Revolutions that overthrow long established regimes happen swiftly. But conditions leading up to them take longer to crystallize. Revolutions thus occur in countries where regimes are incapable of adjusting to the demands of the people. Revolutions such as those in France, Mexico and Russia occur in stages. They are preceded by enlightenment or reform movements whose suggestions are ignored, then the regime collapses followed by a full scale civil war. Countries where revolutions occur exhibit similar characteristics. In France, Mexico and Russia the respective previous decade was marked by famine and economic crisis. The three countries were also predominantly agrarian in which the peasants who formed the majority of the population were exploited and starving. The three elements of hunger, economic crisis and agrarian society define today’s Uganda.
Regarding the reform movement, the French revolution was preceded by warnings of reform minded thinkers about the dangers of absolute rule and privileges for the nobility and high clergy of archbishops, bishops and abbots including non-payment of taxes. They recommended ways to reform politics, government and the economy. When Voltaire criticized the established religious and political order of things the leaders and privileged groups did not bother to take action while the public nodded in support and applauded. Rousseau in his “Social Contract” publication preached the return to the blessed old days when real sovereignty resided in the people with king as servant of the people, a position that Museveni held at the start of his administration. And Montesquieu called for the abolition of absolute monarchy and divine right of kings and establishment of a state in which the executive, the legislative and judicial powers are separate and work independently of one another.
Although different French classes had different demands they all agreed on a constitutional monarch and retention of the church. Beyond that peasants wanted their burden of taxation by the nobility and state eased. The middle class wanted economic and commercial restrictions removed; a fair system of taxation instituted and vertical mobility in church and state guaranteed which had been monopolized by the nobility. The nobility wanted to regain the power they had lost since Louis XIV ascended the throne in mid-17th century.
The situation in Uganda is similar to what prevailed before the French Revolution. In Uganda citizens are putting different weights on reforming the political, economic and social order. There are those more concerned with restoration of presidential term limits and establishing an independent electoral commission to ensure free and fair multi-party elections at all levels. For quite some time Ugandans have been calling for separation of powers as French philosophers did before the French Revolution. What we have in the Uganda presidency is close to what existed in France where kings starting with Louis XIV had become everything and were the state. Museveni has become virtually everything. At the start of Estates General (parliament) in May 1789 to discuss the future of France, King Louis XVI warned delegates that the absolute power of French kings should not be discussed. He then left Versailles Palace for hunting while his people were in the streets calling on him to ease the food and unemployment situation. Louis was out hunting on July 14, 1789 when Bastille prison a symbol of Bourbon monarchy was attacked by Paris mobs. In Uganda the power of the presidency needs to be reduced and increase the power of the legislature and protect independence of the judiciary.
The social situation in Uganda is also similar to that in France on the eve of the revolution. In France a shortage of food caused by bad weather and shortage of power to process grain into flour for bread pushed food prices beyond the means of 18 million out of a total of 25 million people. In Uganda where food shortages are caused in part by a policy of exporting food to earn foreign currency has pushed prices so high that some 10 million Ugandans out of a total of 33 million go to bed hungry every night with serious repercussions. Because some Uganda pregnant women are not eating enough, they are producing underweight children with permanent physical and mental disabilities. A large number of Uganda children might have smaller brain size than normal because they do not eat enough during the first three years when their brains are developing, jeopardizing Uganda’s future human capital formation in a world increasingly dependent on brain power that muscles.
Uganda’s economy is in crisis. Overall the growth rate is far below the 8-9 percent needed to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015 including reducing poverty and hunger in half. High interest rates, excessive devaluation of Uganda currency, poor infrastructure in road transport and energy have discouraged investment in labor intensive industries, hence youth unemployment in excess of 80 percent. The service sector which is growing fast is located mostly in Kampala, largely foreign owned and capital intensive. Before the revolution in France unemployment was very high and together with hunger served to mobilize sufficient mobs against the uncaring ancient (old) regime.
In Uganda as in France these signals are being ignored. Stories coming from senior officials in NRM government that current demonstrations have no chance of shaking the regime into taking corrective action represent an attitude of a government not only out of touch with the people but also uncaring. For example, a government that refuses to support lunch for small and vulnerable kids in primary school is clearly a regime whose motive needs to be looked into. One wonders whether this overall Uganda leadership detachment is due to the fact that Uganda’s leadership is dominated by lawyers and military personnel who see Uganda’s problems differently from economists and sociologists among others.
NRM needs to be reminded that demonstrations have toppled governments in developed and developing countries. NRM has no immunity against that. Well trained soldiers, heavy military equipment and sophisticated secret police did not save the French and Russian kings and their kingdoms because soldiers came mostly from poor families and sympathized with and joined them in the demonstrations. The Cossaks that were the most loyal troops to the Tsar happened to come from peasant families. And when it came to deciding which class needed support, they joined their unemployed and hungry brothers and sisters. The rank and file in Uganda’s army and police comes from peasant families. So, do not count on them one hundred percent to help you crush their brothers and sisters who are demonstrating for a good cause. Encouraging reports are coming in that some police officers are resigning or being fired for refusing to crush their fellow citizens. They should be applauded and be emulated by others and in the army as well.
Ugandans from all orders including progressive NRM supporters are calling for a transitional peaceful government as a safer way out of the impasse. They have extended an olive branch to the NRM government. The overwhelming majority of Ugandans at home and abroad do not need another bush war and another military government disguised in civilian clothes. Its damaging record since 1981 is there for all to see. It will be irresponsible for NRM leadership to reject the olive branch.