Revolutions succeed when the people are galvanized

There is sufficient evidence in time and space to confirm that when people are sufficiently galvanized and fully understand the causes of their pain, and who is benefitting from their sweat, they will revolt spontaneously. They only need a spark such as the enforcement of poll tax in England that led to a countrywide spontaneous revolt in 1381. In Rwanda, the Social Revolution of 1959 was sparked by Tutsi youth assault on a Hutu sub-chief. The introduction of Afrikaans in Black schools sparked student unrest that enhanced the demise of apartheid system in South Africa. The eviction of a dissident priest from his residence sparked a revolution that ended communist rule in Romania.

Galvanization of people takes place inside and outside the country. Archbishop Desmond Tutu galvanized Black South Africans from home. Oliver Tambo did so in exile. Civic organizations such as Solidarity in Poland and Charter 77 in Czechoslovakia galvanized their citizens from home. Radio Free Europe made a significant contribution to the 1989 Revolutions in Eastern and Central Europe from outside. In turn, the 1989 Revolutions influenced the introduction of multi-party politics in Africa.

Why has Museveni divided up Uganda into many districts?

One of the outcomes of UDU conference in Boston in October 2011 was recognition that there is an acute shortage of information about Uganda’s history, its place in the Great Lakes geopolitics and domestic political economy. It was decided that one of the main follow-up activities of UDU secretariat be civic education within the framework of the National Recovery Plan (NRP). I have consistently argued that:

1. You have got to identify the root cause(s) of the problem before attempting a solution;

2. You have to present research findings as truthfully and honestly as possible;

3. You have to study the actions of actors dialectically by looking for that which is not said because that is where the main motive is likely to be located;

4. You should not shy away from telling the truth for fear of hurting someone’s feelings. For instance, a doctor would do a disservice if he treated a patient with a sexually transmitted disease without disclosing the cause of the problem to avoid hurting feelings. The right thing is to tell the truth and ask that the partner also comes in for treatment so that the disease is cured once and for all, assuming that the two partners won’t engage in extra relations.

Ugandans have a right to know who their representatives are

To understand why majority Ugandans are getting poorer, jobless, hungrier, sicker, landless and are about to lose national sovereignty as borders are eliminated as suggested recently by the president of Rwanda when he met with a high powered Uganda delegation in Rwanda, one needs to know the origin of the core group of NRM and its motives to enable Ugandans to take informed decisions. To tell this story requires boldness because the risks are very high. But the story has to be told for Ugandans to read, discuss and decide on the way forward.

The original group led by Museveni formed some sort of association at Ntare School in the early 1960s, soon after independence in 1962. This group was motivated by the desire to regain domination of politics in the Great Lakes region. The independence of Congo (home of Banyamulenge or Batutsi from Rwanda), Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda introduced fundamental changes in the minority pastoralist and majority agriculturalist relations. The minority pastoralists who had dominated the agriculturalists for centuries were defeated during pre-independence elections based on majority rule. The association was formed to map out a road map to return Batutsi to power in Rwanda and regain domination in Ankole politics initially and Uganda and East Africa subsequently. The group launched an attack on UPC for rigging Ankole elections in order to gain the support of Catholic Bairu DP supporters. It also attacked UPC for lack of interest in the East African Community (EAC) project. Protestant pastoralists deserted UPC which they could no longer dominate and joined DP which they dominated. You need to remember that politics in Ankole is dominated more by religion than ethnicity. Museveni planted a seed among DP supporters in Ankole which would help him to mobilize Catholics throughout Uganda during the 1981-85 guerrilla war.

Western economic and political models have failed in Uganda

The collapse and abandonment of structural adjustment in 2009 and the disastrous February 18, 2011 presidential and parliamentary elections have demonstrated beyond a shadow of doubt that the two western models have no place in Uganda’s political economy. How did it all begin?

In 1981 the revenue starved government of Obote was forced to sign a structural adjustment agreement with the IMF in order to open the door for other donors to enter and support Uganda’s development efforts. The agreement had stiff conditionality including a balanced budget and low inflation. A combination of drought and guerrilla war necessitated deficit financing slightly above the ceiling agreed with the IMF. The latter would not budge and withdrew support at such a critical moment. IMF action meant that the door was shut to other donors because agreement with IMF is a prerequisite for foreign aid. Therefore, other donors had to leave or reduce support to humanitarian activities. Under the pretext of excessive human rights violations, the World Bank pulled out as well.

Lack of resources to meet the needs of the public and armed forces and other aggravating factors led to a split in the armed forces and a discontented population. Consequently, Obote’s government was overthrown in July 1985 by a section of the national army.

Museveni NRM 27th Anniversary Address

Museveni’s address was not directed at Ugandans but donors who have withdrawn support largely because of rampant corruption and mismanagement of public funds. He was I think also addressing the United Nations on one Millennium Development Goal – Achieve universal primary education. He focused on the glass half full, leaving out the empty half.

