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A beautiful country is about to go down the drain

February 18, 2011 signaled the beginning of the end of Uganda’s history as we have known it. On February 18, 2011 Museveni massively rigged the election while the whole world watched and got re-elected to another five-year term. According to the interim report of the Commonwealth Observer group it was an election that lacked a level playing field. Museveni is now in a position to end the history of Uganda. In the next five years he is going to do the following things to achieve that goal.

1. Following his swearing in ceremony Museveni will form a cabinet of ‘yes’ men and women that will rubber stamp his wishes particularly in the ministries of foreign affairs, finance, internal affairs, petroleum and energy, lands and east African affairs. Ugandans are urged to also watch carefully the ministers of state he will appoint in these ministries. In many cases ministers of state are more powerful than full ministers. We need to know the profile of each minister and minister of state.

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What kind of revolution was Museveni talking about?

When Museveni graduated from Dar in Tanzania, he began to talk about revolution. This led into the 1981-85 guerrilla war that toppled the government of Okello (not of Obote which was toppled by Okello in July 1985) in January 1986. He continued to talk about revolution. Many Ugandans thought he was talking about the familiar development revolutions: agricultural, industrial and technological. And many gave him support. Museveni suggested that he needed at least 15 years to accomplish this revolution that would in the end metamorphose Uganda’s economy and society.

As time passed, revolutions in agriculture, industry and technology were not happening. While Museveni kept Ugandans waiting for the promised fundamental changes, he embarked on a different kind. Here are a few illustrative cases.

First, he toppled (or it is alleged) governments in Burundi (1993), Rwanda (1994) and Zaire (1997).

Second, Museveni silently handed over Uganda’s economy to foreign ownership, arguing that nationalization was a wrong policy. That is why – justifiably or not – an increasing number of Ugandans think that Museveni is a foreigner working for foreign interests. They reason that a true Ugandan cannot hand over the entire economy except land which he is likely to sell if re-elected.

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There are troubling developments in Uganda that must be fixed

A close friend of mine with many years of accumulated experience advised me on four things. First, a message must be repeated (orally or in writing) until it is properly understood. He explained that listening and hearing or reading and following a story are important but they must lead to a full understanding of the story and its implications on society. Until that understanding has been attained, the story must be repeated. Second, when a conversation is about a forest it should not be allowed to degenerate into a talk about trees. When you focus on one or two trees, you miss the larger picture. Third, during economic and political hard times, people tend to be short-term focused and miss the long-term dimensions. Fourth, three treasures must always be protected and used properly: population, land and institutions. Let us examine the fourth point with respect to Uganda.

Since Museveni came to power, Uganda has become a laboratory to test new ideas (Sebastian Mallaby 2004). Uganda provided laboratory facilities for shock therapy structural adjustment experiment starting in 1987 after it had been rejected in Ghana in 1986 as very problematic (Paul Nugent2004). The people of Uganda have paid a very heavy price. Uganda has now become a center for testing genetically modified crops (GM) and birth control.

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Dear Joe

Thank you for your comment on Tutsi Empire project that appeared in my remarks in Observer this week. The idea of Tutsi Empire is not new. It has been raised at national, regional and international levels. If you have been following the debate on this subject and history of relations between Batutsi and Bahutu and Bahororo and Bairu you will understand why the possibility of Tutsi Empire is alarming.

The donor community has expressed concern about this project. Problems between Museveni and the West (donors) began when Museveni dreamt of a Tutsi empire and together with Kagame invaded DRC. The donor mood towards Uganda changed (Business in Africa April 2001). President Mugabe was drawn into DRC war primarily to prevent the establishment of Tutsi Empire in Middle Africa (J. N. Weatherby 2003). During my mission to DRC, Rwanda and Burundi early this year, the region was full of talk about the imminent establishment of Tutsi Empire and I reported this in my article in Observer. Many commentators are of the view that it will be achieved by military, political or economic means. So when Museveni pushes the E.A. Political Federation many think he has Tutsi Empire in mind. And Museveni has not denied it.

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How Uganda got into the socio-ecological mess and why it will continue

To solve a problem, one needs to fully understand its causes first. The current challenges in Uganda represent many years of wrong policies and priorities starting in 1971. For instance, Amin’s wrong policy of ‘economic war’ which called on Ugandans to use every piece of land to boost production led to serious environmental degradation, warmer local climates and spread of disease vectors like mosquitoes that spread malaria in areas that had previously been too cold for mosquito survival. When economic and social conditions continued to deteriorate, Amin government identified population ‘explosion’ as the number one problem to be addressed through birth control. The problems got worse and forced Amin to invade a neighboring country to divert attention from the mushrooming domestic anger.

When NRM government switched to structural adjustment from the ten-point program it made a wrong policy choice by sub-contracting Uganda’s economy to the private sector in an unregulated environment. Because private sector is concerned with profit maximization, it engages in activities, labor practices and selection of locations that minimize costs. The government made other mistakes of focusing on economic growth and per capita income leaving equitable aspects to the imperfections of a trickle down mechanism of market forces, encouraging export diversification into foodstuffs without first determining domestic requirements, dismissing or marginalizing experienced Ugandans to create room for NRM cadres most of whom did not have experience in negotiating agreements and contracts and monitoring program implementation. So how did adverse social and ecological outcomes come about?

