Reading stories about broken promises between NRM and Buganda that were reached during the bush war in Uganda (1981-86) has reminded me what I learned in international relations classes: in politics there is no permanent situation and the enemy of your enemy is your friend. When the common enemy is gone as Obote did in 1985 the situation changed. And Baganda should have known that and adjusted accordingly.
During the Cold War Mobutu Sese Seko was an enemy of Communism which was the enemy of capitalism. Therefore Mobutu and capitalist Belgium, France and USA became friends throughout the Cold War period because they had one common enemy – Communism. With Communism out of the way in 1990 the situation changed. Mobutu who had been protected twice against rebel attacks and was showered with foreign assistance and diplomatic niceties was left to fend for himself when Angola, Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda forces attacked in 1996. Mobutu was defeated, fled the country and died in exile. His own trusted troops attempted to assassinate him at Kinshasa and Gbadolite airports when they realized that the situation which had kept them together had changed. He narrowly escaped in a cargo plane, fled the country and died in exile a few months later.
During colonial rule, Batutsi in Rwanda enjoyed close association with the colonial and missionary administrations. They got education, good jobs in colonial and missionary administrations, enjoyed a high standard of living and acted as trusted Belgian representatives under the system of colonial indirect rule. As independence approached the situation changed. Batutsi pushed Belgium to speed up the independence process, a situation that was unacceptable to the colonial authorities. Belgium accused Batutsi of being communists with Soviet bloc support. Belgium switched support to Bahutu. The result of this Belgium switch of support was that “the Soviet bloc in the United Nations General Assembly found themselves, by opposing the Belgian attitude, supporting the feudalist Batutsi. This support of the Batutsi by such a powerful bloc was one factor which encouraged the Batutsi refugees who had been forced to flee from Bahutu persecution, to hope that one day they would be able to return to Rwanda” (B. L. Jacobs 1965).
By 1990 the Soviet bloc was no more – the situation had changed. Batutsi turned to the Capitalist west for support which brought them to power in 1994.
When Rwanda and Uganda attacked Zaire in 1996 they were joined by Angola because Mobutu was an enemy of Angola and Uganda and Rwanda. Therefore Angola, Rwanda and Uganda became friends. With Mobutu the common enemy gone the situation changed. Rwanda and Uganda should have known that when they attacked DRC in 1998. The enemy camp had changed and Angola found itself fighting for Kabila against its former friends of Rwanda and Uganda during the 1996 war against Mobutu.
I have written this short story with Uganda in mind as it grapples with the political shifting sands leading up to the 2011 elections.