He was telling donors that his administration met the requirements or conditionality of stabilization and structural adjustment program (SAP).

1. That is why he talked about growth of the economy or GNI and per capita income;

2. That is why he talked about inflation control to single digits;

3. That is why he talked about export growth and diversification;

4. That is why he talked about accumulating international reserves;

5. That is why he talked about his determination to stamp out rampant corruption as part of good governance practice.

These were the conditions together with market forces, austerity and trickle down that were imposed by donors including IMF and World Bank which Uganda adhered to rigidly with serious social and environmental costs that he left out in his address. In other words, Museveni was saying that he did religiously what the donors wanted him to do except stamping out corruption which he has begun addressing and calling on the resumption of aid and technical assistance.

Guns don’t make peace, secure people do

When military leaders overthrew governments in the Horn of Africa and Great Lakes region beginning with Yoweri Museveni in Uganda in 1986, those who didn’t understand their real motives quickly christened them a new breed of African leaders in search of peace, democracy and development led by private sector and market forces. The new leaders hired lobbyists in western capitals and received support from sympathetic reporters especially after the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. In Rwanda, Bahutu were depicted as “bad guys” behaving like wild beasts that should be punished en masse. And Bahutu were hunted down with millions of lives lost in jungles and in camps of displaced persons. Reports of atrocities perpetrated by Rwanda and Uganda were ignored by the international community or issued statements of condemnation that were meaningless without the force of law.

Is Yoweri Museveni governing or campaigning for 2016 elections?

Ugandans are wondering whether Museveni is governing or campaigning. He was inaugurated at a scantly attended ceremony (Ugandans chose to meet Besigye at the Entebbe airport from Nairobi where he had gone for treatment after he was attacked by security forces) in May 2011 for another five-year term after fraudulent elections which lacked a level playing field as confirmed by the respected Commonwealth Observer Team.

Museveni’s new mandate came at a particularly difficult time of economic recession characterized by high prices particularly of fuel and food, high and rising unemployment of young men and women many of them university graduates. As confirmed by the former minister of finance, NRM had emptied the treasury to fund its campaigns at presidential, parliamentary and local levels. It also came at a time when Museveni’s role in the Great Lakes region was beginning to be recast by some of his sponsors in view of the continuing wars with genocide-like outcomes and the possibility he may have had a hand in them.

Guns don’t make peace, secure people do

When military leaders overthrew governments in the Horn of Africa and Great Lakes region beginning with Yoweri Museveni in Uganda in 1986, those who didn’t understand their real motives quickly christened them a new breed of African leaders in search of peace, democracy and development led by private sector and market forces. The new leaders hired lobbyists in western capitals and received support from sympathetic reporters especially after the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. In Rwanda, Bahutu were depicted as “bad guys” behaving like wild beasts that should be punished en masse. And Bahutu were hunted down with millions of lives lost in jungles and in camps of displaced persons. Reports of atrocities perpetrated by Rwanda and Uganda were ignored by the international community or issued statements of condemnation that were meaningless without the force of law.

If we don’t rise above sub-nationalism, Uganda development will remain stunted

Since I joined Uganda political debates, I have been concerned about the degree of sub-nationalism, albeit subsiding. I had hoped that the suffering we have experienced as a nation, not as individual regions or families, would bring us closer together to forge a common front, liberate ourselves and lay a strong foundation for sustainable peace, stability, security, prosperity, equity and happiness for all Ugandans. I was invited to co-host an English program on Radio Munansi. As the debates proceeded we began to lose focus on the country as a whole and drifted into sub-nationalism accusing one region for all the troubles in Uganda and vowing not to allow another national leader from there. Thankfully, others stepped in and we resumed the national debate. Based on the information we gathered among Ugandans at home and abroad and friends and well wishers, a consensus emerged that opposition groups needed to come together under one umbrella and speak with one voice for efficiency and effectiveness. Another consensus emerged that we should use our respective talents, expertise and experiences in a mutually reinforcing manner, regardless of region, religion, ethnicity, gender, age and size, etc.

EA federation to strengthen, not eliminate member states

While many Ugandans were celebrating the fall from power of UPC and Obote II government, Museveni was busy launching his hidden agenda by introducing concepts including metamorphosis, fundamental change, larger geographic entities and pan-Africanism. We did not bother to analyze what each concept meant in terms of Uganda’s interests. Recognizing that nobody raised questions about what he meant, Museveni went further. He embarked on regional wars and interference in the Great Lakes region. Development partners garlanded and christened him the dean of the new breed of African leaders while some African leaders expressed fear about what was going on in the Great Lakes region which contributed to “Africa’s First World War”. He was elevated to the high level of attending G8 Summits on a regular basis. Some people began wondering whose interests Museveni was serving.