Tag Archives: powers

The struggle in the Gt. Lakes region is between poverty and wealth

I have defined the Great Lakes region to include southwest Uganda (former Ankole and Kigezi districts), Burundi, Eastern DRC (North and South Kivu) and Rwanda. Since interaction between the two ethnic groups of Bantu and Nilotic peoples, the region has been characterized by ethnic conflicts of so-called Bantu agriculturalists and Nilotic (Tutsi) pastoralists. Bantu designation of all people in southwest Uganda is a linguistic convenience because Bairu and Batutsi are ethnically very different. Tutsi are Nilotic people that originated in South Sudan (not Ethiopia as originally thought) home also of Nubians, Acholi and Dinka, etc. Bairu and Bahutu are Bantu people that originated in the Cameroon and Nigeria border.

The Nilotic pastoralists or Batutsi entered the region around the 15th or 16th century poorer and less civilized than the Bantu people they found there. They adopted Bantu language, names and culture (the Tutsi title of mwami or king was originally Hutu’s). Batutsi resisted intermarriage with Bantu people: occasionally a prominent Mwiru or Muhutu man would be given a Tutsi woman to marry and then the man would be tutsified and join the social Batutsi club as a junior partner and abandon his ancestral people thus depriving Bantu of capable leaders. This was a tool of Tutsi dominating non-Tutsi people. These were politically-induced and arranged marriages, not through love. Batutsi have many distinct characteristics.

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Western leaders should not wait until Uganda starts to burn

There is increasing political, economic, social and ecological evidence that Uganda is heading for a deadly collision between the rulers and the ruled. It appears that Uganda leaders and development partners have not learned from Uganda’s history since the 1960s.

The second half of the 1960s was characterized by a serious political and constitutional crisis that paved the way for the 1970 military coup that brought Amin to power. Amin destroyed the country demographically (over three hundred thousand dead), professionally, economically and socially hoping that he would silence dissent and rule for life. He even invaded a neighboring country to consolidate support at home. Amin’s atrocities resulted in a war with Tanzania and Uganda rebels that left many parts of the country devastated.

The 1980 general elections were won by Uganda Peoples’ Congress (UPC) led by Obote and certified legitimate by international observers (based on ‘prevailing circumstances’). The verdict was rejected by opposition parties. A few groups unhappy with the democratic process took to the bush and waged a very destructive five-year guerrilla war forcing a section of the national army to topple the government in July 1985 which was six months later removed from power by guerrillas led by Museveni.

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Museveni must be having sleepless nights

Well placed people in Uganda and abroad who have watched Museveni’s rapid rise believe he has reached the top of a hill and has begun riding down a steep, winding and slippery road in a poorly maintained vehicle with unreliable brakes.

Museveni has had four reliable allies: western powers; Baganda and Catholics; NRM; and security forces. Museveni received strong western support for his willingness to implement the unpopular structural adjustment program (SAP) and to serve as a surrogate for one western group in the Great Lakes geopolitics. IMF and the World Bank wanted a place with a bold leader to develop structural adjustment into a development model for developing countries. Uganda was that place and Museveni was that bold leader who would not tolerate complaints about the harshness of SAP.

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