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NRM government is about to make another policy mistake

The introduction of structural adjustment program (SAP) in Uganda in 1981 coincided with the launch of a guerrilla war by the military wing of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) against an elected government of Uganda. Political economy analysts in the NRM carefully studied the impact of SAP conditionality in Uganda and Ghana. They concluded that the SAP model sponsored by the IMF and the World Bank was not suitable for Uganda. They drew up an alternative political economy model of a mixed economy based on private and public partnership. The model was published in 1985 as a ten-point program. It was a consensus blue print that was carefully prepared by Ugandans in consultation with a wide range of stakeholders. Thus, it was a home grown program.

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Museveni has deceived the world about democracy in Uganda

Not too long ago, I had a conversation with an old friend. We discussed a wide range of global issues and accidentally stumbled on Uganda. My friend confirmed what others have been saying that Uganda and Museveni have become indivisible – you cannot discuss Uganda meaningfully without putting Museveni at the center. He added a new dimension – Museveni is two persons in one. He elaborated by observing that what Museveni says about Uganda is often different from what he does. He emphasized that the difference between rhetoric and action is planned. He suggested an analysis of what Museveni says about democracy and what has actually occurred on the ground. Below are the findings.

Museveni has stressed that meaningful democracy must embrace “government of the people, by the people and for the people”. He adds that in the case of Uganda democracy must be three-dimensional: “parliamentary democracy, popular democracy and a decent level of living for every Ugandan… There should be an elected government, elected at regular intervals and such elections must be free of corruption and manipulation of the population… There must be people’s committees at the village, Muluka [parish], gombolola [sub-county], saza [county] and district level…

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Controversy about Rukungiri municipality

July 22, 2010

Chairman,

Rukungiri District Council

Dear Mr. Chairman

Controversy about Rukungiri municipality

As you know, I have complained to the President through the Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York, the Speaker of Parliament, the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament about the irregularities surrounding the upgrading of Rukungiri town to a municipality. I have also sent to you two correspondences on this subject. I have received a response from the Leader of the Opposition. My complaints which still stand include the following:

First, for Rukungiri unlike other towns the Minister of Local Government who has responsibility for towns and municipalities did not issue a notice in advance that Rukungiri town was being considered for upgrade to municipal status. Accordingly, there were no consultations whatsoever between district council representatives and their constituents especially those that are going to be affected directly.

Second, you, as chairman, convened an emergency session of the District Council when you knew that the people who would have sounded the alarm were attending a function in Kagunga sub-county which according to our culture you should have attended.

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In politics there is no permanent situation

Reading stories about broken promises between NRM and Buganda that were reached during the bush war in Uganda (1981-86) has reminded me what I learned in international relations classes: in politics there is no permanent situation and the enemy of your enemy is your friend. When the common enemy is gone as Obote did in 1985 the situation changed. And Baganda should have known that and adjusted accordingly.

During the Cold War Mobutu Sese Seko was an enemy of Communism which was the enemy of capitalism. Therefore Mobutu and capitalist Belgium, France and USA became friends throughout the Cold War period because they had one common enemy – Communism. With Communism out of the way in 1990 the situation changed. Mobutu who had been protected twice against rebel attacks and was showered with foreign assistance and diplomatic niceties was left to fend for himself when Angola, Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda forces attacked in 1996. Mobutu was defeated, fled the country and died in exile. His own trusted troops attempted to assassinate him at Kinshasa and Gbadolite airports when they realized that the situation which had kept them together had changed. He narrowly escaped in a cargo plane, fled the country and died in exile a few months later.

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Response to a reader on my comments

A reader made comments on my response to Jim Muhwezi’s statement (published in Observer June 2010) about alleviation of poverty in his constituency of Rujumbura.

The reader’s observations, if I understood them correctly, are that:

1. I have dwelt on the ethnic divisions of Bahororo and Bairu of Rujumbura.

2. Jim Muhwezi, Rujumbura’s MP, is popular in because he has done a lot for the people in his constituency.

3. Focus should be on improving household incomes rather than dwell on the Bairu/Bahororo divide.

Let me explain why an understanding of the plight of Bairu in Rujumbura cannot be achieved without considering a historical interaction between Bahororo and Bairu. A good doctor traces the history of his patient’s illness, disaggregates the possible causes, conducts lab tests and finally identifies the cause before prescribing appropriate medication to heal the patient.

Similarly, a good political economy analyst traces the history of the problem in a particular area, disaggregates possible causes, conducts research and identifies the cause or a combination of causes before recommending solutions.

You cannot adequately analyze the poverty of Bairu in Rujumbura without understanding the 210-year interaction between them and Bahororo. Therefore a brief history of their interaction is in order and here it is for easy reference.

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