Museveni who was unpopular in student, youth and party politics before becoming president has remained so since 1986. After hard political and military campaign, Museveni was disappointed and humiliated at the Moshi conference when he failed to get elected to either of the two most important positions of leader of the transition team to replace Amin or chairman of the military commission. During the transition period (1979 to 1980), he also realized that he could not lead either UPC or DP parties. Consequently, he formed his own party – Uganda Patriotic Movement (UPM) to contest the 1980 elections. UPM won one parliamentary seat! Museveni concluded that he would never realize his dream of becoming president or any other public office through the free will of the people of Uganda. He decided he would use force, bribes and tricks to achieve his goals.
That is how he began the destructive guerrilla war that lasted five years. He deliberately destroyed Luwero to put blame on Obote and have him overthrown (EIR 1997). Knowing that Baganda and Catholics were unhappy with Obote and his UPC government, Museveni tricked them that he would provide military backing to get them into power if they came together and form a political movement. Museveni showed no external interest in wanting the post of president for himself. He presented himself as a liberator with no political ambitions.
Very senior Baganda and Catholic leaders joined and led the Movement – the National Resistance Movement (NRM). Baganda also allowed Museveni to use their territory to wage the guerrilla war. Baganda and Catholics were convinced that the next president would come from either of the two groups. Museveni being Protestant and non-Muganda was thus excluded from the contest. The best he would hope for, they reasoned, was to be commander of the armed forces or minster of defense.
Towards the end of the war, the movement chairman passed away and Museveni became interim chairman pending elections for a new leader – that was the beginning of his tricks. Elections were never held. Eventually Museveni became chairman without being elected (EIR 1997 page 71). So by becoming chairman of the movement and commander of the guerrilla fighters Museveni automatically became head of state by default (according to many Ugandans) when he entered Kampala. Thus, Museveni began his presidency in 1986 on a shaky ground.
Museveni came to power with a long term vision for himself and his sponsors led by Britain in eastern and central Africa. To execute that vision, Museveni needed a strong political home base. The existing UPC and DP parties had to be dismantled, one at a time. He decided to begin with UPC through resistance committees. Since he had the backing of Catholics, he used them to destroy UPC. Catholics thought that their DP party would have a head start over other parties. After UPC had been dealt a heavy blow, Museveni then announced that existing political parties had been tainted with religious and tribal factionalism. They would not be permitted to engage in active politics for the foreseeable future. In frustration, a leader of DP remarked that by forming resistance committees Museveni was aiming at destroying DP as well. And he turned out to be right. UPC and DP are still (in 2010) in the intensive care unit recovering from Museveni’s heavy blows. So everyone had to participate in politics on individual merit. In spite of the advantages he created for himself, Museveni has remained politically unpopular.
Without pressure from the donor community, Museveni would never have allowed elections to take place in Uganda because he knew then and now that under open, free and fair elections he cannot win an election at party or national levels – because he does not know how to endear himself to people and never will be!
However, under external pressure, Museveni allowed presidential and parliamentary elections but on individual merit – not on party lines. Paul Seemogerere contested for president against Museveni in 1996. Sensing defeat Museveni harassed his opponent and actually chased him out of the western region. Museveni threatened in broad daylight that if he lost, he would go back to the bush and cause hell Ugandans would never forget. A combination of war threats, harassment of Ssemogerere and rigging enabled Museveni to ‘steal’ the elections.
In 2001 elections Museveni faced a more formidable challenge from Basigye. Museveni panicked, deployed the army, people got killed and many others wounded, corrupted leaders and snatched registration cards from supporters of Besigye as in Rukungiri district. Museveni won in a contest that was marred by “the worst election violence in the country’s history” (Business Africa April, 2001). This is a man who claims to have liberated Uganda and yet cannot win on merit.
Because of Museveni’s style of democracy at gun point, the public is losing interest in elections. The 1996 and 2001 election results (for which complete information is available) show a downward trend as quoted. “Museveni won approximately 74 percent of the vote in the 1996 elections, for which the turnout was 73 percent; hence, a strong 54 percent of the eligible voters endorsed Museveni in these elections. Museveni lost in only six of Uganda’s forty-five districts, all of them in the north of the country. In the 2001 elections, Museveni’s winning percentage declined to 69 percent in the recent elections with only 57 percent turnout of the voting population. Accordingly Museveni gained the support of only 39 percent of the eligible voters in the recent poll. In the 2001 elections, Museveni lost nine districts, including the urban Kampala and Mukono districts in the south. Moreover, the amount of government fraud and coercion increased dramatically in the 2001 poll, though government intimidation was also salient in the 1996 vote. In the preparations for the 2001 elections, some 11.6 million citizens were registered to vote, although the Uganda Bureau of Statistics has estimated that only 8.9 million citizens should be of voting age” (John F. Clark 2002). In 2006 elections, Museveni got a much lower winning percentage of 59 percent in a campaign that was again marred by brutal violence. Clearly Ugandans are losing interest in elections and – even worse – in voting for Museveni.
