Western leaders should not wait until Uganda starts to burn

There is increasing political, economic, social and ecological evidence that Uganda is heading for a deadly collision between the rulers and the ruled. It appears that Uganda leaders and development partners have not learned from Uganda’s history since the 1960s.

The second half of the 1960s was characterized by a serious political and constitutional crisis that paved the way for the 1970 military coup that brought Amin to power. Amin destroyed the country demographically (over three hundred thousand dead), professionally, economically and socially hoping that he would silence dissent and rule for life. He even invaded a neighboring country to consolidate support at home. Amin’s atrocities resulted in a war with Tanzania and Uganda rebels that left many parts of the country devastated.

The 1980 general elections were won by Uganda Peoples’ Congress (UPC) led by Obote and certified legitimate by international observers (based on ‘prevailing circumstances’). The verdict was rejected by opposition parties. A few groups unhappy with the democratic process took to the bush and waged a very destructive five-year guerrilla war forcing a section of the national army to topple the government in July 1985 which was six months later removed from power by guerrillas led by Museveni.

Museveni and his National Resistance Movement (NRM) came to power in January 1986 when Ugandans were tired, poor, hungry, sick and desperate. They needed a leader that would put an end to that misery and pave the way for genuine democracy in terms of free and fair elections, enjoyment of freedom, liberty, peace, security, stability and prosperity for all.

Museveni made a good start by forming a broad-based government of national unity that balanced the country’s religious, regional and ethnic diversity. Museveni promised he would step down once security had returned to the country. That was in 1986. It is now 2011 and Museveni is still in power and is seeking another five-year term because according to him there is no one that can fit into his shoes.

In order to stay in power for life and handover to his son who is being groomed openly, Museveni has assumed absolute authority. He believes he was God-send to save Uganda and own it. Museveni has ruled literally by divine right witness forcing through parliament the recent cultural leaders’ bill.

Museveni embarked on a policy of creating economic and political ‘stability’ to work with the business community and foreigners with the primary goal of staying in power. In collaboration with some western powers and corporations, Museveni embarked on a structural adjustment program that emphasized macro-economic stability: low inflation, balanced budget and export-oriented economic growth driven by market forces and the private sector leaving income distribution, social development and infrastructure to occur through a trickle down mechanism.

After twenty five years in power, Museveni and his NRM government has produced an economic and social situation that is characterized by highly skewed income distribution with twenty percent in the top income bracket enjoying over fifty percent of the national economy while 20 percent in the lowest income bracket has become poorer.

Uganda’s general standard of living has not reached the level attained in 1970. As a result, over 50 percent of Ugandans live below the poverty line (HDR 2010). Over 80 percent of Uganda’s youth between 15 and 24 years are unemployed of whom some 60 percent are university graduates. Some thirty percent of Ugandans go to bed hungry while Uganda has become one of the leading exporters of food to neighboring countries and beyond.

Eating too much cassava and maize without nutrient supplements has resulted in neurological abnormalities including insanity that is rising at an alarming rate and seriously undermining Uganda’s human capital formation. Insanity has been made worse by stress.

Lack of school lunch (Museveni has rejected school lunch) has forced many children out of school that marry and begin families in their teens thereby contributing to rapid population growth (keeping girls in school delays marriage and improves knowledge of family planning).

The undeniable spreading and deepening poverty is manifested in the re-emergence of diseases of poverty such as jiggers, scabies, trachoma etc.

Far from making life better for all Ugandans, economic stability has benefitted a few and condemned the majority to a state of permanent poverty, creating conditions for violence as witnessed in September 2009 when unemployed youth demonstrated in the capital city of Kampala. Over 70 demonstrators were killed and many others injured. The security forces used disproportionate power on unarmed demonstrators, setting off a time bomb waiting to explode.

Uganda’s elections since 1961 have been associated with irregularities that are getting worse. The 1980, 1996, 2001 and 2006 elections were all full of serious deficits. Appealing to the Supreme Court in 2001 and 2006 did not produce a verdict acceptable to the opposition.

Already there are bitter complaints of voter registration, campaign funds and deployment of instruments of intimidation by Museveni and his party. Many Ugandans believe that the February 18, 2011 election has already been stolen by the ruling party discouraging opposition voters to go to the polls in a week or so. Some Ugandans are already talking openly about resorting to non-democratic means because the political process has failed.

Political discontent has been suppressed by a complex system of intelligence and militarized police (military officers command the police department). As in the economic field, there is already a political time bomb waiting to explode.

Thus in Uganda an authoritarian regime has created a fake economic and political stability that has so far enabled a few families and foreign enterprises to accumulate wealth. While economic growth and low inflation and regular elections are necessary, they have not created conditions for the enjoyment of liberty, dignity, security and prosperity for all.

The disadvantaged Ugandans watched how the angry voters in Kenya’s Rift Valley province reacted in 2007 elections, they have watched what has happened in Tunisia and is happening in Yemen and Egypt and have witnessed how armed struggle has finally liberated the people of southern Sudan.

Angry Ugandans also know that South African blacks including their children decided to take on the militarily, economically and diplomatically powerful apartheid regime because they had no other peaceful options. They had seen that all their neighbors had liberated themselves through the use of force.

Ugandans are human beings like others. They feel pain like others and would like to get rid of it like others. Like other human beings they will apply any means to get rid of that pain. We have seen what the use of force does to human life, properties, institutions and infrastructure.

Let us prevent it from happening in Uganda by restraining Museveni, his party and security forces as Ugandans prepare to elect their leaders in a few days. Western leaders have a vital role to play in this matter. Museveni should not be allowed to once again use force to steal elections as a pretext to preserve law and order.

We appeal to the international observers to point out irregularities throughout the electoral process from registration of voters to the final announcement of results. International observers should deploy more of their staff in remote areas because that is where rigging is very serious. Urban voters are enlightened enough to take care of the situation. “Free and fair” elections and not “given prevailing circumstances” should guide the work of international observers and the recommendations they make.