Uganda‘s economy steadily drifting towards a cliff

Those who believe in prevention
rather than cure and those who love Uganda and her people should begin to pay
immediate attention to the rapidly deteriorating economic, social and
environmental conditions. A country – where twenty percent of the population
own over fifty percent of the economy, where an increasing number of people are
eating one meal a day of cassava or maize, where forty percent of children
under five years of age are stunted, where 12 percent of infants are born with
low weight because their mothers are under-nourished, where around 80 percent
of children drop out of school largely because they are hungry, where farmers
are encouraged to grow food for cash rather than for the stomach, where
peasants are diversifying into pigs and chickens as in the Middle Ages, where
parents are marrying off their daughters at tender ages in order to make ends
meet, where young girls are marrying old men already married with more than one
wife because they want to survive, where unemployment and the associated crime
and violence are on the rise, where rivers are disappearing, lakes are shrinking
and water tables are dropping, where wetlands, forests and fisheries are in
danger of extinction, where droughts and floods are increasing in frequency and
intensity, where two growing seasons are merging into one because of adverse
changes in weather patterns, where agricultural productivity is dropping, where
infrastructure and energy are falling behind demand, where conflicts over land
and water between herders, cultivators and game wardens are growing, where
education and health systems are decaying, where rapid economic growth is
delinked from social conditions, where educated and experienced Ugandans are
leaving the country, where income gaps between classes and regions are widening
and where the use of secondhand products including clothes has replaced new
ones – is a country in real trouble indeed.

 

Since independence in 1962, Uganda
has faced formidable political and economic challenges that have made it very
difficult to transform the vast human and natural potential into goods and
services for the benefit of Ugandans. The economic and social achievements of
the 1960s were trashed under the Amin regime. The economic achievements of the
early 1980s as documented by Kenneth Ingham (1994) were unsustainable because
of political instability and withdrawing of financial and technical support by
some major donors.

When the National Resistance
Movement (NRM) came to power in 1986, the government introduced a
well-thought-out and relevant Ten-Point Program which received overwhelming
support of Ugandans. The program was later appropriately expanded to fifteen
points. Ugandans were prepared to tighten their belts – including accepting a
30 percent service charge when the old currency was converted into a new one –
to facilitate the implementation of the program because Ugandans considered the
short term sacrifice as a worthwhile investment.

However, fifteen months down the
road, the government, under pressure from the donor community, abruptly changed
course. The mixed economy model based on public and private partnership was
swiftly replaced by the Washington Consensus (structural adjustment) model
calling for economic liberalization and free trade, privatization of public
enterprises, controlling inflation and raising interest rates at the expense of
employment, introducing labor flexibility to eliminate collective bargaining,
diversifying exports at the expense of food for domestic consumption,
retrenching public servants and removing subsidies in order to balance the
budget, focusing on productive sectors which excluded education and healthcare
and stressing comparative advantage which undermined industrialization efforts.
The December 1989 seminar of parliamentarians and other stakeholders endorsed
the Washington Consensus model.

To balance the budget, allocations
to social sectors such as education, health care and employment were
drastically reduced. Some schools were closed and others downgraded from
secondary to primary level resulting in long distances between schools and
homes that discouraged some students especially girls who dropped out.  School fees and other charges were introduced
making it difficult for poor parents to cope. Consequently, more children
dropped out, got married and began having families at an early age thereby
contributing to the rapid population growth. Poor working conditions including housing
and low pay forced many qualified and experienced teachers to abandon teaching.
The recruitment of unqualified teachers and high student to teacher ratios
resulted in poor quality education and graduates who are mostly functionally
illiterate.

Similarly the health sector has
experienced formidable challenges due to underfunding. In order to close the
gap, service charges were introduced for consultation and medicines. Poor
patients who were unable to pay have died of diseases that could be easily
cured. Subsequently, service charges were lifted under political pressure in a
country that is beginning to test democracy. However, this wise decision was
not matched by a corresponding increase in staff, medicines and supplies.
Reports and conversations with those closely associated with the health sector
paint a worrying picture of a system on the verge of collapse. Consequently
many Ugandans especially children and pregnant women have continued to die
needlessly. The departure of doctors, nurses and other medical professionals
has dealt healthcare a very serious blow.

From time immemorial, Uganda’s
economic growth has depended on natural resources. Before colonial rule
everything from food to clothes to houses to farm implements and to defense
tools etc, came from natural resources. With low population densities, the
resources were more than enough and shifting cultivation facilitated regeneration.
When Winston Churchill visited Uganda at the start of the 20th century, he was pleasantly surprised by the beauty, the biological diversity, the
mild climate, a dynamic and enterprising people he found in Uganda. He baptized
Uganda the ‘Pearl of Africa’ and decided it would become a center of production
that would contribute to the development of the whole world.

Under colonial administration
Uganda became a producer of export commodities and food for domestic
consumption. As the demand for exports and food for domestic consumption
increased there was more pressure on the ecological system as more land was
cleared under extensive methods of cultivation. Marginal lands were stripped of
vegetative cover to increase agricultural production.

The situation has deteriorated
further since the 1990s when the government embarked on an export
diversification drive to earn more foreign currency. Fisheries and forests have
particularly suffered extensive harvesting, wetlands have been drained to raise
exotic cattle and construct houses and offices. Cut flowers have replaced food
crops in areas around towns resulting in de-vegetation and pollution of soils
and water as the use of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides has increased.

More disturbing is the increasing
emphasis on livestock herding for commercial purposes especially of goats which
are known for destroying vegetation very rapidly. Apart from environmental
degradation, expanding herding will increase conflicts between herders,
cultivators and wildlife managers as the demand for land and water exceeds
supply.  

It is recommended strongly that
with the abandonment of the Washington Consensus (because it did not work) which
set Uganda’s current development parameters that are inequitable and
unsustainable, a new development agenda and new tools should be drawn up paying
particular attention to a strategic role of the state to provide infrastructure
and institutions that would promote sustained and sustainable growth and
equity.

Particular attention should also be
paid to the pillars of nation building – food and nutrition security,
healthcare, education and protection of the environment. For a start, education
should emphasize school feeding programs because food is a fundamental right
and not a luxury: it is indisputable that school lunches keep children in
school and improve their performance; compulsory school uniforms to eliminate
class distinctions and stigma, quality teachers in adequate numbers and an
enabling environment including housing as well as rigorous school inspections. Sporting
activities need to be emphasized again because of their social integrative
characteristics, physical and mental fitness.  

The healthcare system should
develop a comprehensive preventive and curative plan. The former should include
adequate and balanced diet, complemented by safe drinking water, sanitation
facilities and general hygiene. Health centers should provide incentives to
attract and retain staff, stock adequate medicines, equipment and supplies and end
corruption that siphons public resources for private use.  

Regarding environmental management
two things need to happen. In the short-term, resource use needs to be managed
sustainably to allow for regeneration and in the long-term a shift to knowledge
and service-based development.

These short, medium and long-term
measures will require the helping hand of a ‘developmental state’ to plan the economy
– while recognizing the role of market forces and the private sector – because market
forces and laissez-faire alone under
the Washington Consensus have proven to be insufficient for economic growth,
equitable and sustainable development.

With continued generous donor support including debt
relief and increasing inflow of remittances from Ugandans living abroad and
foreign exchange earned from Uganda’s diversified exports, the government has
enough revenue given Uganda’s small population of only 30 million. What is
needed is to refocus priorities in favor of four development sectors of education,
healthcare, employment and environmental protection.

All