Because Museveni was not ready to contest in multiparty elections, his external backers allowed him a breathing space to organize himself. Consequently, “The new British Labor government has decided that ‘it will not press for multiparty reforms in Uganda. This is particularly significant because elsewhere in Africa, donors have insisted that aid depends on continued progress toward permitting parties to form and compete freely. What envy Kenyan president Daniel arap Moi must feel when he hears the praise that is heaped upon Uganda for its staunch refusal to allow parties” (Journal of Democracy April 1998).
Although Museveni was given much time and funds to prepare for multiparty politics, he remains vulnerable. His support in 2006 slid to 59 (when he campaigned against an opponent whom he put in jail for most of the time) from 69 in 2001 presidential elections. With all the money, security forces and organizational capacity and external backing, Museveni has not done well simply because he is not popular. Western powers will not make Museveni acceptable to the people of Uganda. Questions being asked about his origin (which he has failed to answer) and his destructive policies represent a clear message that Museveni will never win the hearts of Uganda voters and indeed the general population. If western support continues it will only succeed in killing democracy in Uganda and damaging Uganda’s relations with western countries that have strongly and visibly supported Museveni. The interests of Ugandans should be seen as more important than those of one individual – Museveni.
Museveni has already sensed defeat in 2011. Why are Ugandans saying this? Because he has already alerted the military to get ready and prevent his defeat (which he has disguised as violence) from taking place. That means that troops will soon be deployed in areas where he is trailing, harass voters into voting for him or stay away on elections day. Second, he has campaigned and rushed a bill to parliament promising chiefs palaces, vehicles, security, tax free allowances and a wide range of other things. The tacit message is that they will only benefit from the bill if their subjects vote for him in 2011 elections.
Apart from being meaningless, elections have become expensive. Candidates are selling their properties and emptying their bank accounts to fund campaigns. When they win they recover their assets by increasing their salaries and allowances as members of parliament – money that would be going into development. Those who lose become paupers because they have no way of earning a good income as many of them are not sufficiently educated.
Uganda has highly educated and experienced individuals with impeccable records but they are being blocked from the democratic process because of overwhelming western support Museveni is getting. Yet 25 years of Museveni’s rule has destroyed the country, the people and the environment. Poverty, disease, moral decay and environmental degradation have all moved in the wrong direction. Museveni is increasingly becoming unpopular nationally, regionally and globally.
While in New York in September 2010 for the United Nations General Assembly, many fellow heads of state or government avoided him according to information that has filtered through. Demonstrations by Ugandans organized against him in 2009 and 2010 in full view of reporters and their cameras from around the world have irreparably damaged Museveni’s credibility. That is why the people of Uganda want Museveni to go because he is messing up for them.
His overstay has become very counterproductive. To show him the exit, Ugandans will need a helping hand from western well wishers. Change of government in 2011 will not only arrest and reverse the downward spiral, but strengthen relations between the peoples of Uganda and those in western countries.
A special word for Ugandans – don’t allow Museveni to deceive you again with empty promises. Think about the future of your children and youth who are going through hell on earth right now suffering from jiggers, scabies, trachoma, hunger, insanity, joblessness, violence and human sacrifice etc, while those of the well connected are in excellent schools, eat more than they need, get treatment in excellent hospitals when they fall sick and even get good jobs before they graduate etc.
Go out in large numbers on elections day and show him that you are not afraid of soldiers any more. The world is watching every move he is making. Remind Museveni between now and elections day and thereafter that soldiers are to protect the people of Uganda and not to bash their heads. Also tell Museveni that some of the soldiers in the peoples’ army are your relatives that do not want their suffering to go on for another five years. Remind Museveni that the late Emperor of Ethiopia was taken away by the peoples’ army junior officers from his palace in Addis Ababa (for starving Ethiopian people while he fed his lions on large chunks of beef) while his generals and imperial guard watched.
Do not succumb to intimidation, bribes and tricks. Overcome divisions and unite as one people against a dictator that must go. Do not trade your birth right for half a kilo of salt or a mug of local brew! Change is coming, be patient.
When you show courage, unity and determination you will attract outside support. Technology is already showing the whole world how Ugandans are suffering. Pictures of hands and feet disfigured by jiggers and bare bones of under-nourished children etc are being shown on TVs and through other media in western countries that have donated generously for Uganda’s development but do not see positive results except $80 million presidential jet for a leader in one of the poorest countries on earth. There is no basis to continue support for Museveni and his failed NRM government.
Your ancestors have not forgotten you. And our Creator is already on your side. Amen.