. The Peasant Revolt of 1381 in England was against feudal exploitation and war costs. The mob in Paris in 1789 was a protest against poverty, unemployment and rising cost of living. The Peasants in the French Revolution were against feudal exploitation and injustices. The Cairo Revolution was about unseating Hosni Mubarak.

3. There must be a spark for spontaneous demonstrations. The 1973 famine in Ethiopia sparked Addis Ababa demonstrations, introduction of Afrikaans language in Black schools in South Africa sparked Soweto student uprising, enforcement of a poll tax in England in 1381 sparked peasant uprising in southeast England. These demonstrations and revolts were leaderless and spontaneous precluding application for police permits. This is what is likely to happen in Uganda when peaceful demonstrations occur against illegitimate presidential, parliamentary and local elections.

If you re-elect Museveni you will lose your land

Let me clear two things upfront: (1) we Ugandans must stop the deceptive habit of pleading ignorance when things go wrong and (2) we Ugandans must know that Museveni derives his mandate and instructions to govern Uganda from external sources.

I meet Uganda ministers, MPs and officials regularly. I cannot tell you how many times I have heard them deceive us that they did not know that Museveni would do such and such a thing. They would argue that if they had had advance information they would definitely have advised him against such commission. But when you probe them, more often than not, you discover that they knew but did not have the courage to confront Museveni lest they lose their jobs.

Most MPs are there to protect their jobs and get Museveni’s backing for reelection and are not going to risk all that for the sake of defending their constituents’ interests – they are not there for that! So Ugandans do not rely on your MPs to present and defend your interests. Do not return MPs that have done a poor job. That way you send a message to the new MPs that if they do not work for you they will suffer the same consequences like the ones before them who lost re-election bid.